Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Mrs. Sawyer]

You were doing so good until you brought romantic comedies, which has nothing to do with blockbuster potential.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Big $18M MON for HP8, $187.2M 4day. Heading to about $230M in 1st week: #2 alltime after DarkKnight's $238.6M.

http://***********/#!/giteshpandya/status/93320480987160576

 

[Marvin]

$2 million less and it would be #3 all time after a week, gonna be a close call.

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=7&p=.htm

 

[jmc]

I'm amazed that TDK might hold out.

 

[Liam_H]

Surprised that TDK might keep the full week record? I'm not at all cause this film is not as accessible to the general audience as TDK was.

 

[Anita18]

Surprised that TDK might keep the full week record? I'm not at all cause this film is not as accessible to the general audience as TDK was.

Not just that, Harry Potter has always been pretty frontloaded.

 

[Doctor Jones]

$18 million is still a lot for a weekday.

 

[Liam_H]

$18 million is still a lot for a weekday.

Very true but its pretty safe to say that Potter is not going to hold up as well as TDK in terms of legs.

 

[chaseter]

TDK had no competition it's second weekend. Cap comes out this weekend and that is going to split both of their box offices. TDK will still make more overall.

 

[rashad]

$18 million is still a lot for a weekday.

Yes it is especially for a non holiday. TDK hold's the record with $24.4 million.
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/nonholiday.htm

 

[superion]

The $18 million on Friday is about the same as Transformers 3 first Monday. HP is currently about $7 million ahead of TF3. It definitely will not beat the Dark Knight's total domestic box office thought it will crush it in the foreign BO.

Depending on how HP holds up these next few days we could still have a contest with TF3 for domestic box office champ.

 

[Liam_H]

The $18 million on Friday is about the same as Transformers 3 first Monday. HP is currently about $7 million ahead of TF3. It definitely will not beat the Dark Knight's total domestic box office thought it will crush it in the foreign BO.

Depending on how HP holds up these next few days we could still have a contest with TF3 for domestic box office champ.

That's kind of unfair to compare since TF3 was out an extra two days compared to Potter. Also its monday fell on a 4th of July.

 

[DACrowe]

Even if Potter keeps #1 (which I think it can), both Captain America and Friends with Benefits will cut into it. Though both may seem tired (superhero origin film and romantic comedy about **** buddies starring a Black Swan star) to some, I expect both to rake in a decent chunk of change for their genres--though probably less than average due to HP's presence. I think this will slow HP8 down from the 7-day total and conversely slow the two openers down from their full potential.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

You were doing so good until you brought romantic comedies, which has nothing to do with blockbuster potential.

t:

That was to illustrate how far up the chain SH movies are. Rom-coms only wish "the public is tired of them" like SH movies.

Not saying the public won't tire of SH movies....but it sure isn't happening now. GL is proof of that.

 

[Hush]

Harry could lose the weekend if you ask me. It had a pretty steep drop Friday to Saturday and we may not get all the repeaters. Just throwing it out there.

 

[Liam_H]

Harry could lose the weekend if you ask me. It had a pretty steep drop Friday to Saturday and we may not get all the repeaters. Just throwing it out there.

Well, I believe its weekend multiplier was in line with Part 1 if you take out the midnight showings. So that steep drop is just inflated.

 

[Figs]

Harry could lose the weekend if you ask me. It had a pretty steep drop Friday to Saturday and we may not get all the repeaters. Just throwing it out there.

That's very possible of course, but as much as I look forward to Captain America, I don't see it being #1 it's opening weekend. HP is a beast right now.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

We probably are spoiled by Spider-Man, TDK, and the Iron Man movies. We are now thinking they all have to be "blockbusters".

How many SH movies are really blockbusters? We've had exactly 6 break $300 million domestic:
TDK
Spider-Man 1, 2, and 3
Iron Man and Iron Man 2

That's it. Even Batman and Superman couldn't break $300 million in '05 and '06 respectively.

I do know this....we just had a Green Lantern movie that had bad advance buzz, horrible reviews, terrible word of mouth, during a box office slump....and it opened with $53 million and broke $100 million at the box office. How does that happen if the public is tired of comic book movies?

Now check out the list of romantic comedies. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=romanticcomedy.htm

Exactly zero $300 million movies. Only one that broke $200 million. The public not only must be "tired of rom-coms"...they never liked them to begin with using the standards we set for SH movies!

GL broke a 100mil because of 3D ticket prices.

I'm looking forward to Captain America but I really do wish that hollywood would cool it with the Superhero flicks.

 

[jmc]

We really do need a break from superheroes, I was only thinking this today that if you'd asked me 5 years ago that we'd be getting all these new character on screen I would have said fantastic. A case of be careful for what you wish for because this onslaught has shown me that I really don't need to see or even want to see every famous comic character come to life. Funny how things change.

 

[TLH]

This movie is going to make more than 47 million today, Saturday. Don't know about Sunday until I see today's numbers.

Toldja TDK's Saturday record was comfortably safe.

Also if the Tuesday 15.5m estimate holds, DH2 will also miss out on TDK's 5-day record.

 

[BestGirl]

GL broke a 100mil because of 3D ticket prices.

I'm looking forward to Captain America but I really do wish that hollywood would cool it with the Superhero flicks.

Or at least stagger them so there aren't four released in a single summer. Talk about overkill.

 

[chaseter]

Toldja TDK's Saturday record was comfortably safe.

Also if the Tuesday 15.5m estimate holds, DH2 will also miss out on TDK's 5-day record.

You were right. I can't believe it had that big of a drop to Saturday. I thought it would be about a 40 something percent drop based on the other movies. Batman and Harry will be close buddies for a long time.

 

[The Morningstar]

I don't think there is superhero fatigue. I don't think they should stop making superhero movies.

Just stop making utter ****e like Green Lantern, please.

 

[dark_b]

i would love some original superhero movies.

 

[Figs]

I don't think there is superhero fatigue. I don't think they should stop making superhero movies.

Just stop making utter ****e like Green Lantern, please.

Exactly. I don't get the complaints people have of wanting them to stop making superhero films. If you're burnt out on them...just don't watch them. It's not like these superhero films are preventing other studios from making non superhero summer blockbusters either.

After Captain America, just about all of Marvel's other characters that haven't had a movie are C listers or worse. Aside from a few like Dr. Strange, I do think they should take a break in regards to trying to use lower tiered characters in the near future. I'm not necessarily tired of them, but it is a tad ridiculous how many they are trying to pump out in a single year.

In regards to Harry Potter. Does anyone think it's going to drop huge this weekend?