The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[The Morningstar]

And I don't really know what else to say other than the fact that you're clearly letting comic-book fanboyism cloud your judgment, and your emotions, too. Geekrage ROWR.

Yes, *I* care about superheroes taking the fight to the aliens. Yes, *you* care, too. As does everyone, I'm sure, on this forum. Outside of this forum, however.....? Not nearly as many comic-book fans as one would think.

lol i'm not raging. I just find the idea that superheroes like Iron Man and Hulk, fighting off alien invaders, is no more interesting or spectacular to the average movie goer than ANOTHER military vs alien invaders thing, to be absurd, and incorrect.

 

[cherokeesam]

lol i'm not raging. I just find the idea that superheroes like Iron Man and Hulk, fighting off alien invaders, is no more interesting or spectacular to the average movie goer than ANOTHER military vs alien invaders thing, to be absurd, and incorrect.

Then why not take that very question you asked, and poll it on *neutral* ground? Go do a man-on-the-street informal poll, or to any non-geekery website, and ask people would they rather see (a) an alien invasion movie featuring Army vs. Aliens (such as Battleship, coming up), (b) an alien invasion movie featuring Superheroes vs. Aliens (such as Avengers, coming up), or (c) none of the above?

Let me know what you come up with. If (b) legitimately wins, I'll give you a cookie.

 

[Chewy]

Not suggesting that at all. BOX OFFICE, however, is a different story. None of the movies I listed had a decent box office to their credit, and the laundry list shows there's a distinct lack of interest, in general, in the alien invasion subgenre. (For the record, I showed a little mercy, too, in *just* listing the ones from the 21st century. I could go back even further to the 90s and 80s for even more examples.)

Please do. It would only make your argument sillier

Do you genuinely not see the difference between an alien invasion movie with actual *stars*, recognizable faces, and an alien invasion movie featuring a bunch of nobodies, or unpopular actors? Or are you intentionally trying to come off as dense?

Why not go find a list of 30 crime dramas that flopped and post it in the TDKR box office thread? Should prove people aren't interested in the premise

 

[Xeno]

Then why not take that very question you asked, and poll it on *neutral* ground? Go do a man-on-the-street informal poll, or to any non-geekery website, and ask people would they rather see (a) an alien invasion movie featuring Army vs. Aliens (such as Battleship, coming up), (b) an alien invasion movie featuring Superheroes vs. Aliens (such as Avengers, coming up), or (c) none of the above?

Let me know what you come up with. If (b) legitimately wins, I'll give you a cookie.

A far more interesting measure is the number of views for the trailers across all platforms. Going by that metric, The Avengers has Battleship, MIB3 and all other competition beat by a handy margin.


As for the eventual box office, we'll see soon enough. Some of these comments will seem laughable in hindsight. Time will tell which ones we will be chuckling at.

 

[cherokeesam]

Please do. It would only make your argument sillier

Do you genuinely not see the difference between an alien invasion movie with actual *stars*, recognizable faces, and an alien invasion movie featuring a bunch of nobodies, or unpopular actors? Or are you intentionally trying to come off as dense?

Why not go find a list of 30 crime dramas that flopped and post it in the TDKR box office thread? Should prove people aren't interested in the premise

Okay, which is it, Chewy? Is it *star power* that supposedly fuels your contention that alien invasion movies are tremendously popular, or is it *super powers?* Because I was under the impression that you were arguing that it's the presence of *superpowers* that makes the difference in the success of TF, MIB and ID4 over the less successful films in the genre.

So if it's *star power* that you're arguing instead, are you arguing that these megastars should have made their invasion films box-office blockbusters? Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig in The Invasion; John Travolta in Battlefield Earth; Keanu Reeves in TDTESS; Aaron Eckhart in Battle LA; Harrison Ford & Daniel Craig in C&A; The Entire Front Two Rows of the Academy Awards Ceremony starring in Mars Attacks!; etc. etc.

 

[Chewy]

Okay, which is it, Chewy? Is it *star power* that supposedly fuels your contention that alien invasion movies are tremendously popular, or is it *super powers?* Because I was under the impression that you were arguing that it's the presence of *superpowers* that makes the difference in the success of TF, MIB and ID4 over the less successful films in the genre.

I said that it was star power. The superheroes ARE the stars here. Just as the Transformers ARE the stars in those flicks. Just as Will Smith is the star in ID4, or Tom Cruise is the star in WotW.

So if it's *star power* that you're arguing instead, are you arguing that these megastars should have made their invasion films box-office blockbusters? Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig in The Invasion; John Travolta in Battlefield Earth; Keanu Reeves in TDTESS; Aaron Eckhart in Battle LA; Harrison Ford & Daniel Craig in C&A; The Entire Front Two Rows of the Academy Awards Ceremony starring in Mars Attacks!; etc. etc.

