The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[BigThor]

That's strange, considering Thor made most of it's money outside the US.

Yeah THOR made almost 270 mill overseas compared to it's domestic gross of 181 mill and if I'm not mistaken CA:TFA made over 190m overseas compared to 176m domestically.

 

[The Morningstar]

Avengers doesn't look like any other superhero movie ever filmed though. It isn't your standard origin story, or sequel story where the hero questions his role.

It's a friggin alien invasion war movie... that happens to have superheroes.

 

[BigThor]

Avengers doesn't look like any other superhero movie ever filmed though. It isn't your standard origin story, or sequel story where the hero questions his role.

It's a friggin alien invasion war movie... that happens to have superheroes.

Exactly

 

[Chewy]

I get the feeling people are going to keep parroting this same nonsense until the movie opens

It's like the concept of the expanding markets means nothing

I get that most people don't know much about OS box office but c'mon

Transformers 3 nearly doubled Transformers 2's overseas take. Friggin Fast Five more than doubled Fast/Furious overseas take

Avengers WILL NOT make less than 500M overseas. Simply won't happen. Feel free to quote me on that

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Avengers doesn't look like any other superhero movie ever filmed though. It isn't your standard origin story, or sequel story where the hero questions his role.

It's a friggin alien invasion war movie... that happens to have superheroes.

That's what's bothering me about a lot of these arguments.
"This didn't happen in the past so it won't happen for The Avengers"
"This only made this much at the box office, so the Avengers won't make much more than that"
"The only superheroes that make money overseas are this and this"

The Avengers is nothing like anything we've seen before. There is nothing to truly compare this movie to when trying to guess it's success. You can't just say that because, SO FAR, no superheroes have really caught on overseas other than a couple that this won't be one of them. You can't say because The Avengers has an overlapping fanbase that it won't make much more than the top dog of those franchises. The Avengers is a whole different beast, the only logical guesses about it's financial outcome must come from your own hunch rather than base it off of past trends. My hunch says over 300 million domestic, over 450 OS, and over a billion WW.

 

[BigThor]

That's what's bothering me about a lot of these arguments.
"This didn't happen in the past so it won't happen for The Avengers"
"This only made this much at the box office, so the Avengers won't make much more than that"
"The only superheroes that make money overseas are this and this"

The Avengers is nothing like anything we've seen before. There is nothing to truly compare this movie to when trying to guess it's success. You can't just say that because, SO FAR, no superheroes have really caught on overseas other than a couple that this won't be one of them. You can't say because The Avengers has an overlapping fanbase that it won't make much more than the top dog of those franchises. The Avengers is a whole different beast, the only logical guesses about it's financial outcome must come from your own hunch rather than base it off of past trends. My hunch says over 300 million domestic, over 450 OS, and over a billion WW.

I agree with both of you, this is why I can't wait until The Avengers is released because some people just won't listen to reason they have to see to believe.

 

[The Morningstar]

Well i don't think it'll make a billion. But I think it'll comfortably sail over the 700 million mark, and end up around 800-850.

 

[Chewy]

Yeah, 350M domestic/500M overseas, so around 850M worldwide, is what I would consider a reasonable prediction

However, I have a feeling its quality/wom will carry it higher

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Well i don't think it'll make a billion. But I think it'll comfortably sail over the 700 million mark, and end up around 800-850.

I did say hunch didn't I?
I wouldn't be upset with yours either though. 800+ is fine by me.

 

[dony2012]

Yeah THOR made almost 270 mill overseas compared to it's domestic gross of 181 mill and if I'm not mistaken CA:TFA made over 190m overseas compared to 176m domestically.

Thing is... That's not A LOT compared to other big films...

 

[dony2012]

Avengers doesn't look like any other superhero movie ever filmed though. It isn't your standard origin story, or sequel story where the hero questions his role.

It's a friggin alien invasion war movie... that happens to have superheroes.

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer


Green Lantern


...

 

[Chewy]

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer


Green Lantern


...

Are you referring to the giant diarrhea cloud that was on screen for 5 minutes in Green Lantern? And the 2 minute fight between Doom and Human Torch, followed by that other cloud, that Silver Surfer swept away in about 30 seconds?

Which of those was an alien invasion war movie?

 

[BigThor]

Thing is... That's not A LOT compared to other big films...

But it's MORE than their domestic gross, that means they're more popular overseas than they are in the US which was the point I made.

 

[cherokeesam]

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer


Green Lantern


...

...Battle Los Angeles; District 9; Skyline; Cowboys & Aliens; Battlefield Earth; The Day the Earth Stood Still; The Darkest Hour; Super 8; The Invasion; Attack the Block; etc. etc. etc.

