Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Kind of surprise you think Cowboys and Aliens will open that big since it seems the GA thinks its looks silly. Good chance they'll see Captain America instead since its getting good word of mouth.

44mil is not a great opening for the type of film Cowboys and Aliens is. Remember though these are my early predictions I most surely will be changing them. As for Cap, thats not an awful drop for it and would be par for the course for the type of film it is. A comicbook movie I mean. Ofcourse I hope that it does better than that and I might give it better numbers depending upon it's weekday performance.

 

[Liam_H]

44mil is not a great opening for the type of film Cowboys and Aliens is. Remember though these are my early predictions I most surely will be changing them. As for Cap, thats not an awful drop for it and would be par for the course for the type of film it is. A comicbook movie I mean. Ofcourse I hope that it does better than that and I might give it better numbers depending upon it's weekday performance.

Well I guess I meant 44 million opening for a movie to me that has not sold itself very well to the general audience. A lot of people say its gonna flop and I sadly kind of agree with them. The mediocre response from Comic-Con is such a blow since it needed critical praise to get past the initial impression people might have of it.

If it does do $44 million I think it would be a success cause its production is $100 million.

 

[Spideyfan93]

I really like Jon Favreau and he deserves the success if the film is good.

Unfortunately, I see results not being too great either. My friends who want to hang out Friday, mentioned the idea of seeing Captain America and they are aware of Cowboys & Aliens. Not that one person's idea conveys everyone's thoughts but it's worth noting in my opinion.

As I see it though, if this film fails financially but is a great movie...it could become a cult classic OR develop popularity through DVD sales and such. It happened with Scott Pilgrim, a movie that already has a cult status despite it not even being around for a year yet.

A price to pay but positives could come out of the movie some day.

 

[Liam_H]

I really like Jon Favreau and he deserves the success if the film is good.

Unfortunately, I see results not being too great either. My friends who want to hang out Friday, mentioned the idea of seeing Captain America and they are aware of Cowboys & Aliens. Not that one person's idea conveys everyone's thoughts but it's worth noting in my opinion.

As I see it though, if this film fails financially but is a great movie...it could become a cult classic OR develop popularity through DVD sales and such. It happened with Scott Pilgrim, a movie that already has a cult status despite it not even being around for a year yet.

A price to pay but positives could come out of the movie some day.

The greatest price to me is that if the movie doesn't do well financially, the studios will basically see it as another sign that they should stick to what is safe. They won't fund movies that might be a little out there cause its not profitable.

Let's just say it turns out to be an awesome movie, that's a great time but if it doesn't sell than it won't matter. One step forward but three steps back.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well I guess I meant 44 million opening for a movie to me that has not sold itself very well to the general audience. A lot of people say its gonna flop and I sadly kind of agree with them. The mediocre response from Comic-Con is such a blow since it needed critical praise to get past the initial impression people might have of it.

If it does do $44 million I think it would be a success cause its production is $100 million.

Studios always lie about the budget so I assume that 100mil means 150mil.

If Cowboys and Aliens fails it won't be the audiences fault. The advertising has been confusing, the movie is named something as silly as Cowboys and Aliens yet it looks deadly serious. Besides the problems with the name, they haven't really shown anything new or interesting looking since the first full trailer. It's not even clear to me besides the title what is going to be happening in the film, is it going to be a boring western until the aliens come or what?

I've just lost all interest, I'm going to see it anyway but I'm not expecting much. The marketing his just been botched, the closer the movie gets the more disinterested I become.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Going into this summer, I thought Cowboys & Aliens would play big...and I'll be the first to admit I'm probably going to be wrong on that one. Wouldn't be surprised if Cap and Potter stayed at #1 and #2.

Have a feeling we're looking a big-ole flop here.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Have you seen Cap yet? And if so what do you think? Well you already see that I dug the hell out of it.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I liked it. Had issues (including that ending) but overall it worked.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Not going to disagree about the issues because we all know what they were. The Avenger's ending felt tacked on and should have been a mid credits scene.

I liked it a hell of alot more than Thor though. Looking forward to hearing your Moviemoan review. It's always interesting to hear what others think of a film.

It played better for me the second time I watched it.

Anyways: Cowboys and Aliens is starting to look like another Super 8 style opening to me, minus the legs.

 

[Marvin]

Raimi's photography is his wost enemy, especially in the first. His films age horribly. Webb's (fincher light) film however, is very easy on the eyes. Personally I belive if cap looked more appealing it would have reached the same audience as Iron Man and maybe even Spidey. I think the pulpy vibe killed it. I just don't think that stuff sells as well in this day and age. Maybe if the Cap trailer was more like the avengers trailer it would have opened stronger.

