The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[JB-the-Hunter]

I'm gonna guess how the weekends will break down domestically:

(This is assuming the movie is good and very well received by the GA)

Weekend#1: 150M for a number 1 finish

Weekend#2: 70M and still at #1. DS Takes #2 with $40M and TD at #3 with $30M

Weekend#3: $50M and still at #1. Battleship takes #2 with $45M and DS slips to #3 with $25M

Weekend#4: $35M and now at #2. MIB3 takes #1 with $70M. Battleship at #3 with $20M.

That would give it $305M just from the weekends in May alone. If this scenario played out it would actually be quite close to $400M already when you add in all the M-Th grosses between the weekends. And it still would also have another $50-$100M in the tank before closing for the rest of it's run.

I look at this as a best case scenario and I hope it's what happens. Domestic total: Anywhere from $450-$500M.

And assuming the movie is mindblowing and utterly loved by the audience?

 

[kedrell]

And assuming the movie is mindblowing and utterly loved by the audience?

Semantics. That's basically what I was getting at. If it's as well received as, say...the first Iron Man then I can see this scenario happening.

 

[Green Day]

I'd just like to remind everyone something about the "highest common denominator."

If we assumed that Avengers was going to have equal attendance to the first Iron Man in the United States, then we'd get $352 M domestic. With continued growth in International markets, especially in the case of legit big blockbusters/ event movies, we often see 70/30 International to Domestic blockbuster ratios.

Given comic book movies don't fair nearly that well, I'm going to conservatively say Avengers will pull a 60/40 ratio; That would put it at roughly $880 M worldwide. Given the X-Factor associated with the movie, I think it's entirely possible the film could shoot up from a billion.

If Avengers doesn't break 800 M ww, I will crush up a copy of the blu-ray and eat it on youtube. That's how confident I am in this films success.

None of the Marvel movies have had a 40/ 60 domestic/overseas ratio
$311,500,000 49.9% IM 2
$268,295,994 59% Thor
$191,953,858 52.1% CA
I do think it is possible for The Avengers to gross 60 percent of its total overseas but remember not one has done it yet. it could easily do 55 percent overseas.

 

[Moridin]

None of the Marvel movies have had a 40/ 60 domestic/overseas ratio

$268,295,994 59.7% Thor

A hairs breath away from 60%.

 

[cherokeesam]

A hairs breath away from 60%.

True, but Thor is the *only* one of the five prequels that fits that formula, and that's perfectly understandable given that Thor can be seen as an international movie, with an international cast and crew. The rest of Marvel Studios' films have been very much all-American, with none of them besides Thor getting more than 55% international ratio.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

True, but Thor is the *only* one of the five prequels that fits that formula, and that's perfectly understandable given that Thor can be seen as an international movie, with an international cast and crew. The rest of Marvel Studios' films have been very much all-American, with none of them besides Thor getting more than 55% international ratio.

But remember, this movie spans the globe as someone put it. Scenes take place in Germany (Where they're not the villains), India and Russia... possibly more.

 

[BigThor]

True. But Disney's powerful marketing engine works for younger kids and tweenies....I'm not sure that'll be the target audience for The Avengers. We'll see, though --- maybe they'll plaster the Disney channels/magazines/websites with Avengers hype in April to "plant the seed" in kiddies' minds and we'll see a massive surge in audiences from that.

The Avengers are superheroes first and foremost, and no one (besides us) loves superheroes more than kids and tweenies.

 

[cherokeesam]

But remember, this movie spans the globe as someone put it. Scenes take place in Germany (Where they're not the villains), India and Russia... possibly more.

How would that factor in....? The Avenger "prequels" were fairly international in scope, and globetrotted outside the US to Brazil, Germany, England, Norway, Afghanistan, Monaco, Russia, etc. Didn't translate into any increase in overseas box office.

When you average all five movies, you find that there's an almost perfect 50/50 split between domestic and international take....specifically, 49% domestic and 51% international. In order for that formula to translate to a billion-dollar WW gross for Avengers, you'd have to shoot for a $490 million domestic gross. Know how many movies have *ever* done that....? Three. (Avatar, Titanic, and TDK.)

 

[Neo_3]

How would that factor in....? The Avenger "prequels" were fairly international in scope, and globetrotted outside the US to Brazil, Germany, England, Norway, Afghanistan, Monaco, Russia, etc. Didn't translate into any increase in overseas box office.

When you average all five movies, you find that there's an almost perfect 50/50 split between domestic and international take....specifically, 49% domestic and 51% international. In order for that formula to translate to a billion-dollar WW gross for Avengers, you'd have to shoot for a $490 million domestic gross. Know how many movies have *ever* done that....? Three. (Avatar, Titanic, and TDK.)

