Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Marvin]

You could pretty much predict box office(opening anyway), by looking at the trailers this year.

I think quality has more of a role than fatigue does, weather fans want to admit it or not.
XFC the exception of course

 

[Electrix]

It just would have been nice to see a leggy big opener this summer.

There was too much competition this year for that to happen.

 

[jmc]

There was too much competition this year for that to happen.

Bridesmaids had great legs, I think it's more to do with the quality of the films more than anything else, you only have to look at Car 2 for that, by Pixar standards that underperformed immensely. Other than Potter has anything really been above average?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

First Class isn't an exception, it's obvious that the general public didn't like it as much as fanboys did. Same with Thor and Captain America.

The public loved the first two Spider-Man movies, Nolan's Batman films, Iron Man and X-Men and the like. They didn't love any of the comicbook films this year, that much is obvious no matter how many time fanboys try to spin First Class, GL's, Thor and Captain America's boxoffice numbers.

 

[Hurm...]

I SEE SPIDEY, you have a strong tendency to use the word "legs" in most of your posts regarding Box Office lol. Just an observation! I find it quite funny, actually. You must really have a thing for legs!

 

[Marvin]

First Class isn't an exception, it's obvious that the general public didn't like it as much as fanboys did. Same with Thor and Captain America.

The public loved the first two Spider-Man movies, Nolan's Batman films, Iron Man and X-Men and the like. They didn't love any of the comicbook films this year, that much is obvious no matter how many time fanboys try to spin First Class, GL's, Thor and Captain America's boxoffice numbers.

my dear I was talking about performance vs trailers.

XFC had the trailer of a winner, and under different franchise circumstances it very well may have been.

ergo it's the exception, because the trailer for the other comic book films justify their performance if you ask me.

 

[Marvin]

Woah the Potter vs TF3 war just took a turn...
colour me curious.

 

[jmc]

Is there a war between Potter and TF3 fans I'm unaware of?

 

[Marvin]

Is there a war between Potter and TF3 fans I'm unaware of?

fans? no.
but 3 films have a claim at the top spot this year.
It's been more closely followed on other forums.

 

[GunRanger]

First Class isn't an exception, it's obvious that the general public didn't like it as much as fanboys did. Same with Thor and Captain America.

The public loved the first two Spider-Man movies, Nolan's Batman films, Iron Man and X-Men and the like. They didn't love any of the comicbook films this year, that much is obvious no matter how many time fanboys try to spin First Class, GL's, Thor and Captain America's boxoffice numbers.

Well Thor is the only movie of the summer to repeat at #1. It's not spin to say it was a very successful movie. It was, especially since people didn't expect it to do as well given its concept and popularity.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

By the end of this weekend, Potter will approach $320 million where Transformers will be close to $340 million and the former has been outpacing the latter during the same time-frame. Potter's gonna win.

Well Thor is the only movie of the summer to repeat at #1.

Nope. Transformers 3 also.

 

[Marvin]

Well Thor is the only movie of the summer to repeat at #1. It's not spin to say it was a very successful movie. It was, especially since people didn't expect it to do as well given its concept and popularity.

I'm not so sure it was the only one.
Release dates are everything these days.

 

[Marvin]

By the end of this weekend, Potter will approach $320 million where Transformers will be close to $340 million and the former has been outpacing the latter during the same time-frame. Potter's gonna win.

It's very possible
It being front loaded and not playing on more screens then any film ever may factor in a week and a half from now when it hits 340 dom. Time will tell.

once it looses Imax.
still a billion in 2 weeks is unheard of, front loaded or not.

I wonder if apes will diffuse the audience, doesn't it have one of the potter kids in a major role?

 

[Liam_H]

It's very possible
It being front loaded and not playing on more screens then any film ever may factor in a week and a half from now when it hits 340 dom. Time will tell.

once it looses Imax.
still a billion in 2 weeks is unheard of, front loaded or not.

I wonder if apes will diffuse the audience, doesn't it have one of the potter kids in a major role?

Billion in 2 weeks is impressive but its just the rush factor. The movie is dropping off normally like any other Potter movie. Avatar hit $1 billion in about 17 days I think.

Tom Felton...who plays Draco...is in Rise of the Apes but I doubt many people will see that because of him. If it was one of the trio maybe but still unlikely.

 

[Marvin]

yea it's still going to finish off around ROTK, which is a testament to a few things.

The down side to finale's
you get these crazy box office performances (such as 1 billion in 2 weeks), something worthy of an immediate sequel in any of the 9 realms, but it's not going to happen lol. Executives lose their jobs under different circumstances.

If TF and LOTR can do it, I'm sure they're find a way to make another potter film some how.

 

[danoyse]

No, the Potter films are done.

LOTR gets another film (two films) because there are more books. TF gets more films because they're toys.

