Summer 2011 box office predictions

[KangConquers]

Personally, I think Cap will be the only SH film this year that's got a shot at challenging Thor's WW gross. I suspect XMFC & GL will hinder each other and if lucky gross in the $300M range WW(which will be more in XMFC's favor than GL's because of the difference in budgets). I don't expect Cap to match Thor's OS take, which is on track to beat even IM1's OS take. But I think Cap can make the difference up domestically and maybe then some. Everything I've seen of it so far looks utterly fantastic.

I really hope X-Men makes sequel money. It's a high quality film in a genre that too often gets it wrong.

Green Lantern will bomb here but do really well overseas. I expect a 35/65 breakdown for Domestic/ Overseas.

Captain America I'm still not sure about. I could see it doing Superman Returns money, which considering an approximate 175 million dollar budget post advertising vs. Superman Returns 268 million post advertising would be well in sequel range.

 

[kedrell]

I thought Cap was budgeted at $140M.

 

[kedrell]

Does everyone think that the 4 comic movies will make enough for sequels? That's all that really matters. Everything else is just dick measuring for the sake of bragging rights.

to make sequel money all three films have to break 350 worldwide.

I hope all will. Thor's a closed case. It's made it. It definitely will get a sequel.

Of the other 3? I'm most confident about Cap, then X-men, then GL. But I sincerely hope all make it. Thor & X-Men have passed the quality test. Here's to the others doing it as well.

 

[KangConquers]

I thought Cap was budgeted at $140M.

That's pre-marketing. 140 million is what it cost to make the film. Every big blockbuster gets an additional marketing budget in the range of 30-50 million dollars (some get 100 M +, but those are usually huge sequels to huge movies.) Movies not only have to make back their budget, but their marketing costs as well to hit profit.

So to pay for the movie, Cap will have to gross about 250 million dollars. To pay for the marketing budget it'll have to make an extra 50 to 80 million (depending on how big of a marketing campaign they give it.)

The old rule was that a studio had to gross about 2.5 times the film budget to recover all costs. That rule has since been softened a bit by tax cuts, higher percentage of opening weekend gross etc. But if we wanted to go by that formula, Cap would need to break 350 million worldwide for us to see Cap 2. Green Lantern would need to break 400 million, and X-Men first Class would need to break about 330 million.

The truth for each film is probably 85-90% of that number, but if we want to use the old hollywood standards from back when opening weekend only accounted for a quarter of total gross as opposed to 35-40%, then those figures would be accurate.

 

[kedrell]

I've never heard this 2.5X of the budget rule to break even. Virtually no big films would break even if that was true. I've heard that you can either do 2.0X of the production budget or 1.55X of the production budget+advertising budget to be in the black.

These days we usually just go by production budget(that's what you see for films over on BOM) since advertising is much more up in the air and they don't give solid figures for it with each film. Some film's ad budgets are differently effected by tie-ins and what not and it becomes a real mess trying to figure out a film's profitability that way.

I prefer the 2.0X of the production budget approach for that reason. It's only approximating true but on the whole I think it works as well as any other model. So Cap with a $140M production budget would be in the black after WW sales passed $280M. Being in the black is essential to getting a sequel, but even just getting to the black may not be enough incentive.

I'd say at least a $50M profit beyond that from WW theatrical sounds about right as the point where the studio feels a film has earned enough profit that a sequel is worth the effort. Of course there are always other factors like if it happenes to be unusually successful on DVD that could be used to justify a sequel as well.

XMFC needs $270M WW + $50M($320M) for Fox to give vaughn another go at it(unless DVD changes the need for that figure).

Thor was sequel worthy $70M ago.

GL probably needs $350M WW to get a sequel.

Cap needs $330M WW.

The reason a movie like TIH didn't get a sequel was because it needed $300M WW just to break even and $350M to be sequel worthy, yet it only made $264M WW. Sure, once you factor in DVD and such, TIH ended up actually earning the studio a few million $ in profit but it didn't inspire any confidence for a sequel.

 

[KangConquers]

I've never heard this 2.5X of the budget rule to break even. Virtually no big films would break even if that was true. I've heard that you can either do 2.0X of the production budget or 1.55X of the production budget+advertising budget to be in the black.

These days we usually just go by production budget(that's what you see for films over on BOM) since advertising is much more up in the air and they don't give solid figures for it with each film. Some film's ad budgets are differently effected by tie-ins and what not and it becomes a real mess trying to figure out a film's profitability that way.

I prefer the 2.0X of the production budget approach for that reason. It's only approximating true but on the whole I think it works as well as any other model. So Cap with a $140M production budget would be in the black after WW sales passed $280M. Being in the black is essential to getting a sequel, but even just getting to the black may not be enough incentive.

I'd say at least a $50M profit beyond that from WW theatrical sounds about right as the point where the studio feels a film has earned enough profit that a sequel is worth the effort. Of course there are always other factors like if it happenes to be unusually successful on DVD that could be used to justify a sequel as well.

XMFC needs $270M WW + $50M($320M) for Fox to give vaughn another go at it(unless DVD changes the need for that figure).

Thor was sequel worthy $70M ago.

GL probably needs $350M WW to get a sequel.

Cap needs $330M WW.

