The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[kedrell]

Open range May is one of the key facets that's making me believe this will perform beyond what these types of movies normally make. That's a variable that is unique here.

 

[cherokeesam]

Open range May is one of the key facets that's making me believe this will perform beyond what these types of movies normally make. That's a variable that is unique here.

I don't see May being a cakewalk. A lot of you have already awarded Week 2 to Avengers over Dark Shadows, and I think that's being very optimistic. True, there hasn't been a ton of buzz about DS yet, but there wasn't a ton of buzz about Alice in Wonderland, either, and it skyrocketed to record box office numbers solely on the strength of Burton and Depp's names. Look for DS to do the same. And in the coming weeks, Battleship and MIBIII are dice rolls --- they'll either be megahits or colossal flops; I don't see any safe in-between zone for either of those two movies.

 

[Moridin]

This. Avengers is one of the 2 legitimate "Event" movies of this Summer, and will probably do huge money for that reason alone. If Avengers does $670 Million or whatever, then the film industry is in trouble, not just Marvel.

Exactly. Going into 2011 the event films were Harry Potter, Pirates, Transformers.
Thor, Cap & GL were B or C listers on their first outing. Even XMFC had none of the popular characters & had an entirely new cast.

This year the event films are The Hobbit, TDKR & The Avengers.

Avengers has none of those billion-dollar ingredients: star power, in both cast *and* crew; young kids as the target audience; an iconic villain.

Avengers has no star power?

I think the main thing that all the billion dollar movies have in common, & it's not anything you mentioned though someone else here did; Spectacle/stunning visuals. Other factors can come into play too, but that's the main one

Superheroes teaming up to fight off an alien invasion has massive potential for showcasing epic visuals/fights/destruction.

I don't see May being a cakewalk. A lot of you have already awarded Week 2 to Avengers over Dark Shadows, and I think that's being very optimistic. True, there hasn't been a ton of buzz about DS yet, but there wasn't a ton of buzz about Alice in Wonderland, either, and it skyrocketed to record box office numbers solely on the strength of Burton and Depp's names. Look for DS to do the same.

You're putting way too much stock in the Burton/Depp pairing. Sweeney Todd ($152m WW), Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($474m WW) & Corpse Bride ($117m WW), all Burton/Depp projects, post Pirates when Depp is at his most famous - none lit up the BO.

Alice is an influential & hugely popular story, & has been for over 100 years. Giving it the big budget treatment & being one of the first 3D films after Avatar is what got it across $1bn. Depp had a little to do with it, Burton is not a BO draw.

I don't expect Dark Shadows to be anything more than moderately successful.

 

[kedrell]

I don't see May being a cakewalk. A lot of you have already awarded Week 2 to Avengers over Dark Shadows, and I think that's being very optimistic. True, there hasn't been a ton of buzz about DS yet, but there wasn't a ton of buzz about Alice in Wonderland, either, and it skyrocketed to record box office numbers solely on the strength of Burton and Depp's names. Look for DS to do the same. And in the coming weeks, Battleship and MIBIII are dice rolls --- they'll either be megahits or colossal flops; I don't see any safe in-between zone for either of those two movies.

IMO, you're wrong on this one. Sure, Burton + Depp + 3-D(and a quite large marketing push) helped out but the real selling point was Disney+Alice In Wonderland(been an iconic pairing for 50 years). It already had a big fanbase before deciding who the director & stars would be.

DS has none of that going for it. While DS the property undoubtedly does have it's fans, they aren't all that many relatively speaking. Not to mention that it's pretty much one of the biggest blunders you can make by releasing a horror movie in May. When was the last one that did well? I can't think of a single one. May has to be the worst month for horror films.

 

[warhorse78]

Avengers has no star power?

I think the main thing that all the billion dollar movies have in common, & it's not anything you mentioned though someone else here did; Spectacle/stunning visuals. Other factors can come into play too, but that's the main one

Superheroes teaming up to fight off an alien invasion has massive potential for showcasing epic visuals/fights/destruction.

Yeah, it comes down to spectacle and something new on the table. If star power was the case, then the Johnny Depp/Christian Bale cop thriller Public Enemies would have been a billion dollar movie, but it's not. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are arguably some of the most famous stars, but I haven't seen either of them throw a billion dollar movie on their name alone. And I agree that Alice in Wonderland became a big hit because it was riding on the success of Avatar's 3D spectacle.

 

[Green Day]

IMO, you're wrong on this one. Sure, Burton + Depp + 3-D(and a quite large marketing push) helped out but the real selling point was Disney+Alice In Wonderland(been an iconic pairing for 50 years). It already had a big fanbase before deciding who the director & stars would be.

