The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[cherokeesam]

Okay, yeah, it was KangConquers who came up with the 30/70 and/or 40/60 formula....my apologies, JB the Hunter.

And pessimism *is* fun....it gives you the opportunity to be pleasantly surprised from time to time, as opposed to having everything always just meet or fail to meet your expectations.

 

[Neo_3]

420M DOM and 925M WW.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

That's exactly how I anticipate for my movies cherokeesam.

It's abstract and enigmatic to predict how much The Avengers will make domestically and internationally. No Marvel film (Spiderman/Sony and X-Men/Fox) has rivaled Iron Man's numbers yet -- Thor being the closest with 450 million, which didn't shock me because people love their Mythology and Gods. It's the reason why I believe a Wonder Woman adaptation would make decent dough (more so than Green Lantern and Captain America), contrary to popular belief at WB.

For me, I see The Avengers cashing in around 750-790 million (making it Marvel Studios' highest grossing film ever). That's a mega-success. If the movie makes 800-999 million, I'll call it a colossal-success. And if it makes a billion, it'll be an epic-success. Anything after 1.1 billion, and that's legendary.

 

[marcvader]

What if it makes between $791 and $799?

 

[HULKFish]

Just imagine the sequel if this movie does upward of say 600 mil.!!!

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Just imagine the sequel if this movie does upward of say 600 mil.!!!

That got me thinking. If The Avengers does end up grossing 1 billion, than as long as they keep the quality and raise the stakes, we'll have the first billion dollar trilogy on our hands.

 

[kedrell]

Well, if it does nothing else I hope it beats SM3's WW total so it becomes Marvel's highest grossing movie(unadjusted).

 

[KangConquers]

If it doesn't do at least $800 M, there won't be a sequel. So you'd better all keep your fingers crossed.

 

[T"Challa]

Yeah if that $300 mill budget figure that Hiddleston was floating around is true..this movie needs to make at least 750 to be considered to true success

 

[kedrell]

I'd say more like at least $700M WW but it'll have to be pretty big either way.

 

[BigThor]

If this film rakes in over 1 billion dollars just think about how epic Iron Man 3, Thor II, Cap 2, Avengers 2 and the rest of Marvel Studios's "Phase Two" movies are going to be.

 

[marcvader]

If this film rakes in over 1 billion dollars just think about how epic Iron Man 3, Thor II, Cap 2, Avengers 2 and the rest of Marvel Studios's "Phase Two" movies are going to be.

Yeah, I hope it gives them the confidence to really dig deep into their catalog of characters.

 

[BigThor]

Yeah, I hope it gives them the confidence to really dig deep into their catalog of characters.

Indeed, it also would give them confidence to greatly expand the scope on all of their films even the "solo films".

 

[Spider-Vader]

Yeah, I hope it gives them the confidence to really dig deep into their catalog of characters.

I wouldn't dig TOO deep. I don't think anyone wants a Werewolf by Night movie or something.

But yeah, Marvel seems to be wanting to dig deep enough. Dr. Strange, Black Panther, Luke Cage, Iron Fist, SHIELD & Guardians of the Galaxy are in the pipeline, if I'm correct. Throw in Moon Knight, Namor, Nova & a solo female hero movie (Ms. Marvel? She-Hulk?) & I think the MCU will be pretty diverse.

 

[KangConquers]

I wouldn't dig TOO deep. I don't think anyone wants a Werewolf by Night movie or something.

But yeah, Marvel seems to be wanting to dig deep enough. Dr. Strange, Black Panther, Luke Cage, Iron Fist, SHIELD & Guardians of the Galaxy are in the pipeline, if I'm correct. Throw in Moon Knight, Namor, Nova & a solo female hero movie (Ms. Marvel? She-Hulk?) & I think the MCU will be pretty diverse.

I think as long as a character isn't too derivative, they're worth exploring on the big screen.

It's all about execution; you could have one of the greatest characters from the comic medium, or greatest stories, and if it's not done with passion and intelligence, it'll still suck. You can also take a C-list character and turn it into something special.

