The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[YJ1]

Also:

I'm wondering if John Carter's MASSIVE bombage is going to affect the way Disney approaches marketing or even greenlighting future films in the sci-fi/fantasy/superhero genre.

For those of you not keeping up with those news, it's VERY grim for Disney right now. JC is now on record as the BIGGEST bomb of ALL TIME....Disney shocked the hell out of even the worst skeptics in just the past few hours by announcing that they're looking at a write-down of over 200 mil, which officially makes JC the worst flop ever.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/03/inv...from-disneys-john-carter-debacle/#more-246246

“investors will look forward to the summer franchise releases which include The Avengers and Pixar’s Brave"

That really is the saving grace for Disney. They will let Marvel be Marvel and basically do whatever they want. Even though it's Disney money, Marvel has their own spread sheet and their own responsibilities. Disney will NOT interfere especially since Marvel & Pixar are their only sure bets.

 

[kedrell]

Lionsgate upped their in-house estimates for THG's OW from 75 to 95 mil based on the pre-sales, and they're being conservative. The fanzealots estimate 125 mil.

I'm just not feeling it. It isn't giving off the Twilight "OMG, everywhere I turn I keep getting bombarded by it!" type of vibe. I think they're over-predicting.

 

[cherokeesam]

I'm just not feeling it. It isn't giving off the Twilight "OMG, everywhere I turn I keep getting bombarded by it!" type of vibe. I think they're over-predicting.

After the hype machine for John Carter failed (spectacularly) to deliver, I'm not entirely sure THG's will fare any better, either. But it remains to be seen. The main parallel I can draw between it and the first Twilight movie is that everyone completely underestimated the built-in audience of rabid fans who had devoured the book series. If you keep up with bestseller lists at all (yeah, I know print is a dead medium, yadda yadda), you see a similar thing happening with THG. A lot of the built-in audience can be inferenced from the fact that the book series has absolutely dominated the #1 spot on the bestseller list all through 2011 and 2012.

 

[Chewy]

I'm just not feeling it. It isn't giving off the Twilight "OMG, everywhere I turn I keep getting bombarded by it!" type of vibe. I think they're over-predicting.

Yeah, no. It's going to be gargantuan.

 

[Shadowlord X]

The success of THG following on from Twilight may significantly change the Hollywood landscape; studios will now look first to successful novels for their big hits.

I have to say I have watched the trailers for THG and I'm seeing absolutely nothing that's selling this movie to me.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Yeah, no. It's going to be gargantuan.

But will it be gargantuan outside of the readers of the books demographic?

That may be the point Kedrell is making.

There may be a huge opening because all the people who have read the books rush out to see it, but will it have legs? Legs will depend on how well it has been sold to other moviegoers.

 

[eddy]

I don't know. The hype alone has made me want to buy the book myself before I go see the movie. I think that movie is going to be huge. All my nieces want to see it. They're way more hyped for that than anything else this year.

 

[kedrell]

When it came to Twilight, even before any of the films were released I remember seeing multiple stories in the news on Yahoo and other places about all the lines at bookstores waiting for the release of the next book in the series(much like with Harry Potter) and how the fans were split into Team Edward or Team Jacob and all of that nonsense. I've read/heard/seen nothing comparable when it comes to THG.

And even the first Twilight film was unable to crack $70M OW and $200M domestic. I don't see THG besting Twilight1's initial outing.

 

[kedrell]

Now granted, I'm using media saturation spill-over as a measuring rod and that may end up as a faulty gage for this sort of thing but I really have little else to go by. I avoid stuff like THG, HP and Twilight like the plague so the more that is still able to penetrate my avoidance of the entire topic the more pervasive and large I'm apt to assume such a property is. And for my personal experience to date, THG is lagging far behind stuff like Twilight or HP.

 

[Chewy]

It's tracking huge, and not just two quadrant like Twilight. It's through the roof in all four quadrants

 

[kedrell]

I've learned to be skeptical when it comes to tracking.