Harry Potter is seven books, and that's it. Story's done.

 

[Marvin]

No, the Potter films are done.

LOTR gets another film (two films) because there are more books. TF gets more films because they're toys.

Harry Potter is seven books, and that's it. Story's done.

I wouldn't bet my life on that.

Too much money at stake..unlike Golding the write...rather owner/creator of the potter books can still write. Look for a spin off announcement after the films theatrical run.

 

[danoyse]

I wouldn't bet my life on that.

Too much money at stake..unlike Golding the write...rather owner/creator of the potter books can still write. Look for a spin off announcement after the films theatrical run.

Well, you keep waiting for that, then.

The studio can't force her to write another book. There are already a ton of Potter projects in the works: Pottermore and the e-book release happens this fall, they're reportedly planning to expand the theme park at Universal, they're opening the studios in the UK where the films were shot as a big tourist attraction. That's all going to make a bloody fortune.

But the movies are done.

 

[Wheels]

No, the Potter films are done.

LOTR gets another film (two films) because there are more books. TF gets more films because they're toys.

Harry Potter is seven books, and that's it. Story's done.

I could see WB making a Tales of Beedle the Bard movie.

 

[danoyse]

I could see WB making a Tales of Beedle the Bard movie.

There's not enough there for a movie. It's just a collection of short stories that are about 4-5 pages long and they're not part of the Potter stories (none of the characters from the 7 books are involved), outside of the Three Brothers story that was already told in Deathly Hallows.

 

[Marvin]

Well, you keep waiting for that, then.

The studio can't force her to write another book. There are already a ton of Potter projects in the works: Pottermore and the e-book release happens this fall, they're reportedly planning to expand the theme park at Universal, they're opening the studios in the UK where the films were shot as a big tourist attraction. That's all going to make a bloody fortune.

But the movies are done.

no sweat off my back.

I just have a feeling we're going to hear about her writing a tie in of some sort and the suits will be knocking on her door not long after.

 

[DACrowe]

Uh yeah, well, he makes movies for ****ing children, and anyone who wants not not be a nitpicky uptight adult for 2 hours.

Spielberg mostly makes films "for children," at least pre-Schindler's List. So did Zemeckis in his prime. In the last decade I'll throw out Peter Jackson, Sam Raimi, Alfonso Cuaron (at least once), Brad Bird, Matthew Vaughn, JJ Abrams and John Lasseter, as well.

Making movies for children (or all ages, if you want to be more precise) does not excuse crap.

 

[DACrowe]

Fatigue has definately set in. Thor's legs were decent and so were First Class (CA's remains to be seen but obviously it's legs won't be good) but they still weren't even as good as the first X-Men's and the first X-Men did not have good legs. Even with Thor you would think that a movie that had a 48% drop in it's second weekend would have had a 3.0multipler. But yeah, Thor wins the legs sweepstates eventhough it itself didn't have a great run. And 3D ticket sales are the only reason for that 270mil number.

I'm not trying to pick on these films but it's strange that none of them could make 200mil domestically. Not Thor with it's coveted first weekend of May slot, not GL, not First Class with it's amazing reviews and not Captain America with it's good reviews. I'm not expecting Iron Man numbers but the fact that none of these films even cracked 200mil says a hell of alot.

The party is over and I think that studios will eventually realize that Batman and Spider-Man and the like will always survive but those are exceptions to the rule.

Very well said. I think the take away from this year will be that studios are going to move away from the non-A-listers in a few years....except for Marvel itself, which is an oddity. Marvel Studios exists to adapt Marvel comic books into movies. Even if most of 'em aren't megahits, that is their entire business strategy. Unless they try to diversify into adult-oriented comic book fare (which is a mixed bag to say the least--for every Blade or V For Vendetta there are literally three Punishers) or simply start producing non-Marvel based films, which is unlikely as they're now in the House of Mouse, I'm not sure what they can do except hope that audiences never grow fatigued enough that they can't top $150 million U.S.

However, for those hoping for more ambitious Marvel films in the future--save for possibly the Avengers, I don't see that happening.

As for DC? They're done with the non-Bats and Supes characters. I'll also be curious to see if Fox makes another non-Wolverine X-Men movie again.

 

[jmc]

^ I agree with that, I hear all this talk about other second and even third tier character movies being planned and my reaction is like 'Who's gonna watch that?'. If this year has proven one thing is that you can't make a living off second tier characters, Thor, Cap, X-men, they all did ok business, (GL crashed and burned of course) but the box office was not enough to guarantee a solid income, factor in 3D inflation and it's even less impressive. The only option is to reduce the production costs because as of now money is being spent on these characters as if they are house hold names.

 

[Drizzle]

I could see WB making a Tales of Beedle the Bard movie.

If anything, that would be a direct-to-DVD animated film similar to "Tales of the Black Freighter" from Watchmen.