The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[JB-the-Hunter]

General rule for my posts, don't bother spiting them up and reply coz I'm never going to respond in turn. All I'll say is my points are still valid, a substantial audience increase is needed to hit a billion for Avengers but I feel you just don't want to hear that. You're excited for the film, that's fine, more power to you, but you haven't shown any reason to me other than the 'scale' of the movie (which is open to debate as well) to counter my argument. Just coz a film looks big doesn't mean it will be, you can never tell what public reaction is going to be, you can't really argue that. All in all it matters little, the movie is going to make money, a billion dollars doesn't make a movie great and why it's so important for some is kinda mind boggling to me to be honest, I get the feeling some want that number as some sort of validation or as a means to shove it in people's faces, why is beyond me but whatever, as long as it's a well made movie then everyone wins as far as I'm concerned.

I know a substantial audience increase is needed, I never said it wasn't. The point I tried to make is that there WILL be a substantial audience increase because of the nature of the film. You used to the leap from Iron Man 1 to 2 as comparison of how big you think the leap from Iron Man 2 to The Avengers will be. But every indication we've got from this movie says the leap in quality and scope will be much greater than your example. The leap from Batman Begins to The Dark Knight is a better example, it did a lot better because the stakes were raised much higher, just as I suspect will be the case for The Avengers.

Me being excited for the movie really has nothing to do with how much money I think it will make, I'm not really too excited to see TDKR but I'm confident It'll make a billion. And while it would be nice for the Avengers to gross a billion it's not important to me in the slightest. This is the box office thread so I'm stating how much I think it will make.

Let's face it, two logical minds on two different sides of an argument will never agree until something concrete comes along, so let's drop this until then.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Top 9 films of the year prediction

1. The Hobbit pt 1 $1,090.0
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1,060.0
3. The Avengers $1,055.0
4. Twilight saga Breaking Dawn pt 2 $918.5
5. The Hunger Games $678.0
6. Prometheus $655.0
7. The Amazing Spider-Man $650.0
8. John Carter $650.0
9. Men in Black III $585.5

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Where's the Amazing Spider-man and Ice Age 4?

and The Hobbit will make alot more than that.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Where's the Amazing Spider-man and Ice Age 4?

and The Hobbit will make alot more than that.

If you agreed with this list where would you place them? I guess Spidey would go right above John Carter, Ice Age 4 = Shrek 4

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Ice Age 4 = 800 m minimum
ASM = 900 m minimum

 

[BigThor]

ASM = 900 million minimum?

You can't be serious?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

ASM won't get less than 275 m domestic and 625 m overseas.

So yes I'm very serious.

 

[BigThor]

Spider-Man 3 didn't even make 900 million dollars and ASM doesn't have nearly the amount of hype SM3 had.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It will make less than SM3 domestically but inflation, expanded markets, 3D, and possible improved quality from SM3 will give a small boost domestically and a huge boost overseas.

 

[The Morningstar]

I think all three comic book movies will make at least 700 million. I think ASM will make the least amount. But still, anything around that mark has gotta be considered a pretty big success.

 

[BigThor]

Yeah I'm not saying ASM isn't going to be a big hit, but having 900 million as it's minimum is a bit much.

 

[Moridin]

This should be the year of 3 movies that break 1 billion:
Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit

Hobbit is the least likely to do so

Really? I'd say The Hobbit will be BO King this year, should quite easily cross 1bn. I mean look at the trilogy numbers:
FOTR - $871,530,324
TTT - $926,047,111
ROTK - $1,119,929,521

Inflation + 3d + 10 years for the fanbase to grow.

All I'll say is my points are still valid, a substantial audience increase is needed to hit a billion for Avengers

Nobody has argued otherwise.

You're excited for the film, that's fine, more power to you, but you haven't shown any reason to me other than the 'scale' of the movie (which is open to debate as well) to counter my argument.

You keep doing this. Completely ignoring peoples points =/= people not having points. And the condescending tone doesn't help either.

You did it the other day in the Misc Films forum and a couple of months back in this forum. Someone puts up several points as to how TA could get to 1bn, then you ignore those points and reply with something along the lines of "the team up aspect is not enough to generate bigger BO".

At this point I can only think you are trying to get a reaction.

So how about this:
-China opening up more to western films.
-3D (IM didn't have it)
-Great release date/low competition
-Much lager scope (& budget) than the previous MCU films.
-Huge action (Spectacle)
-Aaaaaand yes, the team up factor, too.
-Word of mouth. If this is the film I think it will be (well written with great characters, not just big mindless action) pretty much anyone who has seen it will be telling their family & friends to see it.

