The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[dony2012]

That's illogical. Perhaps the point you are trying to make is that BB sold more tickets because of lower prices, but it only made $4 million more than CA:TFA. As noted, adjusting for inflation isn't really meaningful.

Wha...?!

ALL I'M TRYING TO SAY IS... More people saw BB. That's all.

 

[Shadowlord X]

But that wasn't the point Dony.

The point was that some people were implying that nolan's batman films were all mega-successes and that is completely FALSE. Only tdk was...(and of course tdkr most likely will be). BB was no more of a success than CA:TFA and XMO:W.

End of discussion.

 

[BigThor]

It's funny how you only mentioned what I said about inflation, ignoring the other thing that gave Cap a big boost... 3D! of 20-25%!

So yeah... BB made more.

3D is also a double whammy, because the higher ticket prices also means less ticket sales because of the increased price.

 

[dony2012]

3D is also a double whammy, because the higher ticket prices also means less ticket sales because of the increased price.

For some, for others, like Avatar, AIWL, POTC4, TF3 and Toy Story 3 it means more ticket sales ...

 

[Shadowlord X]

IMO when you have a good movie that does't have a lot of hype 3D hurts. Because the are less initial viewers due to people turning away from the 3D. As a result there are less people in the initial wave spreading good WOM.

But I could be wrong; I'm no analyst.

 

[Dark Knight]

Still... I'll be shocked if the film doesn't cross the 700 million mark.

Well the budget for TDKRises is allegedly around 185-200 million?

So that means the production for the Avengers is around 230-250 million...not including marketing?

My prediction: The Avengers will NOT break the 1 billion mark Worldwide.

I say anywhere between 700-800 million WorldWide Box Office max.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Well the budget for TDKRises is allegedly around 185-200 million?

So that means the production for the Avengers is around 230-250 million...not including marketing?

My prediction: The Avengers will NOT break the 1 billion mark Worldwide.

I say anywhere between 700-800 million WorldWide Box Office max.

I say anywhere between 700-800 million WorldWide Box Office MINIMUM.
Think about it, Iron Man 2 made 600M WW with no 3D. The Avengers is going to be waaaay better, waaaay bigger, and get the 3D boost.

 

[Rock Sexton]

I say anywhere between 700-800 million WorldWide Box Office MINIMUM.
Think about it, Iron Man 2 made 600M WW with no 3D. The Avengers is going to be waaaay better, waaaay bigger, and get the 3D boost.

Ya .... 800 million minimum IMO ..... There is so much freaking buzz about this film. I'm constantly hearing it referenced on interviews and new television. They haven't even begun the official television campaign yet.

 

[EternalMaster]

This should be the year of 3 movies that break 1 billion:

Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit

Hobbit is the least likely to do so, but if they hype ramps up and the next trailer sells it harder (if that's possible), then yeah, it should get there.

 

[Gamma Burst]

It will break the 1 billion mark.

 

[T"Challa]

This should be the year of 3 movies that break 1 billion:

Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit

Hobbit is the least likely to do so, but if they hype ramps up and the next trailer sells it harder (if that's possible), then yeah, it should get there.

Actually i'd say The Hobbit is the best bet to hit a Billion. but i see the Avengers making 800+ at least. the buzz and hype is there, the trailers are being watched at a record pace, the early reviews of the rough cut were very positive etc.

 

[jmc]

I say anywhere between 700-800 million WorldWide Box Office MINIMUM.
Think about it, Iron Man 2 made 600M WW with no 3D. The Avengers is going to be waaaay better, waaaay bigger, and get the 3D boost.

What adds the extra 400 million?

 

[Splat]

The big advantage that the Avengers has is it's first out of the gate, which helped out Thor a lot last year. I love that Marvel Studios has staked claim to the first weekend in May, always gives me something to look forward to. FCBD + the new Marvel blockbuster.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

What adds the extra 400 million?

The other 6 big characters (Cap, Thor, Hulk, Nick Fury, Hawkeye and Widow)
The TOP NOTCH special effects
The extra 30 minutes added on make for a pretty long movie (the biggest movies of all time have been pretty long)
The enormous scale
The 3D
Disney marketing/distributing

 

[jmc]

The other 6 big characters (Cap, Thor, Hulk, Nick Fury, Hawkeye and Widow)
The TOP NOTCH special effects
The extra 30 minutes added on make for a pretty long movie (the biggest movies of all time have been pretty long)
The enormous scale
The 3D
Disney marketing/distributing

But that doesn't add $400 million extra. To get that requires substantial repeated viewings, the likes of which are rare for superheroes, even with a 3D inflation. I'm not saying any of this to start a flame war, if it makes a billion dollars it makes it and I could care less to be honest, but the logic I've read behind it getting there from some is a little bit off.

