Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Marvin]

Spielberg mostly makes films "for children," at least pre-Schindler's List. So did Zemeckis in his prime. In the last decade I'll throw out Peter Jackson, Sam Raimi, Alfonso Cuaron (at least once), Brad Bird, Matthew Vaughn, JJ Abrams and John Lasseter, as well.

Making movies for children (or all ages, if you want to be more precise) does not excuse crap.

He(and others) doesn't make movies for children, he makes movies for a certain audience. It doesn't keep Todd Phillips from getting any sleep either. The problem is when people go out of their way to categorize the product as something it clearly isn't. Flawed as it may be.

The Hangover(2) isn't Return to Paradise. A bunch of reviews explaining why it would be stronger for being so doesn't stop it from being a success.

 

[rashad]

WKND BO: #Smurfs $36.2M, #Cowboys $36.2M, Captain $24.9M/$116.8M, Potter $21.9M/$318.5M, CrazyStupidLove $19.3M.
http://***********/#!/giteshpandya/status/97694141621874688

 

[The Morningstar]

^ I agree with that, I hear all this talk about other second and even third tier character movies being planned and my reaction is like 'Who's gonna watch that?'. If this year has proven one thing is that you can't make a living off second tier characters, Thor, Cap, X-men, they all did ok business, (GL crashed and burned of course) but the box office was not enough to guarantee a solid income, factor in 3D inflation and it's even less impressive. The only option is to reduce the production costs because as of now money is being spent on these characters as if they are house hold names.

Has it? Thor is probably the least known out of all them and is the most financially successful.

 

[rogue trooper]

Has it? Thor is probably the least known out of all them and is the most financially successful.

...and let's not forget Iron Man. "Blade" was a third-tier Marvel character and was a financial success.

 

[MadVillainy]

I still dont really see a definite sign of superhero fatigue or at least i see the situation is more than just superhero fatigue.

I mean people are pointing out that none of the superhero movies did that well, but isnt movie attendance down from the last years anyway? Ive noticed among my friends (who would all be considered as members of the GA) that there hasnt been an urgency to see summer movies like there was in past years, and Im not just talking about the superhero movies. You can point out how First Class didnt do Iron Man numbers domestic or as well as the other X-Men movies, but then again Pirates 4 didnt do as much domestic as any of the other movies in the Pirates series.

And yeah none of the superhero movies crossed 200 domestic, but honestly not all of the top 10 highest grossing movies did. Fast Five, Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2, Rio, and not the mention Thor & First Class didnt cross 200 mill domestic, but are still pretty high grossers.

Idk, it could be there but I'm still not seeing any 100 % sure signs. Ive said before in earlier posts, I have yet to hear anyone other than a fanboy or someone who posts in forums complain about the number of superhero movies. Maybe it'll happen soon, I mean next year we have Avengers, Spider-man, TDKR, AND The Wolverine. Those are all big name heroes, it'll be interesting how it plays out

WKND BO: #Smurfs $36.2M, #Cowboys $36.2M, Captain $24.9M/$116.8M, Potter $21.9M/$318.5M, CrazyStupidLove $19.3M.
http://***********/#!/giteshpandya/status/97694141621874688

Interesting. I didnt think Smurfs would do that well

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Marvel is putting out too many movies. And their all the same movie tone wise. Cap and Iron Man, tone wise is the same thing. People want different things and its obvious. TDK changed the game and Marvel won't listen.

 

[MadVillainy]

How do you guys think Rise of the Planet of the Apes will do?

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Im hearing good things about it, I think it does better than C&A.

 

[rogue trooper]

Overseas, "Captain America" has made $53,500,000.

Worldwide total: $170,272,000

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=captainamerica.htm

 

[MadVillainy]

Im hearing good things about it, I think it does better than C&A.

Yeah I'm hearing good things too. But Im just not sure the audience will buy into the Apes taking over the world thing

 

[rogue trooper]

What I'm interested in seeing is how, on August 19, "Conan The Barbarian" will perform against "Spy Kids 4" and "Fright Night". All come out the same day.

I wouldn't be surprised if Spy Kids, being a popular children's franchise, takes the #1 spot on the weekend, but as soon as that weekend ends, as kids will go back to school, I think Conan will gain momentum. Maybe.

 

[JP]

More like triple bomb. ^

 

[rogue trooper]

Marvel is putting out too many movies. And their all the same movie tone wise. Cap and Iron Man, tone wise is the same thing. People want different things and its obvious. TDK changed the game and Marvel won't listen.