DS has none of that going for it. While DS the property undoubtedly does have it's fans, they aren't all that many relatively speaking. Not to mention that it's pretty much one of the biggest blunders you can make by releasing a horror movie in May. When was the last one that did well? I can't think of a single one. May has to be the worst month for horror films.

DS is not suppose to be a scary jump out seat horror film. From what I understand it is a dark thriller. It will most likely be R. I think dark shadows could take some of the older audience away.

 

[Blue Hero]

If you take all the elements of awesome, and divide it by human error, and multiply that by epic, you will get The Avengers' total box office take.

This is truth.

 

[kedrell]

DS is not suppose to be a scary jump out seat horror film. From what I understand it is a dark thriller. It will most likely be R. I think dark shadows could take some of the older audience away.

I understand that and I think that will actually make things worse for it in the early summer. People want action/adventure/comedy in the summer. I think DS would have done better to have been a late fall release.

 

[Shadowlord X]

If you take all the elements of awesome, and divide it by human error, and multiply that by epic, you will get The Avengers' total box office take.

This is truth.

LOL! You are most welcome here.

 

[Chewy]

Avengers has no star power?

I think the main thing that all the billion dollar movies have in common, & it's not anything you mentioned though someone else here did; Spectacle/stunning visuals. Other factors can come into play too, but that's the main one

Superheroes teaming up to fight off an alien invasion has massive potential for showcasing epic visuals/fights/destruction.

I mentioned it. It's not the difference between a movie making 300M and 400M in the 'Mericas so people often forget about it as a factor but it makes a huge difference in terms of foreign gross.

 

[Chewy]

Open range May is one of the key facets that's making me believe this will perform beyond what these types of movies normally make. That's a variable that is unique here.

Exactly

Dark Shadows- R-rated, niche, will do well for itself but people shouldn't kid themselves, this is counter-programming not direct competition
Battleship - Bombs away
Men in Black III - Questions about quality aside, it's three weeks later and is a brand that hasn't been popular in a while. Might do well but won't be too huge, and as already stated it's three weeks later

 

[cherokeesam]

I mentioned it. It's not the difference between a movie making 300M and 400M in the 'Mericas so people often forget about it as a factor but it makes a huge difference in terms of foreign gross.

CGI does not always equal spectacle. About the only time that actually applies in terms of CGI is when the graphics show us someplace we've never seen before, like a faraway planet or a fantastical realm. Just watching a bunch of laser beams 'n' 'splosions isn't particularly spectacular --- it's yesterday's news. The alien invasion bit was pretty jaw-dropping when we first saw it in all its CG glory in ID4 way back in the 90s; but now that we've seen it time and again ad nauseam (War of the Worlds, Falling Skies, V, Battle Los Angeles, District 9, Super 8, The Day the Earth Stood Still, etc etc. --- and let's not forget Battleship and MIBIII hot on the Avengers' heels....), the "spectacle" is already long gone.

Maybe if they showed us the Skrull homeworld, or the Negative Zone, or Niflhel, or the Blue Area of the Moon, or a Kree war fleet descending into earthspace, or the underwater realms of Atlantis or Lemuria....*then* you could talk about spectacle. Blowing up NYC....****, that happens every day on TV.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

CGI does not always equal spectacle. About the only time that actually applies in terms of CGI is when the graphics show us someplace we've never seen before, like a faraway planet or a fantastical realm. Just watching a bunch of laser beams 'n' 'splosions isn't particularly spectacular --- it's yesterday's news. The alien invasion bit was pretty jaw-dropping when we first saw it in all its CG glory in ID4 way back in the 90s; but now that we've seen it time and again ad nauseam (War of the Worlds, Falling Skies, V, Battle Los Angeles, District 9, Super 8, The Day the Earth Stood Still, etc etc. --- and let's not forget Battleship and MIBIII hot on the Avengers' heels....), the "spectacle" is already long gone.

Maybe if they showed us the Skrull homeworld, or the Negative Zone, or Niflhel, or the Blue Area of the Moon, or a Kree war fleet descending into earthspace, or the underwater realms of Atlantis or Lemuria....*then* you could talk about spectacle. Blowing up NYC....****, that happens every day on TV.

Who said anything about CGI? The spectacle comes from Captain America/Iron Man/Hulk/Thor/Hawkeye/Black Widow/SHIELD/US Army/NYPD AGAINST Loki AND an invasion force shrouded in mystery PLUS, as you say, "a bunch of laser beams 'n' 'splosions" are you honestly trying to convince people this is not spectacle? If so, you're the only one who thinks so.