Yeah, that's what some people fail to understand about the alien invasion subgenre --- there's *far* more stinkers in it than bonafide hits like TF, ID4 and MIB. Anyone thinking an alien invasion movie automatically translates to box office boffo bonanza is in for a rude awakening.

That's what's bothering me about a lot of these arguments.
"This didn't happen in the past so it won't happen for The Avengers"
"This only made this much at the box office, so the Avengers won't make much more than that"
"The only superheroes that make money overseas are this and this"

The Avengers is nothing like anything we've seen before. There is nothing to truly compare this movie to when trying to guess it's success. You can't just say that because, SO FAR, no superheroes have really caught on overseas other than a couple that this won't be one of them. You can't say because The Avengers has an overlapping fanbase that it won't make much more than the top dog of those franchises. The Avengers is a whole different beast, the only logical guesses about it's financial outcome must come from your own hunch rather than base it off of past trends. My hunch says over 300 million domestic, over 450 OS, and over a billion WW.

I understand what you're saying, and I *do* think Avengers will do very well (though I'm not nearly as optimistic as your billion-dollar mark: I'm in the 800-850 mil WW range); but you've got to understand that it DOES make sense to compare Avengers to its component parts, to compare Avengers to the past performance of similar genre movies, to compare these wild-ass guesses to the actual all-time records of OW and WW and OS and all the other acronyms....because *that* kind of speculation is grounded in fact and numbers. The kind of speculation that *you* guys are betting on is based entirely on hopes and wishes and dreams.

I hope you're right about a billion dollars. I really do. Nothing would make me happier. But at some point, realism has to be introduced into the equation; that's why actual publications like Empire and, who else was it recently, Box Office....???. posted box office projections that were a lot more modest. But they're viewing the film and its prospects realistically and objectively, whereas we view it through a haze of fanboy fangasms splattered all over the forums and blogosphere.

 

[Chewy]

...Battle Los Angeles; District 9; Skyline; Cowboys & Aliens; Battlefield Earth; The Day the Earth Stood Still; The Darkest Hour; Super 8; The Invasion; Attack the Block; etc. etc. etc.

Yeah, that's what some people fail to understand about the alien invasion subgenre --- there's *far* more stinkers in it than bonafide hits like TF, ID4 and MIB. Anyone thinking an alien invasion movie automatically translates to box office boffo bonanza is in for a rude awakening.

He said alien invasion WITH superheroes. What separates the group you have at the bottom (TF, ID4, MIB) from the group you have at the top, is that the protagonists aren't "guy #1" and "guy #2".

I understand what you're saying, and I *do* think Avengers will do very well (though I'm not nearly as optimistic as your billion-dollar mark: I'm in the 800-850 mil WW range); but you've got to understand that it DOES make sense to compare Avengers to its component parts, to compare Avengers to the past performance of similar genre movies, to compare these wild-ass guesses to the actual all-time records of OW and WW and OS and all the other acronyms....because *that* kind of speculation is grounded in fact and numbers. The kind of speculation that *you* guys are betting on is based entirely on hopes and wishes and dreams.

I hope you're right about a billion dollars. I really do. Nothing would make me happier. But at some point, realism has to be introduced into the equation; that's why actual publications like Empire and, who else was it recently, Box Office....???. posted box office projections that were a lot more modest. But they're viewing the film and its prospects realistically and objectively, whereas we view it through a haze of fanboy fangasms splattered all over the forums and blogosphere.

Not Box Office. They just forecast a $155M domestic opening weekend, and wrote a brief piece about how Harry Potter's opening weekend record could be in jeopardy

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2012-03-long-range-forecast-marvels-the-avengers

 

[eddy]

The Avengers?

Yup.

 

[The Morningstar]

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer


Green Lantern


...

Where was their war or alien invasions in those movies?

A giant cloud that resembles faeces that hovers over a city for about 10 minutes whilst being hurt by fuel tankers exploding does not make an alien invasion.

Besides, both those movies had horrendous scripts. Especially Green Lantern, which is perhaps one of the worst screenplays ever written in the superhero genre.

 

[The Morningstar]

...Battle Los Angeles; District 9; Skyline; Cowboys & Aliens; Battlefield Earth; The Day the Earth Stood Still; The Darkest Hour; Super 8; The Invasion; Attack the Block; etc. etc. etc.

None of them had superheroes. None of them had shots like Hulk catching Iron Man or Iron Man dog fighting above a NYC street.

And are you suggesting District 9, Super 8 and Attack the Block are bad movies? If so, you crazy. And wrong.

 

[cherokeesam]

He said alien invasion WITH superheroes. What separates the group you have at the bottom (TF, ID4, MIB) from the group you have at the top, is that the protagonists aren't "guy #1" and "guy #2".