Done what, make 1B WW?

 

[kedrell]

Done what, make 1B WW?

No, make $490M domestic.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Done what, make 1B WW?

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

 

[BigThor]

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

Wow, Spider-Man's domestic numbers aren't that much higher than Iron Man's.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Wow, Spider-Man's domestic numbers aren't that much higher than Iron Man's.

Not by much at all really, only the first installment reached 400 million.

 

[Chewy]

How would that factor in....? The Avenger "prequels" were fairly international in scope, and globetrotted outside the US to Brazil, Germany, England, Norway, Afghanistan, Monaco, Russia, etc. Didn't translate into any increase in overseas box office.

When you average all five movies, you find that there's an almost perfect 50/50 split between domestic and international take....specifically, 49% domestic and 51% international. In order for that formula to translate to a billion-dollar WW gross for Avengers, you'd have to shoot for a $490 million domestic gross. Know how many movies have *ever* done that....? Three. (Avatar, Titanic, and TDK.)

Well then it's a good thing that "formula" is nonsense, and has nothing to do with how Avengers will actually perform

 

[Chewy]

1) TIH bombed and was hardly marketed outside of the US. It has no relevance in this conversation. "Averaging" it with the others shows an ignorance or a bias, not sure which in this case

2) Captain America was released on a scattered schedule to avoid competing on opening with Harry Potter and Transformers on their OW in foreign territories. All this on top of starring a character that was inherently a tough sell outside the US

3) Thor was released the week after a massive international hit in Fast Five came out, and still did very well for itself with an unknown star based around an unknown hero. This film had a 40/60 split

4) The leap from IM's foreign take ($266,762,121 / 45.6%) to IM2's foreign take ($311,500,000 / 49.9%) was analogous in real dollar terms to the increase from Transformers' foreign take ($390,463,587 / 55%) to TF2's foreign take ($434,191,823 / 51.9%). Note that none of these films were in 3D

5) Overseas audiences eat up 3D. Notice the international bump in other franchises which added 3D (ie TF3 grossed $771,356,453 internationally, despite decreasing domestically; Pirates 4 grossed $802,800,000 internationally, vs the $654,000,000 Pirates 3 grossed internationally)

6) This film will have something none of the Avengers solo films really had - spectacle. International audiences love love love their spectacle.

Given all of this, I can't see how someone can rationally defend using the previous films as examples or indicators of how the Avengers will perform internationally

 

[BigThor]

1) TIH bombed and was hardly marketed outside of the US. It has no relevance in this conversation. "Averaging" it with the others shows an ignorance or a bias, not sure which in this case

2) Captain America was released on a scattered schedule to avoid competing on opening with Harry Potter and Transformers on their OW in foreign territories. All this on top of starring a character that was inherently a tough sell outside the US

3) Thor was released the week after a massive international hit in Fast Five came out, and still did very well for itself with an unknown star based around an unknown hero. This film had a 40/60 split

4) The leap from IM's foreign take ($266,762,121 / 45.6%) to IM2's foreign take ($311,500,000 / 49.9%) was analogous in real dollar terms to the increase from Transformers' foreign take ($390,463,587 / 55%) to TF2's foreign take ($434,191,823 / 51.9%). Note that none of these films were in 3D

5) Overseas audiences eat up 3D. Notice the international bump in other franchises which added 3D (ie TF3 grossed $771,356,453 internationally, despite decreasing domestically; Pirates 4 grossed $802,800,000 internationally, vs the $654,000,000 Pirates 3 grossed internationally)

6) This film will have something none of the Avengers solo films really had - spectacle. International audiences love love love their spectacle.

Given all of this, I can't see how someone can rationally defend using the previous films as examples or indicators of how the Avengers will perform internationally

This is right on the money Chewy.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

The point is Captain America, The Incredible Hulk and Thor were moderate successes. There's nothing to indicate that The Avengers would make more than 800 million worldwide (other than Iron Man's numbers).

Beyond this point, it's a crapshoot. The Avengers could finish with 900 million at the box office or 670 million, for that matter. Nothing is guaranteed here.

 

[Chewy]

Beyond this point, it's a crapshoot. The Avengers could finish with 900 million at the box office or 670 million, for that matter. Nothing is guaranteed here.

Well, yeah. You can say that about any movie. That's where quality and hype comes in.

I was just replying to the constant comparisons to the solo films' international takes, as though they formed some "rule" that this film would automatically abide by.

 

[BigThor]

The point is Captain America, The Incredible Hulk and Thor were moderate successes. There's nothing to indicate that The Avengers would make more than 800 million worldwide (other than Iron Man's numbers).