Almost every movie Nicole Kidman has ever been in has bombed, Daniel Craig has never had a hit outside of Bond, Eckhart isn't a recognized name outside of nerd circles, Battlefield Earth is the worst movie ever made, etc, etc

 

[cherokeesam]

A far more interesting measure is the number of views for the trailers across all platforms. Going by that metric, The Avengers has Battleship, MIB3 and all other competition beat by a handy margin.


As for the eventual box office, we'll see soon enough. Some of these comments will seem laughable in hindsight. Time will tell which ones we will be chuckling at.

Totally side-tracking this argument we're having, but I just noticed something very unusual in that gif that is in your avatar....and forgive me if I'm late to the party, but it's the first time I've noticed this about Cap: at the very end of the gif animation, it looks like Cap touches the back of his shield, and an orangey, fiery glow seems to start materializing around the shield. Have you got a blow-up of that.....???

 

[The Morningstar]

Oh god Battle LA was sooooo bad. I felt sorry for Eckhart, surrounded by those laughably bad actors.

 

[cherokeesam]

I said that it was star power. The superheroes ARE the stars here. Just as the Transformers ARE the stars in those flicks. Just as Will Smith is the star in ID4, or Tom Cruise is the star in WotW.

Not being sarcastic here, because I really want to know: do you think that Chris Evans, Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Jeremy Renner and ScarJo have the same star power that Will Smith did back in his ID4/MIB heyday, or that Tom Cruise has, or that the TF or Shia has? RDJ definitely has star power (although it's uneven since IM, in the case of The Soloist and, to some extent, Due Date), but if he's the one who's supposed to carry this film (sorry, but all the trailers and promo material so far *heavily* indicate that's what Marvel Studios, Disney, Joss Whedon and RDJ seem to think), then we go right back to the classic Iron Man-As-Highest-Common-Denominator dilemma....

 

[The Morningstar]

Iron Man is the star of the marketing, which is the correct thing to do, considering he's the most popular character and RDJ is the biggest star.

But there is four lead characters, each of whom do cool stuff. It's not your average GI fighting the battles here.

And Shia wasn't the star of Transformers. The Transformers themselves were. Also, no one is as big a star was Will Smith, when he was in his hey day anyway.

The point I think Chewy is trying to make is, the stars of Avengers are not your average US soldiers or whatever. They are superheroes who have starred in their own movies prior to this.

 

[Chewy]

Not being sarcastic here, because I really want to know: do you think that Chris Evans, Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Jeremy Renner and ScarJo have the same star power that Will Smith did back in his ID4/MIB heyday, or that Tom Cruise has, or that the TF or Shia has? RDJ definitely has star power (although it's uneven since IM, in the case of The Soloist and, to some extent, Due Date), but if he's the one who's supposed to carry this film (sorry, but all the trailers and promo material so far *heavily* indicate that's what Marvel Studios, Disney, Joss Whedon and RDJ seem to think), then we go right back to the classic Iron Man-As-Highest-Common-Denominator dilemma....

Obviously RDJ does, and the rest of the cast is recognizable to add onto that, rather than demand that RDJ hog every frame. Thor made 450M, CA made 370M, people know who the Hulk is, people know who ScarJo is, people know who SLJ, people will recognize Renner from Mission Impossible. People at least vaguely recognize everyone.

RDJ's the one who sells the film, not carries it. Goldblum and Pullman had just as much to do in the actual ID4 film as Will Smith did. But it was sold as Will Smith and friends. Just as this is being sold as RDJ and friends.

So that's actually an apt comparison

 

[Quasimod0]

We've seen dozens of movies about the army vs aliens. Never seen one about a team of superheroes vs aliens. Plus, Battleship looks like crap.

 

[Mysteryman]

The Avengers will be shown on IMAX screens for seven days .
How much will it make ?

 

[Weadazoid]

I'm sorry, but that's stupid.

What is more exciting, seeing a tank fire at an alien ship or a F-22 dog fighting with alien fighters...

Or the ****ing Hulk smashing the crap out of an alien ship and Iron Man/Thor dog fighting with alien fighters?

It's no contest. If you don't think superheroes fighting an alien invasion is inherently more spectacular than the plain ol army fighting alien invaders then... i don't really know what to say. Other than you're wrong.

It adds a completely new element to the alien invasion disaster movie thing.

"Oh, the US military fighting an alien invasion... again."

"WTF it's the ****ing Hulk destroying alien flagships! It's Iron Man dogfighting with alien fighter jets!"

I agree it takes the invasion movie to a whole new level .... I have always said how crazy would it be if this happened and it is about to happen

 

[dony2012]

But it's MORE than their domestic gross, that means they're more popular overseas than they are in the US which was the point I made.

I think it's because that in a lot of countries outside of the US you don't have a choise but to see a movie in 3D, so that's why.