The reason a movie like TIH didn't get a sequel was because it needed $300M WW just to break even and $350M to be sequel worthy, yet it only made $264M WW. Sure, once you factor in DVD and such, TIH ended up actually earning the studio a few million $ in profit but it didn't inspire any confidence for a sequel.

I highly doubt we'll see a sequel for Cap if it doesn't break 300 million. I'd say 350 is a very safe/ comfortable figure for a Cap sequel. The further it winds up from that mark, the less likely it is to see a sequel.

Granted, there are always movies like GI Joe, which made 302 million on a 175 million dollar budget. That movie, theoretically needed to make 400 million to be safe, but is getting a sequel off of numbers that shouldn't have even put it in the black.

 

[dark_b]

fans think way to fast about sequels when the first movei is not even out.

when talking about how much a movie needs to make we also need to thik about paychecks. if they make a sequel every actors wants a bigger paccheck. and if understand correct the paychecks are inside the budget correct? GI joe ?

 

[Yodaman]

Granted, there are always movies like GI Joe, which made 302 million on a 175 million dollar budget. That movie, theoretically needed to make 400 million to be safe, but is getting a sequel off of numbers that shouldn't have even put it in the black.

The fact that the toyline was a huge seller probably influenced the greenlighting of that sequel more than the actual box office intake did.

 

[:eek:]

Early weekend estiimates for X-Men: $55 million

 

[lime]

Usually if one movie has 150 mil budget, it must make twice it's money (aka 300 ww) to be in clean profit.

 

[Doctor Jones]

That's around what I predicted. I do hope WOM can help it though.

I don't think Super 8 will do all that much and Jesus, I'm even more conflicted on GL now. There's apart of me saying it could be a hit or just underperform.

 

[kedrell]

The fact that the toyline was a huge seller probably influenced the greenlighting of that sequel more than the actual box office intake did.

This. GI Joe is different than a comic book/superhero film.

 

[kedrell]

And GI Joe cost $175M?

Talk about going over budget. That's what sequel's to successful 1st films usually get, not the 1st films themselves.

 

[kedrell]

fans think way to fast about sequels when the first movei is not even out.

when talking about how much a movie needs to make we also need to thik about paychecks. if they make a sequel every actors wants a bigger paccheck. and if understand correct the paychecks are inside the budget correct? GI joe ?

If the studios are smart, they would make a pay bump conditional upon how well the previous film did. I doubt the guys from Thor are going to get the same kind of pay bump as the guys from Iron Man got, because while both were successful, one was far more so.

 

[KangConquers]

If the studios are smart, they would make a pay bump conditional upon how well the previous film did. I doubt the guys from Thor are going to get the same kind of pay bump as the guys from Iron Man got, because while both were successful, one was far more so.

Very true...Hemsworth and Hiddleston will probably get low 7 figures compared to Downey's 10-12 million for Iron Man 2.

 

[lime]

That's around what I predicted. I do hope WOM can help it though.

I don't think Super 8 will do all that much and Jesus, I'm even more conflicted on GL now. There's apart of me saying it could be a hit or just underperform.

Super 8 will make great money for it's budget. The movie coast only 30 mil to make, and when it reaches 100 mil WW it will have twice it's budget. The movie will be succes even with 200 and 300 WW gross.

Lantern on other hand will have to do at lest 300 WW to be even close to sequel.

 

[dark_b]

a can belive that district 9 was 30mil filming in Johannesburg on cheap land. but Super 8 30 mil filming in america ? and produced and directed with JJ and Spielberg?

 

[kedrell]

Spielberg is known for his ability to use his considerable clout in the industry to get deals on things like SFX that other guys wouldn't be able to do. How do you think TF1 got away with it's budget?

 

[kedrell]

Spielberg is also producing C&A, so expect it's budget to bely it's scope as well.

 

[dark_b]

Spielberg is known for his ability to use his considerable clout in the industry to get deals on things like SFX that other guys wouldn't be able to do. How do you think TF1 got away with it's budget?

Bay and Spielberg together. Bay makes big movies with smaller budgets because he is filming very fast. ddddddt:

still.....we are talking here about 30 millions. this is a very small number

 

[kedrell]

C&A is listed with a $100M budget.

 

[kedrell]

Bay and Spielberg together. Bay makes big movies with smaller budgets because he is filming very fast. ddddddt:

still.....we are talking here about 30 millions. this is a very small number

I suspect most of Super 8 will be SFX free. Probably trying to recreate the conditions that Jaws had(what you don't see is more effective than what you do see). And it also goes that what you don't see, also doesn't cost to SFX-up.

 

[dark_b]

I suspect most of Super 8 will be SFX free. Probably trying to recreate the conditions that Jaws had(what you don't see is more effective than what you do see). And it also goes that what you don't see, also doesn't cost to SFX-up.

i got info that lensflares alone cost 20 millions on Super 8. the price is 1 dollar for one lens flare.

 

[kedrell]

Hehehehe. Damn lens flares.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Super 8 will make great money for it's budget. The movie coast only 30 mil to make, and when it reaches 100 mil WW it will have twice it's budget. The movie will be succes even with 200 and 300 WW gross.

Lantern on other hand will have to do at lest 300 WW to be even close to sequel.

Oh yeah. I forgot about the budget for this. It was $30 million wasn't it? How much is this projected to make opening weekend? In the $20 million range? It should do well then.