Beyond this point, it's a crapshoot. The Avengers could finish with 900 million at the box office or 670 million, for that matter. Nothing is guaranteed here.

THOR made about 450 million, I think that places the film above a "moderate success" and CA:TFA's huge dvd sales places it above a moderate success as well.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Yeah sorry but a WW BO gross of $450 million is not a moderate success; it's a genuine blockbuster.

CA:TFA was a moderate success at the BO at exactly the same level as BB and XMO:W, which is very acceptable for a first time franchise of a B/C-lister character in the GA's eyes/minds.

I'm gonna say $850 million total WW box-office but A LOT depends on the quality of the film at this point. The awareness and hype are at high levels but they do need the Superbowl spot and an excellent final theatrical trailer to really push them up even higher.

 

[BigThor]

^^^ Agreed

 

[KangConquers]

1) TIH bombed and was hardly marketed outside of the US. It has no relevance in this conversation. "Averaging" it with the others shows an ignorance or a bias, not sure which in this case

2) Captain America was released on a scattered schedule to avoid competing on opening with Harry Potter and Transformers on their OW in foreign territories. All this on top of starring a character that was inherently a tough sell outside the US

3) Thor was released the week after a massive international hit in Fast Five came out, and still did very well for itself with an unknown star based around an unknown hero. This film had a 40/60 split

4) The leap from IM's foreign take ($266,762,121 / 45.6%) to IM2's foreign take ($311,500,000 / 49.9%) was analogous in real dollar terms to the increase from Transformers' foreign take ($390,463,587 / 55%) to TF2's foreign take ($434,191,823 / 51.9%). Note that none of these films were in 3D

5) Overseas audiences eat up 3D. Notice the international bump in other franchises which added 3D (ie TF3 grossed $771,356,453 internationally, despite decreasing domestically; Pirates 4 grossed $802,800,000 internationally, vs the $654,000,000 Pirates 3 grossed internationally)

6) This film will have something none of the Avengers solo films really had - spectacle. International audiences love love love their spectacle.

Given all of this, I can't see how someone can rationally defend using the previous films as examples or indicators of how the Avengers will perform internationally

This. Avengers is one of the 2 legitimate "Event" movies of this Summer, and will probably do huge money for that reason alone. If Avengers does $670 Million or whatever, then the film industry is in trouble, not just Marvel.

 

[Khemik@L]

1) TIH bombed and was hardly marketed outside of the US. It has no relevance in this conversation. "Averaging" it with the others shows an ignorance or a bias, not sure which in this case

2) Captain America was released on a scattered schedule to avoid competing on opening with Harry Potter and Transformers on their OW in foreign territories. All this on top of starring a character that was inherently a tough sell outside the US

3) Thor was released the week after a massive international hit in Fast Five came out, and still did very well for itself with an unknown star based around an unknown hero. This film had a 40/60 split

4) The leap from IM's foreign take ($266,762,121 / 45.6%) to IM2's foreign take ($311,500,000 / 49.9%) was analogous in real dollar terms to the increase from Transformers' foreign take ($390,463,587 / 55%) to TF2's foreign take ($434,191,823 / 51.9%). Note that none of these films were in 3D

5) Overseas audiences eat up 3D. Notice the international bump in other franchises which added 3D (ie TF3 grossed $771,356,453 internationally, despite decreasing domestically; Pirates 4 grossed $802,800,000 internationally, vs the $654,000,000 Pirates 3 grossed internationally)

6) This film will have something none of the Avengers solo films really had - spectacle. International audiences love love love their spectacle.

Given all of this, I can't see how someone can rationally defend using the previous films as examples or indicators of how the Avengers will perform internationally

I'm International and I approved Number 6 t: Why you think Transformers do so well?

 

[cherokeesam]

1) TIH bombed and was hardly marketed outside of the US. It has no relevance in this conversation. "Averaging" it with the others shows an ignorance or a bias, not sure which in this case

2) Captain America was released on a scattered schedule to avoid competing on opening with Harry Potter and Transformers on their OW in foreign territories. All this on top of starring a character that was inherently a tough sell outside the US

3) Thor was released the week after a massive international hit in Fast Five came out, and still did very well for itself with an unknown star based around an unknown hero. This film had a 40/60 split

4) The leap from IM's foreign take ($266,762,121 / 45.6%) to IM2's foreign take ($311,500,000 / 49.9%) was analogous in real dollar terms to the increase from Transformers' foreign take ($390,463,587 / 55%) to TF2's foreign take ($434,191,823 / 51.9%). Note that none of these films were in 3D

5) Overseas audiences eat up 3D. Notice the international bump in other franchises which added 3D (ie TF3 grossed $771,356,453 internationally, despite decreasing domestically; Pirates 4 grossed $802,800,000 internationally, vs the $654,000,000 Pirates 3 grossed internationally)

6) This film will have something none of the Avengers solo films really had - spectacle. International audiences love love love their spectacle.