And anyhow, it's still not a lot, so my point, that superhero movies are not very big outside of the US still remain... Those movies were just not very big in the US, too.

 

[Liam_H]

Totally side-tracking this argument we're having, but I just noticed something very unusual in that gif that is in your avatar....and forgive me if I'm late to the party, but it's the first time I've noticed this about Cap: at the very end of the gif animation, it looks like Cap touches the back of his shield, and an orangey, fiery glow seems to start materializing around the shield. Have you got a blow-up of that.....???

Isn't that just Iron Man's boosters?

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

superhero movies haven't been very big outside of the US still remain as of yet...

fix'd

You insinuate that the superhero aspect is why superhero movies haven't been big outside the US, when in fact it's the movies themselves. The reason Spider-Man, Iron Man and Batman have done so well overseas isn't so much their popularity, but rather their quality and scope. Name me another superhero movie with scope the size of those 3 and your point would be more valid, the only one is Transformers and we all know how well those have done. Daredevil? Ghost Rider? Fantastic 4? It's not that superhero movies aren't big outside the US, but rather small scale movies aren't big outside the US.

 

[jmc]

Alright, well then you have to be aware that the overseas market of 2002 and 2004 is not even close to what the overseas market of 2012 is.

Transformers 1 made ''only'' 380M overseas back in 2007. PotC 1 made ''only'' 350M back in 2003. Similar numbers to the first 2 Spidey films.

What PotC and HP and TF have in common with Spidey, and Avengers, is large scale spectacle.

Thor punching the Destroyer armor once and smacking Loki around for 90 seconds is not huge scale spectacle.

In countries like China and Russia and South Korea, the number of theaters playing American films has been growing at an absurd rate. I think it's been tripling every year for the past 3 years. And films with large scale spectacle, especially films with 3D large scale spectacle, have been HUGE OS. Like, mindbogglingly huge.

Saying it's like Iron Man 3 OS is accurate. It's like IM3, with HUGE HUGE action (something the first two didn't have), and in 3D (something the first two weren't). Look at the OS increases of franchises like Transformers and Pirates once they added 3D.

Out of curiosity what were the returns of superhero films in the last 3 years of those countries you've mentioned? You keep bringing up foreign theater explosion (which is a valid point) but what sort of money was made from the 5 or 6 superhero movies since 2009?

 

[flickchick85]

Out of curiosity what were the returns of superhero films in the last 3 years of those countries you've mentioned? You keep bringing up foreign theater explosion (which is a valid point) but what sort of money was made from the 5 or 6 superhero movies since 2009?

To be fair, the recent superhero movies themselves have all been smaller movies than earlier superhero flicks. They had smaller spectacles than Transformers or Pirates, so of course they did less business overseas - I'd say on average between $200m-$300m. I mean, with the exception of IM2 and the epic failure that is GL, they've all had smaller budgets than, say, the Spidey sequels or TDK. They've been essentially mini-blockbusters. Smaller movies tend to do smaller business.

The Avengers is not a smaller movie. It's the first superhero movie SINCE the Pirates and Transformers franchises took the international box office by storm that actually has the budget/spectacle on par with theirs. That said, I don't expect the Avengers to do quite as well internationally as those behemoths, because that kind of success is a rarity caused by a number of "lightning-in-a-bottle" type of factors, but I'm confident it will easily make more overseas than any superhero movie since TDK.


...until TDKR comes out.

 

[The Morningstar]

I'm pretty sure Iron Man is huge in Japan. They love their mech/armour suits stuff.

 

[Xeno]

Totally side-tracking this argument we're having, but I just noticed something very unusual in that gif that is in your avatar....and forgive me if I'm late to the party, but it's the first time I've noticed this about Cap: at the very end of the gif animation, it looks like Cap touches the back of his shield, and an orangey, fiery glow seems to start materializing around the shield. Have you got a blow-up of that.....???

Isn't that just Iron Man's boosters?

The glow is actually flames from a fire in the street behind the team in that shot.

 

[DyeLorean]

If Avengers gets high critical reception (like, let's say 95%-100% in RT), with strong word of mouth, I really think the movie could reach more than 1.0 billion. All the ingredients are there.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

If Avengers gets high critical reception (like, let's say 95%-100% in RT), with strong word of mouth, I really think the movie could reach more than 1.0 billion. All the ingredients are there.

If it gets 95-100% on RT than it's 100% going to gross at least 1.1 billion.

 

[Quasimod0]

How many positive reviews compared to negative ones does it need to score that high?

 

[DyeLorean]

How many positive reviews compared to negative ones does it need to score that high?

It all depends of the total reviews.

Toy Story 3 has 99%, with 250 fresh and 3 rotten
The Dark Knight has 94%, with 265 fresh and 18 rotten
Moneyball has 94%, with 205 fresh and 12 rotten.

My guess is over 200 fresh reviews, the movie should be around 90%.