Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

[I SEE SPIDEY]

i think T2 was a summer blockbuster.

Yeah but it wasn't just "another" summer blockbuster. Like Van Helsing was, like The Mummy movies were, like Transformers was, like countless other movies are.

 

[baerrtt]

Yeah but it wasn't just "another" summer blockbuster. Like Van Helsing was, like The Mummy movies were, like Transformers was, like countless other movies are.

The problem with subsequent Terminator entries is that they've continually ended up in the hands of directors (McG, Mostow etc) who are unable to craft convincing characters alongside the 'big' action scenes. Whatever Cameron's faults as a scriptwriter he's a very good storyteller and nobody else hired (and this goes for the tv series as well) to carry on the story seems able to create people we, the audience, can engage with.

 

[Timstuff]

Whatever Cameron's faults as a scriptwriter he's a very good storyteller and nobody else hired (and this goes for the tv series as well) to carry on the story seems able to create people we, the audience, can engage with.

Careful, them be fightin' words... There were 4 million us who would staunchly disagree with your rather misguided statement about TSCC. The only reason TSCC was canceled was because it was deeper than what today's reality TV consuming morons were willing to keep up with. Serialized TV is very hard to turn into a commercial success, and being serialized was part of why TSCC was so brilliant.

 

[Celestial]

Any predictions of the overseas box office for this weekend? It's now been released nearly everywhere but Japan and Mexico.

I'll take a stab at $50m for a total to date of $80m. T3 had a staggered release and its biggest weekend was around $40m but that was on top of the $100m it had already earned.

 

[Cain]

Yeah but it wasn't just "another" summer blockbuster. Like Van Helsing was, like The Mummy movies were, like Transformers was, like countless other movies are.

Yeah but it was another summer blockbuster like Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, BATMAN, Jurassic Park, Back to the Future Pt. 2, Who Framed Roger Rabbit? and countless others. I feel bad for today's generation when I was a kid summer movies actually were quite an event they meant something and were emotioanlly involving for all ages. Now a days they get some of the most soulless cinema ever presented it's disgusting. I hate to be that old coot in the corner but it is kinda sad. TDK, Pirates 1, Harry Potter 3, Spidey 1 and Iron Man are the only summer blockbusters this decade that caught the essence of summer blockbuster's past.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

Dammit! I wanted The Hangover to win this weekend, I thought it was very funny.

Stupid Up!



Sorry to go off topic, continue with the bashing of TS.

 

[Cain]

This will probably top out at $130 - $135 million. What were the production and marketing budgets? and what percentage of that gross are movie theatre chains going to run with?

 

[Etienne]

Dammit! I wanted The Hangover to win this weekend, I thought it was very funny.

Stupid Up!

I wouldn't worry about it. The Hangover made a very solid amount at 43 mil (just short of Up's 44 mil) Land of the Lost on the other hand had a disappointing opening with 19 mil. I figured as much.

 

[Eric Brooks]

Land of the Lost on the other hand had a disappointing opening with 19 mil. I figured as much.

yea, Land of the Lost looks like crapola

which is why I expected it to do good

I was wrong t:

good

 

[Crook]

Careful, them be fightin' words... There were 4 million us who would staunchly disagree with your rather misguided statement about TSCC. The only reason TSCC was canceled was because it was deeper than what today's reality TV consuming morons were willing to keep up with. Serialized TV is very hard to turn into a commercial success, and being serialized was part of why TSCC was so brilliant.

No, it was canceled due to lackluster ratings resulting from a non-engaging, up-and-down season. The low production values didn't help. As for "deep" storytelling, I would highly contend that. I stuck around for every episode, and it was hardly deep(er) in comparison to other mainstream shows who've had far higher ratings. Hell, its Friday partner, Dollhouse, arguably had more depth in their material.

 

[Celestial]

Very strong overseas numbers:

Terminator Salvation" showed plenty of power outside the United States, dominating the weekend's foreign box office with $67.5 million at 8,325 playdates in 70 territories.