Predictions
Cap will dip much further than Thors 48% this week, due to quality and competition.

Favreau is overrated and his film will open in the 30's despite it's appealing name. I honestly don't think Ford is the major draw Hall H would have us believe. Craig when he's not in bond(especially a good one)....I don't know.

C&A 37 (kinda like super 8)
Smurfs 36 (kinda like Chipmunks and hop)
Cap 29 (thor did 34)
Potter 17 (like the last one)

should be close.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Potter's not going to drop that much, it rarely does in it's 3rd weekend

Cap's going to have better weekdays so that drop would be par for the course for the type of film it is.

I doubt Smurfs is going to open that high

Opening with 100mil is a rare thing. The best looking Captain America movie in the world wouldn't have pulled in those kinds of numbers so thats a ridiculous statement

Cowboys and Aliens looks about right

And despite Thor's 48% drop it still didn't get a 3.0multiplier and was not nearly as well received as the fans pretend. It did well but it's numbers have been grossly overstated

We will see if Cap bites it after this weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if it did or didn't, I'm not going to predict based on emotions just the weekday numbers. It's definately headed for a 50+% drop, thats for sure.

Also is there anything I don't disagree with you about Marvin? lol

EDIT:

It's going to be funny when Spider-Man Begins isn't nearly as popular as the fanboy hated Raimi movies. Can't wait for the b**ching thats going to happen.

 

[Marvin]

Potter's not going to drop that much, it rarely does in it's 3rd weekend

3rd weekends in potter history
part7.1 - 17 mill coming off of 49 mill
part 6 - 17mill coming off of 29 mill
Part 5 - 17mill coming off of 32 mill
Part 4 - 19mill coming of of 54 mill
part 3 - 18mill coming off of 34mill
part 2 - 34mill coming off of 42mill
Part 1 - 23mill coming off of 57 mill

part two shot back up to the number one position in it's 3rd weekend, I'm not so sure that will happen with the most recent (most front loaded) installment.

So, I'd say it more than rarely happens.

I doubt Smurfs is going to open that high

I think it's got a good shot
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=cgcrittervs.htm

but it will more than likely do G-force business looking at the release date.
Opening with 100mil is a rare thing. The best looking Captain America movie in the world wouldn't have pulled in those kinds of numbers so thats a ridiculous statement

And despite Thor's 48% drop it still didn't get a 3.0multiplier and was not nearly as well received as the fans pretend. It did well but it's numbers have been grossly overstated

I'm not fan of that film but I recognize it's probably the most successful/impressive this year. A drop less than 50 is always good sign.

Also is there anything I don't disagree with you about Marvin? lol

female nerds are awesome?

EDIT:

It's going to be funny when Spider-Man Begins isn't nearly as popular as the fanboy hated Raimi movies. Can't wait for the b**ching thats going to happen.

meh, same thing happened with batman, par for the course if you will.

Opening with 100mil is a rare thing. The best looking Captain America movie in the world wouldn't have pulled in those kinds of numbers so thats a ridiculous statement

If the "lesser known" Iron can do it, I don't see why Cap can't.

I maybe bias, but I'm sure an adaptation of Millars cap(as much as real fans hate it) would stroll past 100 million in 3 days.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I know it is but alot of fanboys (not you) are under this strange impression that normal people are going to forget that a Spider-Man origin story came out in 2002 and make The Not So Amazing looking Spider-Man* a mega hit like the first three.

So we agree that female nerds are awesome. t:

*I got that from Chris Wallaces awesome sig.

I'm not agruing that Thor's 48% drop wasn't good but that still only lead to decent but not as good as legs as that kind of drop usually leads to. X-Men had a 57% drop and it still had better legs than Thor. Thats why I say that Cap has summer weekday advantages that Thor didn't have provided people don't hate it. It's not the end of the world to drop 50+% as long as you don't keep doing that.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I think BB and arguably IM1 did the origin formula better than SM1, but Spidey was a pretty great rendition of how Peter became Spidey (so great, it makes me question still the logic of remaking that storyline so soon) and balanced the villain and second and third act drama well enough that it was a good movie with some great moments. Captain America felt very uneven to me. The first two acts flow very well and Stanley Tucci gives a superb performance in the early parts of the movie. But, as I've said, the movie just kind of undercooks the plot in the third act and rushes into one action set piece after another. Instead of a cheesy montage of Cap knocking over factories and Red Skull sceaming/killing nameless henchmen, they should have just made it one big action sequence. Instead, the movie lost all momentum and the death of Bucky felt rushed and out of left field instead of something dramatically earned (which Cap and Haley Atwell's radio chat was). I also felt Red Skull's "death" was rushed and lacked real tension

My opinion of course, but the movie had a lot of narrative problems and while supremely entertaining, has little that will cause it to stick out in the memory for years to come unless one simply loves the Captain America character and his being in a movie.