 

[Quasimod0]

Iron Man 2 made a ton. This film ramps up the appeal and wow factor by about ten. It will make a ton of money

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

But that doesn't add $400 million extra. To get that requires substantial repeated viewings, the likes of which are rare for superheroes, even with a 3D inflation. I'm not saying any of this to start a flame war, if it makes a billion dollars it makes it and I could care less to be honest, but the logic I've read behind it getting there from some is a little bit off.

How does that not get it 400M extra? Did I not say I expect this to be waaay better and waaay bigger than Iron Man 2?
Iron Man 2 has 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and had decent action and scale, yet it still made 623.9mil at the box office
The Avengers is going to be MUCH better recieved in my opinion and it's going to have MUCH more action and scale. That's where the "substantial repeated viewings" are gonna come from. We're talking about Transformers 3 with an actual good story and characters here for cryin out loud... c'mon man.

When this year is all said and done this is how I expect things to pan out
1. Avatar $2,782.3
2. Titanic $1,843.2
3. Harry Potter DH pt. 2 $1,328.1
4. Transformers 3 $1,123.7
5. Return of the King $1,119.9
6. The Hobbit pt 1 $1,090.0
7. Dead Man's Chest $1,066.2
8. Toy Story 3 $1,063.2
9. The Dark Knight Rises $1,060.0
10. The Avengers $1,055.0
11. On Stranger Tides $1,043.9
12. Alice on Wonderland $1,024.3
13. The Phantom Menace $1,012.3^ (Still in theaters)
14. The Dark Knight $1,001.9

 

[TheGambler]

Well the budget for TDKRises is allegedly around 185-200 million?

The budget for TDKR is around $250M.

But yeah, this film has a big chance of grossing well over $900M, it could pass $1B, but we'll see. Anything over $700M is a huge success for Avengers.

 

[DyeLorean]

I still can't believe Avatar did almost $3,000. Not that it didn't deserve it, I'm just amazed that Cameron could break his own record. That's remarkable.

 

[jmc]

How does that not get it 400M extra? Did I not say I expect this to be waaay better and waaay bigger than Iron Man 2?
Iron Man 2 has 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and had decent action and scale, yet it still made 623.9mil at the box office
The Avengers is going to be MUCH better recieved in my opinion and it's going to have MUCH more action and scale. That's where the ''substantial repeated viewings'' are gonna come from. We're talking about Transformers 3 with an actual good story and characters here for cryin out loud... c'mon man.

Saying it's going to be bigger doesn't mean anything though. What you're failing to realize is that IM2 box office wasn't that much of an increase over IM1. Transformers 3 was coming off the back of it's predecessor which grossed nearly $850 million but when you do the math the only real difference between films 2 and 3 is the 3D inflation which was around 60-70% of total box office. If IM2 had a substantially bigger box office intake than film one (of say 150-200 million or so) then yes I would agree it's in with a shot, but it's more than 200 million behind where TF2 was already meaning you've gotta do more business, and I just can't see that happening because a billion dollars is still not an easy task 3D inflation or not. Everyone pointing to TDK needs to realize it was a fluke-ish perfect storm for a superhero film, it barely got there.

I still can't believe Avatar did almost $3,000. Not that it didn't deserve it, I'm just amazed that Cameron could break his own record. That's remarkable.

Something tells me he alone believed he would.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Saying it's going to be bigger doesn't mean anything though. What you're failing to realize is that IM2 box office wasn't that much of an increase over IM1.

I'm not failing to realize anything. Iron Man 2 barely made more that 1 because Iron Man 2 was inferior to Iron Man 1 in every way. It shouldn't have even made more at all. And I don't see what anything you said there has to do with "bigger doesn't mean anything" unless you were insinuating Iron Man 2 was actually bigger than Iron Man.

Transformers 3 was coming off the back of it's predecessor which grossed nearly $850 million but when you do the math the only real difference between films 2 and 3 is the 3D inflation which was around 60-70% of total box office.

The Transformers series grosses so much because each one was a LARGE SCALE movie, and the reason there's not much of a leap is because they're all fairly the same in terms of quality and action. There's nothing truly distinguishable about them, which is a different case when it comes to Iron Man 2 and The Avengers

If IM2 had a substantially bigger box office intake than film one (of say 150-200 million or so) then yes I would agree it's in with a shot, but it's more than 200 million behind where TF2 was already meaning you've gotta do more business, and I just can't see that happening because a billion dollars is still not an easy task 3D inflation or not.