That's what can provide the $376m jump from IM2's numbers to 1bn. And I'm not even claiming it definitely will, just that the potential is there. But go ahead, ignore my points again.

 

[PowerPacked]

People can't deny that Avengers has as much hype as TDKR anymore now, especially with the trailer.

It's going to be a fight for who makes a billion first. TDK took six months and a rerelease to make a billion, and that was with zero real competition due to the Writers Strike. People constantly forget this, particularly that idiot in in the TDKR boards who honestly believes TDKR will get to 2 billion, even though it's got competition and even if it didn't, it'd take two years to reach it. He's just flaunting that he got it right that TDK would gross over a billion, and even then he was wrong, saying he predicted 1.2 billion, where it grossed....1.01 billion. He still said he was close, which is like saying 400 million is basically 600 million. I mean, it's the same distance apart, right?

Pirates 4 is basically the marketing strategy for Avengers, which made a billion in a few weeks, and has a lot of hype, too.

ASM is ****ing Spider-Man. People who think it will bomb (and in the case of one person in the ASM boards, actually HOPES it will suck) are just stupid. It'll make cash. Maybe not a billion, but it'll make cash.

 

[Moridin]

that idiot in in the TDKR boards who honestly believes TDKR will get to 2 billion,

t: I saw that, I think TDKR will do big bank, & will most likely be #2 this year, but 2bn? .

ASM is ****ing Spider-Man. People who think it will bomb (and in the case of one person in the ASM boards, actually HOPES it will suck) are just stupid. It'll make cash. Maybe not a billion, but it'll make cash.

It'll do good for sure, but it is a reboot with with an entirely new cast and some big competition coming out soon after (TDKR, Ice Age). I don't think it'll do anywhere near the Raimi films.

Top 9 films of the year prediction

1. The Hobbit pt 1 $1,090.0
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1,060.0
3. The Avengers $1,055.0
4. Twilight saga Breaking Dawn pt 2 $918.5
5. The Hunger Games $678.0
6. Prometheus $655.0
7. The Amazing Spider-Man $650.0
8. John Carter $650.0
9. Men in Black III $585.5

I agree with your top 3, though I think the Hobbit could potentially go well over 1 billion. TDKR -900m to 1bn+. Avengers - 800m to 1bn.
The last 3 Twilight flicks have been stuck at 700m, so I'll say the final one won't do much more than that.
Agreed with your Spidey, JC & MIB predictions. Don't know much about Hunger or Prometheus.

I think Snow White & the Huntsman could be pretty big. A large chunk of Twilights base could follow Stewart over & it looks to have broader appeal than Twilight. Also looks like a good/fun film in general.

 

[BigThor]

Yeah, I can't wait to see Hemsworth as the Huntsman in "Snow White and The Huntsman".

 

[Moridin]

^^Dude has a big year. Cabin in the Woods, The Avengers, Snow White, Red Dawn & filming Thor 2 & Rush.

 

[warhorse78]

Yeah, I can't wait to see Hemsworth as the Huntsman in "Snow White and The Huntsman".

Oh yes, a couple of the Avengers are going to be sinking their teeth into some juicy roles, Hemsworth looks hot as hell in the Huntsmen movie, and Jeremy Renner looks to be at the top of his game in the Bourne Legacy.

 

[jmc]

You keep doing this. Completely ignoring peoples points =/= people not having points. And the condescending tone doesn't help either.

You did it the other day in the Misc Films forum and a couple of months back in this forum. Someone puts up several points as to how TA could get to 1bn, then you ignore those points and reply with something along the lines of ''the team up aspect is not enough to generate bigger ''.

At this point I can only think you are trying to get a reaction.

Oh please I'm not trying to provoke anything, what the hell do I get out of doing that? I'm kinda sick of trying to join a conversation in a respectful manner only to be accused of crap like that on this forum, ****ing ****s me. I just haven't seen anyone give a decent argument to convince me and others otherwise.

So how about this:
-China opening up more to western films.
-3D (IM didn't have it)
-Great release date/low competition
-Much lager scope (''budget) than the previous MCU films.
-Huge action (Spectacle)
-Aaaaaand yes, the team up factor, too.
-Word of mouth. If this is the film I think it will be (well written with great characters, not just big mindless action) pretty much anyone who has seen it will be telling their family ''friends to see it.