Well, Thor, X-Men:FC, and Cap, all performed better than DC's Green Lantern(which I enjoyed, by the way).

 

[chaseter]

Marvel is putting out too many movies. And their all the same movie tone wise. Cap and Iron Man, tone wise is the same thing. People want different things and its obvious. TDK changed the game and Marvel won't listen.

People want different things but you are suggesting that Marvel make all their movies like TDK

TDK was a game changer, that doesn't mean I want all my superhero movies to be dark, gritty, realistic, and serious.

 

[Spideyfan93]

I've seriously had enough with TDK being brought in as the prime example for movies! Enough!

It's a great movie but people have said it a billion times! Movies don't have to be like the damn Dark Knight.

 

[dark_b]

fanboy 101.

''i saw batman on the set. its going to make 1 billion''

 

[rogue trooper]

More like triple bomb. ^

None of them strike your fancy, I see. Fair enough, but there does have to be a winner.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Im not saying make all their movies like the TDK. That never came out of my mouth. All im saying is that marvel has had all their directors on a leash and won't let them try to be different from the rest. All their movies have the same tone and they all feel the same. Im not saying become serious but become different. I mean theirs a reason all their movies except Iron Man haven't been a huge hit. People want different things and if all your B-List character movies are the same thing, then whats the point?

 

[Spideyfan93]

That's what it sounds like though man. What are you trying to say then?

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

TDK changed the game because CBM should strive to be better than good now. I feel as if all the marvel movies strive to be just good. Their safe movies. And also while their isn't truly anything wrong with safe movies, when your over saturating the market with those same type of movies and people want something different then well it becomes obvious why these marvel movies aren't doing as well. Strive to be better and maybe the return will be better.

 

[DACrowe]

^ I agree with that, I hear all this talk about other second and even third tier character movies being planned and my reaction is like 'Who's gonna watch that?'. If this year has proven one thing is that you can't make a living off second tier characters, Thor, Cap, X-men, they all did ok business, (GL crashed and burned of course) but the box office was not enough to guarantee a solid income, factor in 3D inflation and it's even less impressive. The only option is to reduce the production costs because as of now money is being spent on these characters as if they are house hold names.

Marvel already keeps the costs of their films relatively low. That also is why none have been particularly ambitious beyond being faithful and trying not to suck (though IM2 still did ).

Marvel's system should net at least two more summers of solid profits (Avengers and Iron Man 3....sequels to Avengers should also do well, I'm not so sure about Thor 2 or Captain America 2). But one day there will be so many Marvel Studios films that I imagine audiences will skip them more and more. Once they start making more along the lines of XFC or even GL, I have no idea where they can go.

Fox will likely make more Wolverine films, but I fear XFC2 will not happen--which is a shame. I also doubt we will see that Daredevil sequel at this point. On the bright side things are looking good for Fantastic Four to return to Marvel and a better adaptation would fit nicely into the Avengers movieverse.

 

[DACrowe]

People want different things but you are suggesting that Marvel make all their movies like TDK

TDK was a game changer, that doesn't mean I want all my superhero movies to be dark, gritty, realistic, and serious.

TDK is a game changer in that is shows you can make a superhero movie that doesn't play formula and thinks outside the box of the Raimi Spider-Man films. I actually think XFC was the second superhero movie to do this. YOu don't have to be dark like TDK, but differentiate yourself more from the competition and avoid the formula more.

A good article on this was in EW last week. I disagreed with some of the snobbery, but he pointed out TDK was great because it wasn't like all the other superhero movies. Marvel prefers to make their pitch right now about getting a certain tone and style with every film. But then none of them stand out.

 

[MadVillainy]

Im confused how do Marvel make their movies for cheap? Arent they usually estimated at around 150 mill?

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Captain America could have been done more cheaply. Maybe like 20M less.

 

[MadVillainy]

TDK changed the game because CBM should strive to be better than good now. I feel as if all the marvel movies strive to be just good. Their safe movies. And also while their isn't truly anything wrong with safe movies, when your over saturating the market with those same type of movies and people want something different then well it becomes obvious why these marvel movies aren't doing as well. Strive to be better and maybe the return will be better.

I wouldnt call Marvel's movies safe. Maybe tone wise someone could say that, but I think are Marvel's movies have made some ambitious choices. But really how many blockbusters can one call "not safe"? It's not just superhero movies

I will say however that I wouldnt mind a movie that has a different kind of superhero movie. That's why I really want a Wally West Flash movie.