 

[cherokeesam]

Who said anything about CGI? The spectacle comes from Captain America/Iron Man/Hulk/Thor/Hawkeye/Black Widow/SHIELD/US Army/NYPD AGAINST Loki AND an invasion force shrouded in mystery PLUS, as you say, "a bunch of laser beams 'n' 'splosions" are you honestly trying to convince people this is not spectacle? If so, you're the only one who thinks so.

That clip we saw of Loki and the alien atomic steeds/ jetbikes/ skycycles/ techno-chariots or whatever shooting pew-pew laser beams at the army and cops on the street and blowing **** up? No, that ain't spectacle. It's the same stuff we've seen again and again in all those movies I listed above, plus a ton of Syfy Channel TV shows/made-for-TV movies too numerous to name (or even dignify with a mention).

*Is* there spectacle in Avengers? I'm sure there is. Hell, if ILM is behind it, there's bound to be spectacle. And maybe 24 hours from now, we'll have ample evidence of it. But so far, the trailers haven't shown anything more spectacular than your average sci-fi/ action/ and/or superhero show on any given cable TV channel.

 

[Chewy]

That clip we saw of Loki and the alien atomic steeds/ jetbikes/ skycycles/ techno-chariots or whatever shooting pew-pew laser beams at the army and cops on the street and blowing **** up? No, that ain't spectacle. It's the same stuff we've seen again and again in all those movies I listed above, plus a ton of Syfy Channel TV shows/made-for-TV movies too numerous to name (or even dignify with a mention).

*Is* there spectacle in Avengers? I'm sure there is. Hell, if ILM is behind it, there's bound to be spectacle. And maybe 24 hours from now, we'll have ample evidence of it. But so far, the trailers haven't shown anything more spectacular than your average sci-fi/ action/ and/or superhero show on any given cable TV channel.

There's been one trailer. It was released when the movie had barely enter post-production. We've seen 2 seconds of the action. We know there's spectacle coming, just sit back and wait. Have a beer

 

[cherokeesam]

There's been one trailer. It was released when the movie had barely enter post-production. We've seen 2 seconds of the action. We know there's spectacle coming, just sit back and wait. Have a beer

I'll have quite a few tomorrow night.

 

[BigThor]

*Is* there spectacle in Avengers? I'm sure there is. Hell, if ILM is behind it, there's bound to be spectacle. And maybe 24 hours from now, we'll have ample evidence of it. But so far, the trailers haven't shown anything more spectacular than your average sci-fi/ action/ and/or superhero show on any given cable TV channel.

True, the first trailer didn't really show anything spectacular although that wasn't really it's purpose anyways.

There's been one trailer. It was released when the movie had barely enter post-production. We've seen 2 seconds of the action. We know there's spectacle coming, just sit back and wait. Have a beer

Very true as well

 

[Liam_H]

One billion dollars for The Avengers wouldn't mean *just* that this movie "wins" the box office battle for 2012; it would totally change the way the game is played. This would be cinematic history.

Even if it hits $1 Billion WW. I still believe The Hobbit will take the 2012 crown.

 

[demitri_vampiro]

if avengers does 1bn, hopefully disney will smell the money that can be made of team superhero movies. fox will undoubtedly screw up x-men again and maybe disney can buy x-men back and marvel can make a proper x-movie.
same goes for other marvel properties like ff4.
its a dream, but sometimes they come true.

 

[kedrell]

Even if it hits $1 Billion WW. I still believe The Hobbit will take the 2012 crown.

Agreed. I don't think The Avengers nor TDKR have a chance in hell of beating The Hobbit for 2012's WW crown. They'll just have to fight it out for the summer crown and #2 for the year.

 

[Chewy]

And there's your spectacle

 

[BigThor]

^ In full force, yeah there's no doubt in my mind that The Avengers is going to reach a billion dollars.

 

[Quasimod0]

After that trailer, wow. Take my money. lol. This is gonna make a billion dollars

 

[KangConquers]

Here's the thing to all of you who are saying a Billion dollars is impossible; A billion dollars happened three times last year, and twice the year before; on top of those 5 $1 Billion dollar movies, 2 additional movies hit the near Billion Dollar range ($800 M+.)

There's nothing "historical" about hitting $1 Billion dollars anymore. It just means you were a top 3 movie of the year, these days.


My predicted top 5 for 2012 is:

1. The Hobbit- $1.25 Billion
2. The Dark Knight Rises- $1.1 Billion
3. Marvel's The Avengers- $950 Million
4. Twilight Saga- Breaking Dawn Part 2- $775 M
5. The Amazing Spider-Man- $650 Million

 

[Quasimod0]

I see you accidentally put the avengers in the number 3 spot. Its ok, we all make mistakes.