After Blade, I wouldn't count any Marvel character out as being "too obscure". Any character can be big, they just have to strike the right chord with the audience.

 

[cherokeesam]

If this film rakes in over 1 billion dollars just think about how epic Iron Man 3, Thor II, Cap 2, Avengers 2 and the rest of Marvel Studios's "Phase Two" movies are going to be.

If this film rakes in $1 billion, Marvel and everyone attached to this movie can do whatever the **** they want from now on.

One billion dollars is rarefied air. There are only ten movies ever that broke that milestone. Joss Whedon would go from being "that Buffy guy" to being known as a world-class director whose name is mentioned in the same breath as James Cameron, Peter Jackson, Chris Nolan, Tim Burton, Gore Verbinski, Michael Bay and, er, David Yates. Chris Hemsworth and Chris Evans would become household names. RDJ, Renner, Samjack and Scarjo would pad their resumes with even more star power. Marvel Studios would become almost as powerful as Fox, Warners, Dreamworks, and Disney.

One billion dollars for The Avengers wouldn't mean *just* that this movie "wins" the box office battle for 2012; it would totally change the way the game is played. This would be cinematic history.

Hope it happens. Doubt it will.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

If this film rakes in $1 billion, Marvel and everyone attached to this movie can do whatever the **** they want from now on.

One billion dollars is rarefied air. There are only ten movies ever that broke that milestone. Joss Whedon would go from being "that Buffy guy" to being known as a world-class director whose name is mentioned in the same breath as James Cameron, Peter Jackson, Chris Nolan, Tim Burton, Gore Verbinski, Michael Bay and, er, David Yates. Chris Hemsworth and Chris Evans would become household names. RDJ, Renner, Samjack and Scarjo would pad their resumes with even more star power. Marvel Studios would become almost as powerful as Fox, Warners, Dreamworks, and Disney.

One billion dollars for The Avengers wouldn't mean *just* that this movie "wins" the box office battle for 2012; it would totally change the way the game is played. This would be cinematic history.

Hope it happens. Doubt it will.

Is Sam Worthington a household name?

 

[TheVileOne]

Meh I'd say no. He can't open a movie on his own really. Look at Man on A Ledge.

A billion dollars for this one? Not so sure. Iron Man needed to movies to become a billion dollar franchise. Cap and Thor combined made I think grossed about $820 million. I would predict a max of about $750 million for this one. But hey, could be wrong.

 

[itchyscratch]

Is Sam Worthington a household name?

Who?

 

[Smashlilman]

I don't care how much this film makes as long as I'm happy and full of endorphins when I leave the theater.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

You should care...A sequel is riding on the box office performance.

 

[Quasimod0]

I could see this being a mega success. Its certainly a huge film and a huge event

 

[kedrell]

If this film rakes in $1 billion, Marvel and everyone attached to this movie can do whatever the **** they want from now on.

One billion dollars is rarefied air. There are only ten movies ever that broke that milestone. Joss Whedon would go from being "that Buffy guy" to being known as a world-class director whose name is mentioned in the same breath as James Cameron, Peter Jackson, Chris Nolan, Tim Burton, Gore Verbinski, Michael Bay and, er, David Yates. Chris Hemsworth and Chris Evans would become household names. RDJ, Renner, Samjack and Scarjo would pad their resumes with even more star power. Marvel Studios would become almost as powerful as Fox, Warners, Dreamworks, and Disney.

One billion dollars for The Avengers wouldn't mean *just* that this movie "wins" the box office battle for 2012; it would totally change the way the game is played. This would be cinematic history.

Hope it happens. Doubt it will.

I guess you could throw Rob Marshall and Lee Unkrich in that mix as well.

 

[KangConquers]

I don't think A Billion will happen, but I think the film is more likely to hit 1 Billion than perform under $800 M. I'm thinking $875 M- $925 M.

 

[marcvader]

My guess is 850-900.