Given all of this, I can't see how someone can rationally defend using the previous films as examples or indicators of how the Avengers will perform internationally

"How someone can RATIONALLY defend using the previous films...." Nice cheap shot, Chewy...let's just call someone you disagree with "IRRATIONAL" and it suddenly lends more weight and credibility to YOUR argument, right...?

Since you weren't keeping up with the discussion: *I'm* not the one who was using the past to predict the future....JB the Hunter was. He claimed that there was a 40-60 domestic/international split on Marvel movies to justify his signature claim that Avengers will make a billion worldwide; I was merely crunching the numbers to prove that the split is actually 49/51, requiring Avengers to make $490 million domestic to fit into his formula. (You calling him "irrational," too, since he came up with the formula....?)

Me, on the other hand....I'm inclined to agree with DoomsdayApex, that the whole thing is a crapshoot. If we judge Avengers by the quality/box office of its prequels (and why *wouldn't* we include TIH, incidentally? It *is* one of the five prequels....just because it's the lowest common denominator of the franchise doesn't mean you can just sweep it under the rug and pretend it doesn't count in discussions about Marvel Studios), then it's hard to get overly optimistic and buy into these billion-dollar wish-fantasies. And if we *don't* judge Avengers by past performance, then you might as well just roll the dice and say anything can happen.

I'm sticking by my $750 million-ish. If that's "low-balling" it, then so be it --- I'll be happy as a clam to be proven wrong and watch this movie break the billion-dollar mark. Trust me, you'll never find anyone more happy to be proven wrong. But I just wonder what kind of soul-searching you guys would be doing if you predicted a billion dollar gross and the movie generates significantly less...are you guys going to get depressed? Make excuses? Drop back and punt? Or what?

Makes far more sense to be a pessimist and be proven wrong than be an optimist and be proven wrong.

 

[Chewy]

"How someone can RATIONALLY defend using the previous films...." Nice cheap shot, Chewy...let's just call someone you disagree with "IRRATIONAL" and it suddenly lends more weight and credibility to YOUR argument, right...?

Since you weren't keeping up with the discussion: *I'm* not the one who was using the past to predict the future....JB the Hunter was. He claimed that there was a 40-60 domestic/international split on Marvel movies to justify his signature claim that Avengers will make a billion worldwide; I was merely crunching the numbers to prove that the split is actually 49/51, requiring Avengers to make $490 million domestic to fit into his formula. (You calling him "irrational," too, since he came up with the formula....?)

Me, on the other hand....I'm inclined to agree with DoomsdayApex, that the whole thing is a crapshoot. If we judge Avengers by the quality/box office of its prequels (and why *wouldn't* we include TIH, incidentally? It *is* one of the five prequels....just because it's the lowest common denominator of the franchise doesn't mean you can just sweep it under the rug and pretend it doesn't count in discussions about Marvel Studios), then it's hard to get overly optimistic and buy into these billion-dollar wish-fantasies. And if we *don't* judge Avengers by past performance, then you might as well just roll the dice and say anything can happen.

I'm sticking by my $750 million-ish. If that's "low-balling" it, then so be it --- I'll be happy as a clam to be proven wrong and watch this movie break the billion-dollar mark. Trust me, you'll never find anyone more happy to be proven wrong. But I just wonder what kind of soul-searching you guys would be doing if you predicted a billion dollar gross and the movie generates significantly less...are you guys going to get depressed? Make excuses? Drop back and punt? Or what?

Makes far more sense to be a pessimist and be proven wrong than be an optimist and be proven wrong.

Not a cheap shot, don't be so defensive. Apologies if you took the comment to heart. Movies aren't released in a vacuum; without analyzing competition, studio marketing, and trends, box office numbers are fairly useless. Averaging five movies to predict another's gross is not something I believe to be a defensible tact, that's all I was saying

Unless you're talking about a previous thread, I don't see where JB the Hunter said anything about 60/40. I see where Kang said he would use to estimate the movie's numbers, but that had nothing to do with the previous films

We wouldn't include TIH's international numbers because Universal gave it a relatively limited release and very very little marketing push in foreign countries, compared to what Paramount did for the other four. It's not an apples to apples comparison

If Avengers fails to live up to my prediction I'll be disappointed momentarily and move on with my life. I'd imagine it would have to not be the film I think we're getting quality-wise, but that's a different issue

Pessimism is no fun, I'd rather be eternally wrong but hopeful