The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[Chewy]

Other examples

Ice Age (2002): $1,630,932
Ice Age 2 (2006): $19,225,522
Ice Age 3 (2009, 3D): $44,572,301

Shrek (2001): $1,070,302
Shrek 2 (2004): $5,647,027
Shrek 3 (2007): $23,049,938
Shrek 4 (2010, 3D): $51,362,770

 

[jmc]

Perhaps it's not an anomaly as I thought but what I notice from those figures is that those other films were far more popular than any superhero beforehand judging from the box office. Thor is the biggest character there and his film was in 3D, so you know, maybe the ruskies don't have as big a taste for dudes in capes and masks, I dunno, make of it what you will.

 

[Chewy]

Perhaps it's not an anomaly as I thought but what I notice from those figures is that those other films were far more popular than any superhero beforehand judging from the box office. Thor is the biggest character there and his film was in 3D, so you know, maybe the ruskies don't have as big a taste for dudes in capes and masks, I dunno, make of it what you will.

Iron Man 2 numbers without 3D were very very similar to Transformers 2 numbers without 3D.

Thor was a completely unknown character and Hemsworth was a completely unknown actor. So the fact that it made 16M as a franchise launcher is kind of impressive

And keep in mind Russia is just one market.

 

[jmc]

Iron Man 2 numbers without 3D were very very similar to Transformers 2 numbers without 3D.

Thor was a completely unknown character and Hemsworth was a completely unknown actor. So the fact that it made 16M as a franchise launcher is kind of impressive

And keep in mind Russia is just one market.

But didn't you say that John Carter, a film that's being panned and with even fewer known actors, has gotten over 17M already? Yeah Russia is one market but I feel like you're banking on a similar situation happening for the film when the figures you've provided show less interest in the superhero genre than in other movies. Maybe they don't read comics over there lol.

 

[Chewy]

But didn't you say that John Carter, a film that's being panned and with even fewer known actors, has gotten over 17M already? Yeah Russia is one market but I feel like you're banking on a similar situation happening for the film when the figures you've provided show less interest in the superhero genre than in other movies. Maybe they don't read comics over there lol.

Yes, movies are getting bigger and bigger in Russia. As I said the theater count is growing exponentially. So movies in 2012 should have bigger numbers than in 2011.

Also most movies have awful legs in Russia. Most don't double their opening weekend.

And JC is tanking in every market other than Russia. It made 70M OW overseas, opening day and date everywhere but China. So with 17M from Russia, that means it made 53M in the other 50+ markets

 

[Chewy]

Here's the same franchises in Brazil

Iron Man (2008): $14,111,441
Iron Man 2 (2010): $15,835,025

Transformers (2007): $7,809,715
Transformers 2 (2009): $9,560,181
Transformers 3 (2011, 3D): $22,312,673

Curse of the Black Pearl (2003): (Not tracked)
Dead Man's Chest (2006): $10,847,794
At World's End (2007): $15,770,834
On Stranger Tides (2011, 3D): $30,396,681

Order of the Phoenix (2007): $17,525,883
Half Blood Prince (2009): $20,240,271
Deathly Hallows Pt 1 (2010): $23,910,192
Deathly Hallows Pt 2 (2011, 3D): $35,699,352

Ice Age (2002): $5,641,527
Ice Age 2 (2006): $19,909,620
Ice Age 3 (2009, 3D): $45,373,371

Shrek (2001): $4,565,267
Shrek 2 (2004): $9,457,271
Shrek 3 (2007): $18,627,950
Shrek 4 (2010, 3D): $40,037,374

 

[jmc]

You're nothing if not optimistic dude I'll give ya that.

 

[Chewy]

You're nothing if not optimistic dude I'll give ya that.

I don't think it's optimism, I'm just letting the numbers speak for themselves

 

[BigThor]

Well atleast he's being realistically optimistic, because you know what they say "numbers don't lie".

 

[PowerPacked]

Unless you're DoomsdayApex, in which case all numbers are useless unless they somehow point to TDKR.