Not sure what you're trying to say here, but as far as "superheroes" go, the Autobots are the only ones in that list who'd come close to qualifying as superheroes. The heroes in MIB and ID4 were ordinary joes. In any event, I doubt the inclusion of superpowers in an alien invasion scenario is going to attract *that* much more interest in the GA. Why would they be more interested in a guy walloping a spaceship with his trusty mallet or unibeam or flying shield, than watching the whole U.S. armed forces throwing everything they've got at an invasion fleet?

The invasion and the war itself is the spectacle; adding superpowers to that "adds" about as much to it as dumping a pail of water into a raging flood.

 

[The Morningstar]

Not sure what you're trying to say here, but as far as "superheroes" go, the Autobots are the only ones in that list who'd come close to qualifying as superheroes. The heroes in MIB and ID4 were ordinary joes. In any event, I doubt the inclusion of superpowers in an alien invasion scenario is going to attract *that* much more interest in the GA. Why would they be more interested in a guy walloping a spaceship with his trusty mallet or unibeam or flying shield, than watching the whole U.S. armed forces throwing everything they've got at an invasion fleet?

The invasion and the war itself is the spectacle; adding superpowers to that "adds" about as much to it as dumping a pail of water into a raging flood.

I'm sorry, but that's stupid.

What is more exciting, seeing a tank fire at an alien ship or a F-22 dog fighting with alien fighters...

Or the ****ing Hulk smashing the crap out of an alien ship and Iron Man/Thor dog fighting with alien fighters?

It's no contest. If you don't think superheroes fighting an alien invasion is inherently more spectacular than the plain ol army fighting alien invaders then... i don't really know what to say. Other than you're wrong.

It adds a completely new element to the alien invasion disaster movie thing.

"Oh, the US military fighting an alien invasion... again."

"WTF it's the ****ing Hulk destroying alien flagships! It's Iron Man dogfighting with alien fighter jets!"

 

[cherokeesam]

And are you suggesting District 9, Super 8 and Attack the Block are bad movies? If so, you crazy. And wrong.

Not suggesting that at all. BOX OFFICE, however, is a different story. None of the movies I listed had a decent box office to their credit, and the laundry list shows there's a distinct lack of interest, in general, in the alien invasion subgenre. (For the record, I showed a little mercy, too, in *just* listing the ones from the 21st century. I could go back even further to the 90s and 80s for even more examples.)

 

[cherokeesam]

I'm sorry, but that's stupid.

What is more exciting, seeing a tank fire at an alien ship or a F-22 dog fighting with alien fighters...

Or the ****ing Hulk smashing the crap out of an alien ship and Iron Man/Thor dog fighting with alien fighters?

It's no contest. If you don't think superheroes fighting an alien invasion is inherently more spectacular than the plain ol army fighting alien invaders then... i don't really know what to say. Other than you're wrong.

And I don't really know what else to say other than the fact that you're clearly letting comic-book fanboyism cloud your judgment, and your emotions, too. Geekrage ROWR.

Yes, *I* care about superheroes taking the fight to the aliens. Yes, *you* care, too. As does everyone, I'm sure, on this forum. Outside of this forum, however.....? Not nearly as many comic-book fans as one would think.

 

[Chewy]

Not sure what you're trying to say here, but as far as "superheroes" go, the Autobots are the only ones in that list who'd come close to qualifying as superheroes. The heroes in MIB and ID4 were ordinary joes. In any event, I doubt the inclusion of superpowers in an alien invasion scenario is going to attract *that* much more interest in the GA. Why would they be more interested in a guy walloping a spaceship with his trusty mallet or unibeam or flying shield, than watching the whole U.S. armed forces throwing everything they've got at an invasion fleet?

The invasion and the war itself is the spectacle; adding superpowers to that "adds" about as much to it as dumping a pail of water into a raging flood.

The hero in MIB and ID4 was Will Smith. Aka one of the biggest and most charismatic stars in the world

 

[The Morningstar]

Not suggesting that at all. BOX OFFICE, however, is a different story. None of the movies I listed had a decent box office to their credit, and the laundry list shows there's a distinct lack of interest, in general, in the alien invasion subgenre. (For the record, I showed a little mercy, too, in *just* listing the ones from the 21st century. I could go back even further to the 90s and 80s for even more examples.)

This is true. But again, if you look at the likes of ID4, TF etc. The ones that were successful, they had something going for them other than militaries fighting aliens. ID4 had Will Smith. TF has big ****ing robots. Avengers has superheroes.

 

[eddy]

None of them had superheroes. None of them had shots like Hulk catching Iron Man or Iron Man dog fighting above a NYC street.

And are you suggesting District 9, Super 8 and Attack the Block are bad movies? If so, you crazy. And wrong.

Not to mention that District 9 was a huge surprise hit and oscar nominated.