It was definitely too early; hell they were only in camp for 5 minutes before he's already sashaying over to be with the othe girls.
He's the swing vote whether he wants to be or not. In Manono you have the "Pectoral 4", Matt, Mike, Jay and Bill; then there's the other 4 who they haven't shown much of in the way of strategizing (that we see anyways). In the middle is Colton.
He's really not. They edited it to make it seem like he is, but swing votes only work if they have the charm to pull off playing both sides against the middle. Colton doesn't have that. From the very beginning he was combative to his own tribe. Swing votes like that usually result in both sides ridding themselves of the headache. Beyond that, I don't think that the "Pectoral 4," are stupid enough to think that four votes constitutes a majority. Matt may be arrogant but he doesn't seem dumb and Mike, Jay and Bill all seem to have their heads on straight. My guess is that they will recruit either Leif or Troy (who seems to be the type that would want to pal around with the young guys). Also, I don't think that Jonas who seems to be fairly smart would be okay with throwing the strongest player in the tribe under the bus so early in the game. I could see Colton being cocky enough to think he is a swing vote, not use the idol and go out 8-1. If he does feel threatened and plays the idol at an early tribal council, I could see him being the next one.
Anyway, my thoughts on the first episode:
It seems like a solid cast. The stand outs, IMO were Michael, Christina, Sabrina and Jonas. Jonas and Sabrina's negotiation over fire was a smart move. Jonas got his tribe something out of the deal and Christina got her tribe fire. I don't understand why Alicia was so angry. Although, if I were Jonas I would've held out. This isn't a game of charity. Let them be as uncomfortable for as long as possible.
Michael was smart in stealing the women's gear. Especially when you consider that no one in the women's tribe seems to realize it was him that did it. But even if they did, he gained some brownie points with his tribe and by the time the women can give him consequences, it will have blown over and there will be other types of drama to hide behind. It was a win-win. I could see him going far and maybe winning the game. Following the first episode, I'd say he's the favorite, just based on the feel that I got from this cast.
Sabrina giving Colton the idol was a smart move. He is the most likely to use it early and that could actually do some damage to the Manono tribe. Plus, she now owns Colton. All she has to do is drop that he has the idol and they will just flush it then oust him. So she controls him until at least the merge or a tribe shuffle.
The worst players in each tribe seem to be Colton and Alicia.
Alicia is too loud and too abrasive to really dominate the game. That being said, that could make her the perfect Philip Shepard for the season, the person you drag along to take heat off of yourself. It is for that reason that loud and dumb players tend to go further in the game than quiet and smart players. Look at Naonka. I don't get her grudge against Christina, but Christina doesn't exactly seem like the type to lay down and take it. She won't throw in the towel. So it could create some interesting conflict.
Colton seems to be every reality TV show's gay stereotype rolled into one. It makes his personality unbearable. Plus he is playing a stupid game. He wants to be the swing vote? Like I said, to be the swing vote you have to be charming and liked. All of the guys, even those out of the Pectoral 4 seem to dislike him. And who can blame them? From the second they got to camp he started kissing the ass of the other tribe! And next week it seems like he lets the safety of the idol go to his head and even Sabrina turns on him. Unless he finds more idols than Russell Hantz, I don't see him lasting long (thankfully).
Closing thoughts: The men made two very smart moves. First, not continuing the challenge. This female tribe would not hold up their end of the bargain with the chickens, so no matter how many crocodile tears they give, the men should give them NOTHING. The second smart move, making Colton be the face of the decision and announce it. I don't know if this was intentional or not, but it alienated him from the other tribe he tried so hard to kiss the collective asses of. It was smart.
I am a bit disappointed that no one was voted off. When there is an injury, I prefer a vote out. Kudos to Probst though for not letting them off the hook entirely and creating some good drama at TC before announcing that they were all safe.