The biggest flaw in your logic is that you're not taking into account how much of a leap each movie was in terms of quality and scope. Had Iron Man 2 actually been bigger and better than Iron Man 1 I'm pretty sure it would have made around 750 million, but it wasn't. Had Transformers 3 actually been substantially more epic than 2 it would have made much more than it did. The Avengers will be a MUCH bigger leap in term of quality and scope than Transformers 2 to 3 and Iron Man 1 to 2.

Everyone pointing to TDK needs to realize it was a fluke-ish perfect storm for a superhero film, it barely got there.

The Dark Knight was a perfect storm, yes, but it wasn't a fluke in the slightest. The Dark Knight earned it's gross and anyone who has seen it could have guessed it would be one of the biggest films of all time. I predicted Toy Story 3, Transformers 3 and Deathly Hallows would cross a billion and I was right. Sometimes it just makes sense for a movie to cross a billion, this is one of those times despite what you say.

On Stranger Tides was a fluke, there's no earthly reason whatsoever that film should have made a billion dollars.

 

[FreeRadical]

Between 600-700 million at the low end of the scale, but it will depend on the international box-office and if the film has the legs to survive the summer.

The problem is that you can't predict the public mindset. The Dark Knight was a zeitgeist film, a film of the moment in terms of the way the world was at that time, which could be a factor for it's box-office returns. Titanic was the same, with people returning to see the film again and again (and DeCapiro fangirls).

Today it is so easy to get a billion, even a remake of Alice in Wonderland did it, which kinds of weakens the milestone, especially last year alone with 3 films passing the billion mark. 3D is a big factor for some of these recent films passing a billion, so The Avengers could get a billion, but it depends if the audience are willing to pay extra for 3D.

 

[jmc]

I'm not failing to realize anything. Iron Man 2 barely made more that 1 because Iron Man 2 was inferior to Iron Man 1 in every way. It shouldn't have even made more at all. And I don't see what anything you said there has to do with "bigger doesn't mean anything" unless you were insinuating Iron Man 2 was actually bigger than Iron Man.


The Transformers series grosses so much because each one was a LARGE SCALE movie, and the reason there's not much of a leap is because they're all fairly the same in terms of quality and action. There's nothing truly distinguishable about them, which is a different case when it comes to Iron Man 2 and The Avengers


The biggest flaw in your logic is that you're not taking into account how much of a leap each movie was in terms of quality and scope. Had Iron Man 2 actually been bigger and better than Iron Man 1 I'm pretty sure it would have made around 750 million, but it wasn't. Had Transformers 3 actually been substantially more epic than 2 it would have made much more than it did. The Avengers will be a MUCH bigger leap in term of quality and scope than Transformers 2 to 3 and Iron Man 1 to 2.


The Dark Knight was a perfect storm, yes, but it wasn't a fluke in the slightest. The Dark Knight earned it's gross and anyone who has seen it could have guessed it would be one of the biggest films of all time. I predicted Toy Story 3, Transformers 3 and Deathly Hallows would cross a billion and I was right. Sometimes it just makes sense for a movie to cross a billion, this is one of those times despite what you say.

On Stranger Tides was a fluke, there's no earthly reason whatsoever that film should have made a billion dollars.

General rule for my posts, don't bother splitting them up and reply coz I'm never going to respond in turn. All I'll say is my points are still valid, a substantial audience increase is needed to hit a billion for Avengers but I feel you just don't want to hear that. You're excited for the film, that's fine, more power to you, but you haven't shown any reason to me other than the 'scale' of the movie (which is open to debate as well) to counter my argument. Just coz a film looks big doesn't mean it will be, you can never tell what public reaction is going to be, you can't really argue that. All in all it matters little, the movie is going to make money, a billion dollars doesn't make a movie great and why it's so important for some is kinda mind boggling to me to be honest, I get the feeling some want that number as some sort of validation or as a means to shove it in people's faces, why is beyond me but whatever, as long as it's a well made movie then everyone wins as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Quasimod0]

You guys are acting like this is iron man 3. Its not. Its a sequel to all of the MCU films

 

[jmc]

You guys are acting like this is iron man 3. Its not. Its a sequel to all of the MCU films

Yeah but Iron Man is the benchmark. You gotta go off something.