 

[cherokeesam]

You're nothing if not optimistic dude I'll give ya that.

Optimistic about what? Those numbers are depressing me....at least in Russia and Brazil, it looks like the superhero genre is very "meh" at best. Doesn't bode well for Avengers' OS numbers, even with 3D inflation factored in.

 

[Chewy]

Optimistic about what? Those numbers are depressing me....at least in Russia and Brazil, it looks like the superhero genre is very "meh" at best. Doesn't bode well for Avengers' OS numbers, even with 3D inflation factored in.

Are you kidding? Either you don't understand the numbers you're looking at, you don't understand the point that's being made, or both. Especially in the case of the Brazil numbers

 

[cherokeesam]

Are you kidding? Either you don't understand the numbers you're looking at, you don't understand the point that's being made, or both. Especially in the case of the Brazil numbers

What, that inflation has run rampant in Russia and Brazil over the past decade? Yeah, I get that in the evening news.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Are you kidding? Either you don't understand the numbers you're looking at, you don't understand the point that's being made, or both. Especially in the case of the Brazil numbers

I agree with you. I'm brazilian, and these numbers are pretty good.

 

[MarvelKnight]

it will go over 1 billion domestic/worldwide combined.

 

[The Morningstar]

It will make...

One hundred... beeelllion dollars!

 

[marcvader]

Can't wait for this movie to come out already so we can put this debate to rest.

 

[The Morningstar]

Oh when it comes out it won't stop. There will be analysis from all sorts of arm chair experts. Ya feel?

If it makes a billion you'll have a bunch of "I told ya so's!" as well as negative nancies saying it wouldn't make a billion if it wasn't in 3D, or had competition and a whole host of other excuses.

If it doesn't make 600 million you'll have a bunch of apologists saying that 600 million is still ok. And you'd have a bunch of fanatical Nolanites going "hahahahaha!".

 

[BigThor]

Oh when it comes out it won't stop. There will be analysis from all sorts of arm chair experts. Ya feel?

If it makes a billion you'll have a bunch of "I told ya so's!" as well as negative nancies saying it wouldn't make a billion if it wasn't in 3D, or had competition and a whole host of other excuses.

Clearly, I hate when people try to down play a film success because it's in 3D or didn't have competition because at the end of the day a success is a success.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Given the budget (prod. and market.) and how good they think the movie is I wonder what minimum WW BO would MARVEL STUDIOS and DISNEY be happy with?

 

[Herolee10]

Given the budget (prod. and market.) and how good they think the movie is I wonder what minimum WW BO would MARVEL STUDIOS and DISNEY be happy with?

A billion.

Considering the hype and development that went into this film, I can't see them being happy with a700-800 million dollar box office intake.

If the budget is really 300 million, the film will have to at least gross 600 million alone.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Well if they paid over 200 m for production and another 75 m for marketing they probably hoping for 800 m since that would be a 100 m dollar profit from box office alone.

I think it has a good chance at 900 m.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

A billion.

Considering the hype and development that went into this film, I can't see them being happy with a700-800 million dollar box office intake.

If the budget is really 300 million, the film will have to at least gross 600 million alone.

300 m budget?

Where did that number come from?

 

[Herolee10]

300 m budget?

Where did that number come from?

Interviews where both Tom Hiddleston and Lou F. have been noted to say that the budget for the film was 300 million, and I doubt that they were talking about the marketing's budget for the film.

 

[Xeno]

Oh when it comes out it won't stop. There will be analysis from all sorts of arm chair experts. Ya feel?

If it makes a billion you'll have a bunch of "I told ya so's!" as well as negative nancies saying it wouldn't make a billion if it wasn't in 3D, or had competition and a whole host of other excuses.

If it doesn't make 600 million you'll have a bunch of apologists saying that 600 million is still ok. And you'd have a bunch of fanatical Nolanites going "hahahahaha!".

QFT.


Even if The Avengers sails past the billion-dollar mark, some of the naysayers will come back to ask why it didn't make more. Even if they were sure it wouldn't make a billion is the first place.