The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[MessiahDecoy123]

325 domestic
500 overseas

835 worldwide

 

[DarthAlani]

$380m Domestic
$525m OS
$905m WW

#3 film of the year

 

[Evan Drew]

I will weigh in on this...
First thing to consider is that this is the FIRST true Disney/Marvel movie. We have all already seen what they have in store for merchandise (popcorn boxes/cologne/etc.). No other superhero movie has come close to the demographic this is trying to reach in this area alone.
Then we have the theme parks. I guarantee that we have seen NOTHING yet. When they get the parks involved, that will reach..the US, Japan, China and France (i.e. Europe). China alone has really upped the WW community numbers.
With that said, I predict $1B and to be honest, we are all merely making assumptions. I choose to aim high and I have confidence that this will do Pirate numbers...at least.

 

[Evan Drew]

Oh, I guess I need to be more precise...so....er...$1,034,367,345.

 

[cherokeesam]

$750 million. ish.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

A lot of people are underselling The Avengers. I can understand why because of all the uncertainty surrounding the movie and also the past movies' performances. But you can never go by that, by example of Begins to TDK and Toy Story 1 and 2 to Toy Story 3. Also, there's way more hype surrounding The Avengers than Alice in Wonderland and Pirates 4, and both of those made a billion worldwide.

As you can tell by my signature, I'm gonna go with the milestone of about 1 Billion worldwide.

 

[DarthAlani]

I would love for this to pass 1 Billion, but I am sticking with just $905m WW for Now. TDKR and Avengers making over 1 Billion in the same year would be amazing for Comic fans.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

None of the Marvel studio movies have been huge overseas.

We'll see if Avengers can break the trend.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

None of the Marvel studio movies have been huge overseas.

We'll see if Avengers can break the trend.

Thor and Captain america did better overseas than in the US. Besides in the end, everything will pretty much balance itself out.

 

[Dr. Sid Jawtug]

I also think Caps numbers could have been better but due to being released a week after Potter it had to share the wealth.

 

[cherokeesam]

A lot of people are underselling The Avengers. I can understand why because of all the uncertainty surrounding the movie and also the past movies' performances. But you can never go by that, by example of Begins to TDK and Toy Story 1 and 2 to Toy Story 3. Also, there's way more hype surrounding The Avengers than Alice in Wonderland and Pirates 4, and both of those made a billion worldwide.

As you can tell by my signature, I'm gonna go with the milestone of about 1 Billion worldwide.

TDK's jump is attributable almost entirely to The Joker. People came to see *him,* not Batman. Toy Story 3's jump is attributable to the fact that summer movies for young kids (*not* teenagers) have always been blockbusters, but Hollywood has been releasing far less of them in recent years due to concentration on the teenager-young adult market (e.g., Transformers, Twilight, Harry Potter, Marvel & DC, etc.) So Toy Story 3 was a rare gem in a pretty empty subgenre. Alice and POTC 4 made a billion because of star power.

Avengers has none of those billion-dollar ingredients: star power, in both cast *and* crew; young kids as the target audience; an iconic villain. The movie is going to have to fight hard to exceed the sum of its parts, which we all know uses Iron Man as the highest common denominator at around 625 million w.w. gross.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Avengers has none of those billion-dollar ingredients: star power, in both cast *and* crew; young kids as the target audience; an iconic villain.

Yeah... I pretty much disagree with every singe one of your points in this post, not that you're opinion is wrong or anything. We'll see come may 4

 

[Rongxin]

I don't know why but 800mill sings to me

 

[Raiden]

I'm hoping The Avengers will gross 1B WW, but I'll predict 900 mil and hope that my estimate will be exceeded.

 

[BigThor]

People who aim their expectations for the numbers of this film relatively low based on past Marvel Studios things must remember one thing, those films didn't have Disney's marketing and resources behind them.

