Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Mrs. Sawyer]

 

[roach]

So what do you guys think HP's dominance will do to Captain America?

its gonna depend on how HP does on sunday and thru out the week....if its strong Cap got some worrying to do

 

[Spideyfan93]

Does anyone else think Captain America looks like 90 percentage wise movie for RT?

It looks like it could rank up with the best.

 

[Liam_H]

So what do you guys think HP's dominance will do to Captain America?

HP will affect Cap's BO in some way but if Cap still debuts with 60+ million its still a success. Even if its #2.

They're afraid of Spidey and TDKR



Captain America will do FINE. It'll be okay. Unless the movie is horrible but it looks like one of the best comic book films to release ever.

Probably since Spider-Man is opening during the same slot as twilight does in the summer. A couple of weeks later TDKR comes.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I hope it's a Sherlock Holmes situation at least, but only 3 movies have ever finished the weekend 2nd with more than $50 million.

 

[Liam_H]

Does anyone else think Captain America looks like 90 percentage wise movie for RT?

It looks like it could rank up with the best.

Early buzz has been positive but that's always misleading. But still I think 90% on RT is pretty hard. I'm still amazed Potter has a genuine 97% on RT, thats like a pixar movie.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Or the social network

 

[Liam_H]

I hope it's a Sherlock Holmes situation at least, but only 3 movies have ever finished the weekend 2nd with more than $50 million.

I could be wrong. But off the top of my head I can only think of Wanted and Day After Tomorrow. What's the third one?

 

[Spideyfan93]

If Armond White gives Cap a good review I'll be worried for Cap's critical success.

 

[Liam_H]

^LOL, indeed. He crushed my hopes for Terminator Salvation being a good movie.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I could be wrong. But off the top of my head I can only think of Wanted and Day After Tomorrow. What's the third one?

Sherlock Holmes, the most recent.

If Armond White gives Cap a good review I'll be worried for Cap's critical success.

He gave GL a bad review. He won't give Cap a good review because Cap's white.

 

[Spideyfan93]

Oddly enough, his thoughts on Hangover Part II were logical thoughts.

Sometimes Armond is right, but most of the time he's just trollific *** swipe.

And the embargo for Cap isn't lifted until Wednesday so...hoping for the best here.

 

[chaseter]

TDK was waaaay better than HP7-2. I don't see what is so special about this movie, it's not some sacred cow. It's the EIGHTH movie in an anthology...

You mad?

 

[ALP]

Apparently Armond White hates everything.


And I can't believe that Joe Johnston has finally made a genuinely good film- he has no vision whatsoever.

 

[Spideyfan93]

Apparently Armond White hates everything.


And I can't believe that Joe Johnston has finally made a genuinely good film- he has no vision whatsoever.

The Rocketeer

October Sky

No vision......................................................okay.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

^ This.

 

[hippie_hunter]

And I hate Twilight more for riding the HP train with the Part 1/Part 2 gimmick. For Harry Potter, it feels justified but for Twilight.....just why?

Money. Summit really doesn't have anything else besides Twilight so they want to extend it as much as they can. Before Twilight, Summit released flop after flop after flop. And releasing the last adaptation as two films, released a year apart, gives Summit some time to find something else to cash in on.

At least Warner Bros. has the Hobbit, DC Entertainment, Hanna-Barbera, the Stand, and many other properties.

 

[ALP]

The Rocketeer

October Sky

No vision......................................................okay.

Wow, two films from a man in his 60s. How terrific.

The Rocketeer was written and in development for many years before Johnston was involved. Dave Stevens did a bit of design and casting for the film himself, that should be a testament. I however cannot comment on the production of October Sky, not sure about that one.

Joe Johnston is usually considered a director for hire. If the original director drops out a project or they want a movie done quick that's been in development for a while, they call old man Joe.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's very hard for two films to make over 50mil in one weekend so Marvel does have something to worry about.

Lets say Potter does 185-190mil over the weekend and then it drops lets say 65ish% because of extreme frontloading. Thats still 64 to 67mil for it's second weekend. It would be very hard for Cap to beat that or even get 50mil because thats just not something that happens every given weekend. It could happen but it's going to be a hard feat. If Potter drops 70 to 75% I could see Cap breaking out but right now, it's always worisome to release your film after a opener this big.

I don't see both Potter and Cap making 65+mil next weekend...something might have to give. We will see if thats even possible next weekend I guess.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Wow, two films from a man in his 60s. How terrific.

The Rocketeer was written and in development for many years before Johnston was involved. Dave Stevens did a bit of design and casting for the film himself, that should be a testament. I however cannot comment on the production of October Sky, not sure about that one.

Joe Johnston is usually considered a director for hire. If the original director drops out a project or they want a movie done quick that's been in development for a while, they call old man Joe.

The guy wasn't a director until the 90s. He also directed Jumanji and Honey, I shrunk the kids.

 

[ALP]

It's very hard for two films to make over 50mil in one weekend so Marvel does have something to worry about.

Lets say Potter does 185-190mil over the weekend and then it drops lets say 65ish% because of extreme frontloading. Thats still 64 to 67mil for it's second weekend. It would be very hard for Cap to beat that or even get 50mil because thats just not something that happens every given weekend. It could happen but it's going to be a hard feat. If Potter drops 70 to 75% I could see Cap breaking out but right now, it's always worisome to release your film after a opener this big.

I don't see both Potter and Cap making 65+mil next weekend...something might have to give. We will see if thats even possible next weekend I guess.

In theory, why would it be so difficult for two films to make over $50 million in one weekend? If one film can make say, $100 Million in a single weekend then why can't two films make $50 Million apiece? Just as many people are going to the theater, just not to see the same thing.

The guy wasn't a director until the 90s. He also directed Jumanji and Honey, I shrunk the kids.

Granted, I suppose I could give you those.

 

[Marvin]

If cap gets better reviews than Xmen, that will be interesting.
Embargo's of any sort let alone 24 hours before release aren't a good sign.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The guy wasn't a director until the 90s. He also directed Jumanji and Honey, I shrunk the kids.

I liked Hidalgo too. Considering he's only done a handful of movies as a director, his track record isn't that bad. He's not a great director, but he's not Uwe Boll either.

 

[Marvin]

I liked Hidalgo too. Considering he's only done a handful of movies as a director, his track record isn't that bad. He's not a great director, but he's not Uwe Boll either.

right up Marvel studio's alley

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If cap gets better reviews than Xmen, that will be interesting.
Embargo's of any sort let alone 24 hours before release aren't a good sign.

I'm not saying that it going to get great reviews or bad but they put embargos on movies that get good reviews all the time. If there aren't any reviews up on Monday then you can worry but right now expecting something like GL is too early of a call and a bit cynical.