I think it's because despite not getting exact character traits right (particularly in Spidey's wisecracking and MJ's....everything) the film does capture the magic, joy and sweetness of Stan Lee's early stories with Ditko and Romita. It just has that simple, but grand appeal.

Eh, his wisecracking isn't one of the reasons why I love Spider-Man. It's a nice trait to have, but overall it's not the most important trait. People act like it's sacriligious if he doesn't wisecrack as much as he does in the comics (which can be overdone to death on film) Yet people seem to forgive Nolan for not making Batman use his detective skills as much as his crimefighting skills.

 

[chaseter]

I liked it. Had issues (including that ending) but overall it worked.

I am glad other people thought the ending sucked. I posted that it sucked and how I thought it could be way better and they ate me alive in the Cap forum.

 

[Marvin]

Eh, his wisecracking isn't one of the reasons why I love Spider-Man. It's a nice trait to have, but overall it's not the most important trait. People act like it's sacriligious if he doesn't wisecrack as much as he does in the comics (which can be overdone to death on film) Yet people seem to forgive Nolan for not making Batman use his detective skills as much as his crimefighting skills.

Which I'll never understand. I think Guy Richie would have been cruxified if he made Sherlock even half as smart as he is in his film. It actually pisses me off.

His wise cracking when done well would be awesome, and when he stops it would be a good indicator of how dire the situation is.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I never cared about him not making wisecracks either. I honestly didn't. I'm not against him making wisecracks but it wasn't something that I paid too much attention to. Listen the Spider-Man movies do have problems (the 3rd one was awful) but overall I'd still take them over most other comicbook films.

People never complain about any of the changes Nolan made (or that terrible 3rd act in BB) because his Batman movies was dark and unfun and thats what all comicbook movies should be. Look at the new Spider-Man trailer, I'd like to see how many good quips they are going to fit into that dark and mysterous Spider-Man. Nolan's Bat-flicks are entertaining and I loved TDK but it's a depressing film that I can't watch too often. Not impressed with Bale's performances either. Batman could have vanished from TDK and I wouldn't have noticed or cared. Thats sorta fine because Nolan's batman films are more story driven than anything else but it's still not entirely accpetable. And I just went on another rant.

 

[Doctor Jones]

In the CC footage, he does wisecrack, and they're pretty good ones. But they're in front of dumb carjackers, something where Spidey has room to make jokes because the situation isn't dire. But Spidey did wisecrack in the previous films, despite not being up to the amount fans wanted, which is ridiculous. It's like that's how people define his character. People always describe him as a wise ass. He can be one of those things, but that's not the main thing why people love him. Raimi captured everything that we love about Peter, and because we cared about Peter we cared about Spider-Man and the action.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Which I'll never understand. I think Guy Richie would have been cruxified if he made Sherlock even half as smart as he is in his film. It actually pisses me off.

His wise cracking when done well would be awesome, and when he stops it would be a good indicator of how dire the situation is.

And there is a lot of the situations in the films where they are dire. I ask people where he could wisecrack that would fit within the rhythm and beats of the scene or situation, but I haven't heard a good answer. People think you can just stick wisecracks in anywhere. But that's not the case.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Potter's not going to drop that much, it rarely does in it's 3rd weekend

It's on course to break $300 million this weekend and should top Transformers in a few weeks.

It's going to be funny when Spider-Man Begins isn't nearly as popular as the fanboy hated Raimi movies. Can't wait for the b**ching thats going to happen.

Funny thing is they're going for a 6-day opening (including July 4th which is on Wednesday). They want to grab as much money as they can before The Dark Knight Rises hits.

 

[Doctor Jones]

The film has to be good if they want to make enough before TDKR comes in to destroy everything in its path. The origin again doesn't help things.

My main fear for this film is to not be thinking, "I already saw this ten years ago" when I watch it in theaters. If they pull this origin off, hoepfully I won't be thinking about it. That will be difficult. Webb really has to come through with this.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Funny thing is they're going for a 6-day opening (including July 4th which is on Wednesday). They want to grab as much money as they can before The Dark Knight Rises hits.