"T4," handled by Sony in nearly all international markets, hunted down the third biggest weekend take of 2009, trailing only the launch frames for "Angels and Demons" and "X-Men Origins: Wolverine."

...

Sony had opted to hold off in the international launch for "Terminator Salvation" until two weeks after the U.S. opening, partly to avoid competing against "Angels and Demons."

"Terminator Salvation" finished first in 66 territories led by the U.K. with $11.6 million, Russia with $8 million in the 10th biggest opening ever for a Hollywood film, France with $6.3 million, Germany with $6 million, Australia with $5.2 million and Spain with $4.9 million. International "T4" cume has hit $97.2 million -- only $8 million short of the domestic total so far -- with another $4.4 million from paid previews in Japan that will be counted in next weekend's total.

Sony noted that the "T4" is running 21% ahead of "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines" for the same territories at the same point in their release. "Terminator 3" went on to finish its foreign run with $283 million, or nearly double its $150 million domestic cume.

Variety.

 

[Etienne]

yea, Land of the Lost looks like crapola

which is why I expected it to do good

I was wrong t:

good

Will Ferrell should take some time off, seriously. With the 15 million OW of Semi-Pro and now the disappointing OW for Land of the Lost it's looking like some people are growing tired of his same old shtick.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Very strong overseas numbers:

Variety.

Those numbers are great and I expected them. Sony should make some money but the WB is screwed.

I think that it will drop hard in the weeks to come but I still see about 300mil.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Very strong overseas numbers:

Variety.

Seems I was right about it doing well in the UK, expect to gain a strong BO in the UK as the franchise as a whole has always been popular over here. Australia might end up with a good take as well because many english live over there.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

My Movie Moan co-host Phil said his audience was half-full this past weekend for Terminator: Salvation...and ironically it was also half-full for Star Trek which he saw again this weekend - which has been out for a couple of weeks now in the UK.

As for its international numbers, it was going to open strong. That's not a surprise. However, this whole "OMG! It opened higher than the last film!" argument doesn't mean much. Quantum of Solace opened bigger than Casino Royale...and it still didn't out-gross it overseas and/or worldwide. The foreign box-office isn't going to save Salvation like it did for Rise of the Machines.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

My Movie Moan co-host Phil said his audience was half-full this past weekend for Terminator: Salvation...and ironically it was also half-full for Star Trek which he saw again this weekend - which has been out for a couple of weeks now in the UK.

As for its international numbers, it was going to open strong. That's not a surprise. However, this whole "OMG! It opened higher than the last film!" argument doesn't mean much. Quantum of Solace opened bigger than Casino Royale...and it still didn't out-gross it overseas and/or worldwide. The foreign box-office isn't going to save Salvation like it did for Rise of the Machines.

Star trek has done very well over here, but I can see TS doing the same, I think it will earn more internationally than it will domestic and being 21% ahead of T3 at the moment may mean something. We will see I suppose, I doubt an international take akin to T3 will mean a sequel will happen though.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My Movie Moan co-host Phil said his audience was half-full this past weekend for Terminator: Salvation...and ironically it was also half-full for Star Trek which he saw again this weekend - which has been out for a couple of weeks now in the UK.

As for its international numbers, it was going to open strong. That's not a surprise. However, this whole "OMG! It opened higher than the last film!" argument doesn't mean much. Quantum of Solace opened bigger than Casino Royale...and it still didn't out-gross it overseas and/or worldwide. The foreign box-office isn't going to save Salvation like it did for Rise of the Machines.

Jamie thats a great point about Quatum of Solace and Casino Royale.

426.9mil to 407.6mil. I could totally see that happening with Salvation. Well we have to wait and see.

I have a hard time commenting on the international numbers because I don't follow them as closely.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

Sony rules overseas as Terminator Salvation surges towards $100m

Sony enjoyed a mighty weekend as Terminator Salvation ruled the waves with an estimated $67.5m haul and Angels & Demons became the first release of 2009 to cross $400m worldwide.