That's what can provide the $376m jump from IM2's numbers to 1bn. And I'm not even claiming it definitely will, just that the potential is there. But go ahead, ignore my points again.

Oh don't make out like I ignore peoples points, I just don't agree with some of the points that they're enough for a billion to be reached given the performance of Marvel's previous movies. 376 million is a huge leap, effing huge and I just don't think many are aware of how huge a task that is, 3D inflation included. But you know what? You're one of the few I've read to use word of mouth as a reason and yes if it's as good a movie as you hope it will be then word of mouth could be extraordinary.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

You're one of the few I've read to use word of mouth as a reason and yes if it's as good a movie as you hope it will be then word of mouth could be extraordinary.

Word of mouth goes along with it being a bigger and better movie, I don't have to actually list it for it to be included in one of the reasons.

But anyway, last year 3 movies grossed a billion (Harry Potter, Transformers 3, and Pirates 4) All 3 were the obvious biggest movies of the year and all 3 were in 3D.

The year before, 2 movies grossed a billion (Toy Story 3 and Alice in Wonderland) One was the obvious biggest movie of the year and the other was a bit of a surprise, both were in 3D.

This year, I believe 3 movies will gross a billion (The Hobbit, TDKR and The Avengers) All 3 are obviously the biggest movies of the year and 2 of them are in 3D, The Avengers being one of them.

 

[Dark Knight]

What adds the extra 400 million?

Exactly. I think this film will be heavily front loaded at the box office.

If this film would have been released say during 4th of July weekend without having to worry about TDKRises 2 weeks later, than I think 1 billion WW would have a real possibility and the domestic would get a significant bump.

I also think the foreign box office will not reach the 500-600 million mark.

The general movie audience will most likely not see this film multiple times in 3D either.

We'll see though.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Exactly. I think this film will be heavily front loaded at the box office.

If this film would have been released say during 4th of July weekend without having to worry about TDKRises 2 weeks later, than I think 1 billion WW would have a real possibility and the domestic would get a significant bump.

I also think the foreign box office will not reach the 500-600 million mark.

The general movie audience will most likely not see this film multiple times in 3D either.

We'll see though.

Never surprised to see this kind of analysis from a Batty.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Exactly. I think this film will be heavily front loaded at the box office.

If this film would have been released say during 4th of July weekend without having to worry about TDKRises 2 weeks later, than I think 1 billion WW would have a real possibility and the domestic would get a significant bump.

I also think the foreign box office will not reach the 500-600 million mark.

The general movie audience will most likely not see this film multiple times in 3D either.

We'll see though.

Movies that are front loaded are usually movies that are more hyped than they are good ala Twilight and The Last Airbender. By saying that The Avengers is going to be front loaded, I'm assuming you don't think it'll be good enough to have legs, but everything we've seen or heard from people who've seen it indicate otherwise.

 

[Dark Knight]

But that doesn't add $400 million extra. To get that requires substantial repeated viewings, the likes of which are rare for superheroes, even with a 3D inflation. I'm not saying any of this to start a flame war, if it makes a billion dollars it makes it and I could care less to be honest, but the logic I've read behind it getting there from some is a little bit off.

That is what I'm saying as well. This film will need big time repeat viewings. Plus I think some in here are underestimating the competition in the weeks after the Avengers release. There is good and bad with an early release date in May. We know what the good is, but the bad is the competition after. I don't feel that the general movie audience will be paying for repeat viewings for The Avengers, because there will so many other big and interesting films in the month in a half after, that they will want to spend their money on to see for the first time, instead of seeing Avengers for the 2nd and 3rd time. The general movie audience out weighs the fanboy audience.

The week after Avengers must deal with "that guy again" in Johnny Depp in another Tim Burton directed film based on a popular show in Dark Shadows.

Depp and Burton have a crap load of loyal fans and the cast is spectacular for Dark Shadows. This film will take box office money away from The Avengers and the hilarious Sasha Baren Cohen is coming out with The Dictator. Sasha has plenty of fans and the ones who want to see a comedy will take box office money away as well. Avengers may still be #1 in it's 2nd weekend, but it will not be easy.

Then Avengers has to deal with a relatively big release in it's 3rd weekend with Battleship.

Then after, the 3rd film of a big time franchise with guess who in the lead? Someone named Will Smith, whose Men in Black sci fi comedies have done pretty damn well overall at the box office and Smith is a notch below Depp when it comes to a name actor that equals box office gold.