 

[warhorse78]

Yeah, I need to rethink my decision. I never would have expected Pirates of the Caribbean to be a billion dollar franchise, but now, it is a Disney movie that is capitalizing on the exploding overseas markets. The Avengers, with the 3D and IMAX, and all of the different genres it is catering to, definitely can reach a billion!

 

[BigThor]

Yeah, I need to rethink my decision. I never would have expected Pirates of the Caribbean to be a billion dollar franchise, but now, it is a Disney movie that is capitalizing on the exploding overseas markets. The Avengers, with the 3D and IMAX, and all of the different genres it is catering to, definitely can reach a billion!

Exactly, it's not guaranteed but it sure is alot more likely than most people think.

 

[Chewy]

I'm going ballsy on this one. 1.03B

The complete lack of quality competition in May will help tremendously

 

[cherokeesam]

People who aim their expectations for the numbers of this film relatively low based on past Marvel Studios things must remember one thing, those films didn't have Disney's marketing and resources behind them.

True. But Disney's powerful marketing engine works for younger kids and tweenies....I'm not sure that'll be the target audience for The Avengers. We'll see, though --- maybe they'll plaster the Disney channels/magazines/websites with Avengers hype in April to "plant the seed" in kiddies' minds and we'll see a massive surge in audiences from that.

 

[Arcam]

$861,486,433

 

[Lady Marion]

$900.000.2
May be more ;-)

 

[DarthAlani]

The Kid and fun factor will definitely help along with the little competition in May.

 

[KangConquers]

I'd just like to remind everyone something about the "highest common denominator."

If we assumed that Avengers was going to have equal attendance to the first Iron Man in the United States, then we'd get $352 M domestic. With continued growth in International markets, especially in the case of legit big blockbusters/ event movies, we often see 70/30 International to Domestic blockbuster ratios.

Given comic book movies don't fair nearly that well, I'm going to conservatively say Avengers will pull a 60/40 ratio; That would put it at roughly $880 M worldwide. Given the X-Factor associated with the movie, I think it's entirely possible the film could shoot up from a billion.

If Avengers doesn't break 800 M ww, I will crush up a copy of the blu-ray and eat it on youtube. That's how confident I am in this films success.

 

[kedrell]

I'm going ballsy on this one. 1.03B

The complete lack of quality competition in May will help tremendously

Truely said. I've been going over the archives at BOM and I don't think any of the Marvel May openers have ever had this weak a field of competition stacked against one of their movies. IM1 was close but I'd say The Avengers has an even more open field. I'll not be suprised if there's not another domestic release that exceeds $100M domestic gross between The Avengers and MIB3, which is 3 weekends later. I don't see Battleship nor Dark Shadows as real competition, at least domestically. DS will benefit OS from Depp's massive popularity in foreign markets but that's about it I think.

I could see TA remaining #1 for 3 weekends in a row. When was the last time any movie held that long at #1 in May?*

*Edit: Ok I checked. The Phantom Menace was the last May opener to stay at #1 for at least 3 weekends in a row(although one of it's #1 weekends was actually in June). The last May opener to be #1 for 3 weekends in a row entirely within the month of May was Lethal Weapon 3 back in 1992.

 

[kedrell]

I'm gonna guess how the weekends will break down domestically:

(This is assuming the movie is good and very well received by the GA)

Weekend#1: 150M for a number 1 finish

Weekend#2: 70M and still at #1. DS Takes #2 with $40M and TD at #3 with $30M

Weekend#3: $50M and still at #1. Battleship takes #2 with $45M and DS slips to #3 with $25M

Weekend#4: $35M and now at #2. MIB3 takes #1 with $70M. Battleship at #3 with $20M.

That would give it $305M just from the weekends in May alone. If this scenario played out it would actually be quite close to $400M already when you add in all the M-Th grosses between the weekends. And it still would also have another $50-$100M in the tank before closing for the rest of it's run.

I look at this as a best case scenario and I hope it's what happens. Domestic total: Anywhere from $450-$500M.