Active on 8,325 screens outside North America, Terminator Salvation finished the weekend as the number one film in 66 of its 70 territories, led by $11.6m from 900 screens in the UK and $8m from 786 in Russia for the 10th biggest launch of a Hollywood film.
The international running total stands at $97.2m, although the action sci-fi has actually reached $101.6m factoring in $4.4m in previews in Japan, which Sony Pictures Releasing International will report next weekend after the film officially launches in the territory.
Terminator Salvation is currently running 21% ahead of Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines, which by this point had taken $80.3m from the same territories.

• Other notable debuts this weekend included $6.3m from 752 in France, $6m from 981 in Germany, $5.2m from 386 in Australia, and $4.9m from 563 in Spain. Italy generated $2.2m from 519, Brazil $2.1m from 471, Sweden $1.1m from 110, and Holland $995,000 from 109. The film dropped 41% in the second weekend in Malaysia on $840,000 from 119 for $2.8m.

Meanwhile Angels & Demons added $22.3 in its fourth weekend from 9,190 screens in 100 territories for $293m internationally and $409m worldwide and held exceptionally well in Northern Europe.

• Box office in Germany fell 25% to $3.8m from 1,042 for $36.2m, 12% in Spain on $1.9m from 615 for $18.4m, and gained 15% in the UK, where the cooler weather will have played a significant role, grossing $1.8m from 615 for $24.8m.

Night At The Museum 2 is on the cusp of $150m after adding $26.7m through Fox International from 8,300 screens in 66 markets for $148.4m.

• The family sequel debuted at number one in South Korea on $4.8m from 542 screens and stayed top in its second weekend in China on $2.1m from 818 for $12.2m. Box office climbed 7% in the third weekend in the UK as $3.5m from 508 secured second place and raised the tally to $23.2m. In other third weekend results, Night At The Museum 2added $2.5m from 803 in Germany for $11.9m, $1.7m from 371 in Australia for $9m, $1.5m from 654 in France for $9.8m, $1.4m from 420 in Spain for $6.6m, and $1.4m from 511 in Italy for $7.8m.
• X-Men Origins: Wolverine brought in a further $3.2m from 5,096 in 48 markets for $176.1m. Mexico deserves special mention as $1.6m from 1,106 raised the tally after two weekends to a whisker over $7m.

Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures International reported that Up took $7.8m from 1,200 sites in four territories for an early $13.5m running total

• Weekend business was led by a number one $3.8m launch in Mexico on 547 screens that beat the combined results of the films ranked second to fourth. Studio executives said 41% of the box office came from 3D screens, which currently account for only 20% of the nation’s screen count, adding that this was the second biggest Pixar launch behind Wall-E. In the second weekend Up fell 35% in Russia on $2.6m for $8.4m and is expected to overhaul Ratatouille by Monday and Wall-E by Wednesday to become the biggest Pixar release. Up opened top in Venezuela on $835,000 for Disney’s biggest animated launch, and debuted at number in Colombia on $455,000 for the second biggest animated Disney debut.
• Hannah Montana The Movie grossed $5.6m from 2,100 screens in 18 sites for $43.5m. The tween release opened in second place in Germany on $3.9m and added $346,000 from 325 in its second month in Spain for $8.2m. Austria stands at $1.1m.

In its fifth weekend of international release Paramount’s Star Trek added $6m from 4,370 sites in 62 territories through PPI to bring the international running total to $112m.

• The sci-fi reboot launched in Mexico on $1.1m from 448 venues and benefited from that cool UK to gain 2% as $1.4m from 427 raised the tally there to more than $30m after five weeks.
• The comedy I Lve You, Man grossed $1.8m from 445 locations in 29 territories for $12.5m and launched in Australia on $1.5m from 190 sites
• DreamWorks Animations’ Monsters Vs Aliens added $1.6m from 1,247 venues in 63 territories for $169.4m.

Universal/UPI’s State Of Play added $2.5m from 1,170 sites in 28 territories for a $28.1m international running total.