 

[Chewy]

Usually I'm the same way but once you start talking about First Choice numbers in the 40s across the board it's impossible to ignore

 

[Shadowlord X]

I don't know. The hype alone has made me want to buy the book myself before I go see the movie. I think that movie is going to be huge. All my nieces want to see it. They're way more hyped for that than anything else this year.

Understandable. On the Fandango poll performed earlier this year THG was the movie women were most looking forward to.

A question. Is your interest due to the trailers inspiring you or is it from other people's hype?

 

[Shadowlord X]

All I care about is that THE AVENGERS trailer gets shown at these viewings and increases the awareness and hype for this movie.

 

[kedrell]

Usually I'm the same way but once you start talking about First Choice numbers in the 40s across the board it's impossible to ignore

You start talking about quadrants and first choice numbers and I end up with a .

I'm not a statistician. All I really got to go by is my gut and experience with prior films such as this. If THG does open huge as you're saying the tracking suggests then it'll have done so by being pretty well under the radar as opposed to stuff like HP and Twilight.

 

[Chewy]

It's huge and it's everywhere. I don't really know what you're talking about. But you seem set in your opinion, no point discussing it really since we'll know for sure in a few days.

 

[kedrell]

True enough.

 

[flickchick85]

I'm seeing Hunger Games EVERYWHERE. Every talk show, every entertainment news program, every magazine. It's pretty inescapable where I am. Add to that exposure the stellar reviews, and I think it's gonna draw a lot of people (like myself) who aren't familiar with the books.

 

[jmc]

But will it be gargantuan outside of the readers of the books demographic?

That may be the point Kedrell is making.

There may be a huge opening because all the people who have read the books rush out to see it, but will it have legs? Legs will depend on how well it has been sold to other moviegoers.

Given the reviews are nearly unanimous in their praise of the film I don't see why it wouldn't. Thing about that film is that unlike Twilight it's appeal is wider, more importantly it's got something that Twlight doesn't, a male audience to appeal to. I too was skeptical that the movie would be massive, but when you hear things like 'it's tracking like a sequel' then you know something big is gonna happen, and if WOM is good who knows where it goes.

 

[The Morningstar]

Yea that's the thing, Twilight has a very specific, if terrifyingly fanatical fanbase. THG i imagine appeals to a much broader audience. And you know, it actually being a decent movie helps.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Given the reviews are nearly unanimous in their praise of the film I don't see why it wouldn't. Thing about that film is that unlike Twilight it's appeal is wider, more importantly it's got something that Twlight doesn't, a male audience to appeal to. I too was skeptical that the movie would be massive, but when you hear things like 'it's tracking like a sequel' then you know something big is gonna happen, and if WOM is good who knows where it goes.

I'm really have no issue with how huge it's going to be. I am rather baffled by it however, because I've looked at the trailers multiple times and I cannot see anything looking spectacular or even interesting. In fact I'd go so far as to say sometimes it looks rather sci-fi-channel-ish. I guess it's just a mystery to me.

Any like I said earlier it will be good to have a big hit around now that draws people to the theatre. Hopefully more positive exposure for THE AVENGERS via the trailer.

 

[metaphysician]

I honestly don't care whether it does good or not, as its far enough ahead of Avengers not to effect the gross. *ahem*

 

[Green Day]

THG has lot of hype i could see a 140m OW.

 

[kedrell]

I'm through guessing about THG. I'll just wait to see what actually happens this weekend.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I saw Hunger Games yesterday and I can tell you that it's going to me the movie to beat this year. I doubt it will beat Twilight because of the final chapter and all, but it will come damn close to it. Truly a wonderful film that I would gladly pay to see (and I have't paid to see a movie in two years). It crosses so many demographics that I'm shocked Lionsgate were the ones to pick it up and not WB.

Also, regarding tracking, it's SO damn hard to track a film like this because it's the first in an unproven franchise. I don't predict a monster opening weekend but I see word of mouth spreading like wild fire across the globe.