Then in early June they have Snow White and Huntsman, a big film for kids in Madagascar 3 and the anticipated Ridley Scott Sci-Fi horrow in Prometheus.

The later in June, Ab Lincoln:Vampire Hunter and a anticipated Pixar release in Brave.

It's not going to be easy for The Avengers to get to 1 Billion WW at the Box Office. I think some of you are underestimating the competition....big time.

 

[Dark Knight]

Movies that are front loaded are usually movies that are more hyped than they are good ala Twilight and The Last Airbender. By saying that The Avengers is going to be front loaded, I'm assuming you don't think it'll be good enough to have legs, but everything we've seen or heard from people who've seen it indicate otherwise.

This film will need big time repeat viewings to get to 1 billion WW.

Plus I think some in here are underestimating the competition in the weeks after the Avengers release. There is good and bad with an early release date in May. We know what the good is, but the bad is the competition after. I don't feel that the general movie audience will be paying for repeat viewings for The Avengers, because there will so many other big and interesting films in the month in a half after, that they will want to spend their money on to see for the first time, instead of seeing Avengers for the 2nd and 3rd time. The general movie audience out weighs the fanboy audience.

The week after Avengers must deal with "that guy again" in Johnny Depp in another Tim Burton directed film based on a popular show in Dark Shadows.

Depp and Burton have a crap load of loyal fans and the cast is spectacular for Dark Shadows. This film will take box office money away from The Avengers and the hilarious Sasha Baren Cohen is coming out with The Dictator. Sasha has plenty of fans and the ones who want to see a comedy will take box office money away as well. Avengers may still be #1 in it's 2nd weekend, but it will not be easy.

Then Avengers has to deal with a relatively big release in it's 3rd weekend with Battleship.

Then after, the 3rd film of a big time franchise with guess who in the lead? Someone named Will Smith, whose Men in Black sci fi comedies have done pretty damn well overall at the box office and Smith is a notch below Depp when it comes to a name actor that equals box office gold.

Then in early June they have Snow White and Huntsman, a big film for kids in Madagascar 3 and the anticipated Ridley Scott Sci-Fi horrow in Prometheus.

The later in June, Ab Lincoln:Vampire Hunter and a anticipated Pixar release in Brave.

It's not going to be easy for The Avengers to get to 1 Billion WW at the Box Office. I think some of you are underestimating the competition....big time.

 

[Rock Sexton]

This film will need big time repeat viewings to get to 1 billion WW.

Plus I think some in here are underestimating the competition in the weeks after the Avengers release. There is good and bad with an early release date in May. We know what the good is, but the bad is the competition after. I don't feel that the general movie audience will be paying for repeat viewings for The Avengers, because there will so many other big and interesting films in the month in a half after, that they will want to spend their money on to see for the first time, instead of seeing Avengers for the 2nd and 3rd time. The general movie audience out weighs the fanboy audience.

The week after Avengers must deal with "that guy again" in Johnny Depp in another Tim Burton directed film based on a popular show in Dark Shadows.

Depp and Burton have a crap load of loyal fans and the cast is spectacular for Dark Shadows. This film will take box office money away from The Avengers and the hilarious Sasha Baren Cohen is coming out with The Dictator. Sasha has plenty of fans and the ones who want to see a comedy will take box office money away as well. Avengers may still be #1 in it's 2nd weekend, but it will not be easy.

Then Avengers has to deal with a relatively big release in it's 3rd weekend with Battleship.

Then after, the 3rd film of a big time franchise with guess who in the lead? Someone named Will Smith, whose Men in Black sci fi comedies have done pretty damn well overall at the box office and Smith is a notch below Depp when it comes to a name actor that equals box office gold.

Then in early June they have Snow White and Huntsman, a big film for kids in Madagascar 3 and the anticipated Ridley Scott Sci-Fi horrow in Prometheus.

The later in June, Ab Lincoln:Vampire Hunter and a anticipated Pixar release in Brave.

It's not going to be easy for The Avengers to get to 1 Billion WW at the Box Office. I think some of you are underestimating the competition....big time.

The Avengers is supposed to fear an obscure Depp/Burton film, A Sasha Baron Cohen film(remind me again how he grosses), and Battleship in it's first 3 weeks? You must really assume this movie is bad.

Please don't talk to us about underestimating competition. The only film worth noting that you listed was MIB3.