Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Marvin]

It's funny people always under predict Potter's opening weekend and overpredict it's legs.

but they almost always stroll to about a billion and open with forgettable numbers...

I don't agree with that it won't happen, there is a chance. SM3 opened with $151 million due to how well received that first two in the trilogy was. Also it was marketed very well. TDKR have two great films that is also very well received by the GA, maybe even more so than the first two spider-man movies.

Plus if estimates hold, Potter only made $168 million, beating TDK by about $10 million. Would it really be that difficult for TDKR to surpass that based on the good will of the previous two movies and you factor in inflation. Nolan's bat films have more appeal to the GA than Potter does as evidenced by the legs. It depends on how WB handles the marketing for this film, they have to sell that Bane and Catwoman can be interesting (hopefully people won't keep thinking Bane is just some brute due to B&R).

History would show that nolans bat films do decent without the joker.

 

[chaseter]

I think that TDKR's can open with the record but I don't see it making over 533mil. The fact is, although Catwoman is hugely popular, The Joker is far more popular than her. I'm thinking 475mil at best for it's total.

TDKR will not get 475 domestic. Potter won't even get to 475 domestic.

 

[terry78]

How long will it take for WB to discover they can strike gold by creating the ultimate fan-fiction wet dream of Harry Potter meets Batman at some point down the line?

 

[DACrowe]

We saw this this afternoon. Not that I can say a lot that hasn't been said. So, I'll say it was a very fullfilling finale and a satisfyingly good movie. The highlights were Snape's memories and Harry's journey to "death" and back. Also, Longbottom's speech and Hogwarts's last stand.

If I had any complaints it is that (like all of the HP films Yates has done) the death scenes were not handled with the right TLC. They were either anti-climactic (Voldormort's) or much like how he did Snape and Dumbledore....blink and you miss it. I'm of course referring to Lupin, Tonks and Fred (I know that is how JKR wrote those last three but it didn't work on the page either, IMO).

Anywyas, those are overall nitpicks. I thoroughly enjoyed this movie as did the whole audience. I still think the middle three films of POA, GOF and OOTP were better simply because of better direction in POA and a more fun tone and style in the case of all three If the first two films were too kiddy, the last three films (especially DHP1) were too drearily dark and somber, so much so it took most of the fun out of the stories. DHP2 is the best effort Yates did in the last three to restore that sense of wonder to the world of Harry Potter.

8.5/10

An excellent finish, Harry. See you in the reboot.

 

[The Morningstar]

History would show that nolans bat films do decent without the joker.

History? There has only been 2 Nolan Bat films. And Begins didn't exactly set the world alight.

People shouldn't underestimate the pulling power of a character like Joker. A villain who is as famous and popular as the hero himself. Who was played by a guy who died in mysterious circumstances leading up to the movie.

I think TDKR will do big numbers, but not TDK big.

 

[iskrew]

^ I was about to say the same thing. My friends and I actually watched TDK just because Heath Ledger just died, and we got curious. We didn't even love batman, if you know what I mean.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

So what about attendance and the whole 3D issue...?

Just how significant a win is this over The Dark Knight? Although Potter deserved every penny.

 

[Marvin]

History? There has only been 2 Nolan Bat films. And Begins didn't exactly set the world alight.

People shouldn't underestimate the pulling power of a character like Joker. A villain who is as famous and popular as the hero himself. Who was played by a guy who died in mysterious circumstances leading up to the movie.

I think TDKR will do big numbers, but not TDK big.

and how is that any different from what I just said?

decent.
would you rather I have said bad?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

#Potter does slightly better than estimated w/ $169.3M revised opening wknd.

http://***********/#!/giteshpandya/status/92959318466494465

 

[Doctor Jones]

So Jamie, how does this look for Cao next weekend?

 

[roach]

So Jamie, how does this look for Cao next weekend?

I think its gonna depend on the BO for today and tomorrow....

 

[Doctor Jones]

I see. That is something of an unpredictable thing right now. With any other HP film, it could be more predictable, but with this it could go either way.

 

[KangConquers]

Okay I'm admitting defeat...I was wrong with my Cap prediction of 375 Million worldwide.

Cap will do 54 M OW, 148 M Domestic Total, 160 M Foreign Total, for barely over 300 Million worldwide.

 

[marvelman2006]

I was so right about green lantern. I predicted back in early may that it would stop around 120 million. I more surprised super 8 didnt catch on and have longer legs but still a success though.

 

[Marvin]

Okay I'm admitting defeat...I was wrong with my Cap prediction of 375 Million worldwide.

Cap will do 54 M OW, 148 M Domestic Total, 160 M Foreign Total, for barely over 300 Million worldwide.

Why the change?
and why so much lower than Iron man, it will most likely be a "better film"

 

[roach]

I see. That is something of an unpredictable thing right now. With any other HP film, it could be more predictable, but with this it could go either way.

see with movies that went big...using Avatar as an example...on the off peak days like sunday and monday it was still posting big numbers. If Potter continues to post big number it could be a problem

 

[KangConquers]

Why the change?
and why so much lower than Iron man, it will most likely be a "better film"

Something about a pimply British wizard.

Great WOM is the only thing preventing this thing from being a Green Lantern like flop.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I don't get the doom and gloom for Cap at this point. I think it will perform better than just over 300 mil WW.

 

[KangConquers]

I don't get the doom and gloom for Cap at this point. I think it will perform better than just over 300 mil WW.

Spider-Fan, you're one of my favorite, maybe my favorite person on the hype...we have a lot in common and have great conversations on and off the boards. I say this without any disrespect but there's a lot going against Cap right now; Harry Potter's gross, current tracking, a sizable (though not super large budget), Superhero fatigue etc.

I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just not too pleased with the current odds facing Cap.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Spider-Fan, you're one of my favorite, maybe my favorite person on the hype...we have a lot in common and have great conversations on and off the boards. I say this without any disrespect but there's a lot going against Cap right now; Harry Potter's gross, current tracking, a sizable (though not super large budget), Superhero fatigue etc.

I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just not too pleased with the current odds facing Cap.

I think everyone is overestimating Potter. It's going to be #1 next weekend in all likelihood, yes. But, it will prob crap out at 70 mil tops. I don't think superhero fatigue is real at all (I think that is media speak for trying to put a movie down...a good movie is a good movie...I don't hear anyone complain about getting slasher movies in October). Plus, this didn't cost GL money. Cap doesn't have to gross as much as GL did to be successful.

 

[Marvin]

Something about a pimply British wizard.

Great WOM is the only thing preventing this thing from being a Green Lantern like flop.

That's interesting considering this has pretty much been the apparent argument from the start. Seeing is believing I guess.

Admittedly a lot of people have been proven wrong in some way shape or form on some of their predictions. If Gl was a good film, my numbers would have probably been right.

 

[The Morningstar]

I think Cap will do a Sherlock Holmes and fly under the radar of a box office monster to a nice amount of coin. I think it'll do well in the US, over 200 million. And around 100-150 million international. 400 million overall.

 

[chaseter]

No way is Cap passing 200 domestic.

 

[The Morningstar]

Why not? It's a film about Captain America, of course it's gonna be big in the US.

 

[KangConquers]

Why not? It's a film about Captain America, of course it's gonna be big in the US.

Something about a pimply British wizard.

See what I said there.