Spider-Man is a very popular character so I'm sure it will make some change but do they actually believe that it's going to compete with Spider-Man 2's 180mil 6 day? I guess they don't but this is a reboot and reboot after only 10 years since the first and 5 years after the last film will never do as well as the original.

Batman Begins didn't didn't sale anywhere near as many tickets as Batman 89 and didn't even beat it out in dollars, luckly the second movie came along and exploded. I guess thats what Sony is hoping for. Good luck because thats not a easy thing to do. And with Rises on it's heels, yeah it's going to be an interesting time.

 

[Marvin]

I know it is but alot of fanboys (not you) are under this strange impression that normal people are going to forget that a Spider-Man origin story came out in 2002 and make The Not So Amazing looking Spider-Man* a mega hit like the first three.

I think in this day and age, spidey doesn't stand out the way he used to so it will take a certain change to make him special/relevant again. I do think the wave of discussion and attention garnered by his reappearance is huge sign. come that july weekend anyone with idle time won't be missing out on the chance to partake....unlike say Cap.

So we agree that female nerds are awesome. t:

they're amazing.

*I got that from Chris Wallaces awesome sig.

what exactly?

I'm not agruing that Thor's 48% drop wasn't good but that still only lead to decent but not as good as legs as that kind of drop usually leads to. X-Men had a 57% drop and it still had better legs than Thor. Thats why I say that Cap has summer weekday advantages that Thor didn't have provided people don't hate it. It's not the end of the world to drop 50+% as long as you don't keep doing that.

I wonder how well Xmen would have done had it been in 3D and had thors release date, whilst thor was in 2D and in june.

on a personal note.
I see how the GA might be impressed with what Marvel is putting out(in both Cap and Thor, but as a reader I just feel go "got damn" underwhelmed, not even whelmed. I just want the studios to start reaching for spectacular in their films. Like they did when they decided to make the first blade.

I enjoy the nolan films, but I miss batman.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Spider-Man is a very popular character so I'm sure it will make some change but do they actually believe that it's going to compete with Spider-Man 2's 180mil 6 day? I guess they don't but this is a reboot and reboot after only 10 years since the first and 5 years after the last film will never do as well as the original.

Way, way too early to call it. But...I could see its total grosses for the 6-day being under $100 million, even with the 3D bump. This reboot has a lot of obstacles to overcome and the general public's first impression was that teaser...and you could hear a fart in the wind it was so quiet when it played in front of Captain America. They're off to a terrible start winning people over.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think in this day and age, spidey doesn't stand out the way he used to so it will take a certain change to make him special/relevant again. I do think the wave of discussion and attention garnered by his reappearance is huge sign. come that july weekend anyone with idle time won't be missing out on the chance to partake....unlike say Cap.

And by special/relevant you mean copying Nolan's Batman? Sorry but I don't see Spider-Man pulling 800mil out of his webbing this time.

they're amazing.

Ofcourse.

what exactly?

He's a fellow Raimi Spider-Man fan.

I wonder how well Xmen would have done had it been in 3D and had thors release date, whilst thor was in 2D and in june.

I think that it still would have underperformed.

on a personal note.
I see how the GA might be impressed with what Marvel is putting out(in both Cap and Thor, but as a reader I just feel go "got damn" underwhelmed, not even whelmed. I just want the studios to start reaching for spectacular in their films. Like they did when they decided to make the first blade.

This Marvel company is making product. I'm not going to argue with that. Ofcourse these films would be better if they weren't complete product and build up to The Avengers. I've been complaining about these new Marvel films more than anyone. I liked Iron Man and Cap but thats it. Iron Man 2 was terrible, Thor was too mediocre, small and too silly for words and TIH was forgettable.[/QUOTE]

I enjoy the nolan films, but I miss batman.

I loved TDK and I too miss Batman. I'm in the minority who thinks that Bale is a great actor but an uncompelling Batman/Bruce Wayne.

Way, way too early to call it. But...I could see its total grosses for the 6-day being under $100 million, even with the 3D bump. This reboot has a lot of obstacles to overcome and the general public's first impression was that teaser...and you could hear a fart in the wind it was so quiet when it played in front of Captain America. They're off to a terrible start winning people over.

You can still call it just make sure to change your prediction when the movie is close to coming out. lol

I don't get the impression that the teaser was a big success. The movie's lone money shot is some bad CGI first person view. It was cool but it would be cooler if it didn't like s**t. They better come out with something more compelling than that.