• The thriller and BBC miniseries adaptation opened in sixth place in Mexico on $685,000 from 300 and added $930,000 from 214 in Australia for $3.2m after two weekends, ranking fourth heading into Monday’s national holiday. There are 25 territories to open including Argentina and Brazil next weekend.
• Coraline grossed a further $2.1m from 1,105 venues in 24 territories for $26.4m, buoyed by an excellent $1.2m debut in Spain in fifth place from 296 sites. Once again that inclement UK weather helped, and Coraline bounced back 32% as $600,000 from 391 boosted the tally to $10.3m after five weekends. There are 19 territories to open over the next few months including France this week.
• Elsewhere, the crime caper Duplicity stands at $35.9m and launched in fifth place in Brazil on $215,000 from 49, while Fast & Furious has reached a superb $193.9m; and

Mandate International’s Sam Raimi horror release Drag Me To Hell was forecast to have grossed $2.4m from new debuts in Thailand and the Philippines, which would bring the total to $7.3m.

 

[Eric Brooks]

Will Ferrell should take some time off, seriously. With the 15 million OW of Semi-Pro and now the disappointing OW for Land of the Lost it's looking like some people are growing tired of his same old shtick.

truth, he's definitley over stayed his welcome in the industry with his 1 dimensional acting. Too many films too soon for that low level of skill to beable to survive any longer than it already has. If he had at least a little more talent in him to beable to switch up his roles (like Jim Carrey, who can go from comedic to serious overnight) and not just stick to comedies, he may have a shot, but if he's going to continue playing the same character over and over and over and over again, then that just wont fly.

It's just human nature to grow tired of redundency

and it's my belief that the world has grown tired of him


I hope, because I sure as hell have

 

[Etienne]

truth, he's definitley over stayed his welcome in the industry with his 1 dimensional acting. Too many films too soon for that low level of skill to beable to survive any longer than it already has. If he had at least a little more talent in him to beable to switch up his roles (like Jim Carrey, who can go from comedic to serious overnight) and not just stick to comedies, he may have a shot, but if he's going to continue playing the same character over and over and over and over again, then that just wont fly.

It's just human nature to grow tired of redundency

and it's my belief that the world has grown tired of him


I hope, because I sure as hell have

His popularity is fading like that of Mike Myers except, you know...only quicker. From watching his Conan interview he seems to enjoy "acting" on stage, so he should stick to that for a while.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

Sorry to go off topic, but YES!.....

'Hangover' is No. 1 at the U.S. box office

LOS ANGELES, June 8 (UPI) --

Despite early estimates that put "Up" at the top of the U.S. box office this past weekend, numbers released Monday indicate "The Hangover" is the true leader.

Variety.com said the R-rated comedy "The Hangover," starring Ed Helms, Bradley Cooper and Heather Graham, performed better than expected Sunday, raking in a weekend total of $45 million.

Disney-Pixar's animated adventure "Up," meanwhile, earned between $44.3 million and $44.4 million from Friday to Sunday, the entertainment industry trade newspaper said.

Estimates provided by the studios Sunday suggested "Up" would win the weekend at $44.2 million, while "Hangover" would follow in second place with $43.3 million.

Aside from the 1-2 place switch Monday, the rest of the U.S. box office's top 10 rankings remained the same.

"Land of the Lost" came in at No. 3, followed by "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" at No. 4, "Star Trek" at No. 5, "Terminator Salvation" at No. 6, "Drag Me to Hell" at No. 7, "Angels & Demons" at No. 8, "My Life in Ruins" at No. 9 and "Dance Flick" at No. 10.

 

[bullets]

Terminator Salvation

Worldwide: $204,673,319

Made it's money back ?

 

[Dog Logan]

Nope, for it to really have made it's money back it'll have to do really, really well overseas or make all of it's budget back in the U.S. and more. I think it may do just that, but it's not going to make double it's budget or anything like that.

 

[Deaths Head II]

Terminator Salvation

Worldwide: $204,673,319

Made it's money back ?

Theaters get a percentage of the sales and a lot of money is spent on advertising and whatnot. So no.

 

[Dog Logan]

Exactly, there are many factors to take into account with the box office, and those factors are often ignored by many.