The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[Figs]

Actually I think that most of the GA still don't know about the nature of this project.

The great thing is that I remember reading an interview with Whedon, and he was saying that he made this film to where you don't have to watch the other films to enjoy it.

So even if a lot of the GA doesn't realize all those past films were leading up to this they can still enjoy the movie. Hopefully the Superbowl spot got them interested.

 

[Mysteryman]

It is a relief to hear that Whedon said that.

 

[cherokeesam]

One of my primary concerns in terms of the GA is that the 30 second spot is very vague .
And a lot of them might not have checked out the extended trailer .

That article I referenced above shows that they *did* check out the extended trailer. And buy into the Avengers. In LARGE numbers. The charts here show that Avengers was absolutely hammerin' the Tweets, with almost 500,000 Tweets logged saying "can't wait" for the movie....and that's 200,000 more Tweets than the nearest competitor, which was Act of Valor. It also shows that Facebook "likes" for Avengers skyrocketed by 11% after the ad....again, far more than any other movie with a Super Bowl ad.

http://wave.wavemetrix.com/content/...sights-avengers-drives-most-intent-view-00886

I'd say the Superbowl ad gamble paid off for Marvel. In spades.

 

[Cth]

That article I referenced above shows that they *did* check out the extended trailer. And buy into the Avengers. In LARGE numbers. The charts here show that Avengers was absolutely hammerin' the Tweets, with almost 500,000 Tweets logged saying "can't wait" for the movie....and that's 200,000 more Tweets than the nearest competitor, which was Act of Valor. It also shows that Facebook "likes" for Avengers skyrocketed by 11% after the ad....again, far more than any other movie with a Super Bowl ad.

http://wave.wavemetrix.com/content/...sights-avengers-drives-most-intent-view-00886

I'd say the Superbowl ad gamble paid off for Marvel. In spades.

To be fair though, Marvel required you to like the Facebook group to view the extended trailer. Good article but it leaves that part out.

 

[cherokeesam]

To be fair though, Marvel required you to like the Facebook group to view the extended trailer. Good article but it leaves that part out.

I did not know that, sir.
But yeah, that's an important piece of the jigsaw puzzle. Still, I wonder how much of that *can* be attributed to mandatory Facebook likes --- in this day and age, it probably only took a matter of minutes before the trailer had spread to the Interwebz, and I'd imagine that's where most people saw it without having to jump through hoops. (Myself, for instance. I don't even *have* a Facebook page, and I've been happily watching the trailer over and over, everywhere.)

 

[Superhero 101]

I think the film will make roughly around 800 million. To be precise i think 840,000,000

 

[kedrell]

^Well that would be more than enough to make the 6-film MCU experiment cross the $3 billion dollar mark at the world wide box office. It's at about $2.2 billion and change right now. Figure they made another $1 billion from the combined DVD/Blue Ray sales and rentals as well as selling the TV rights for re-broadcast and you have $4 billion. The production costs of all the films was about $1 billion so subtract that plus another $1 billion that the exhibitors got and Marvel profited from this venture by $2 billion dollars in a span of 4 years, or an average of $500 million in pure profit/year. Not bad at all.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I just got done watching Pirates 4 for the first time and let me tell you, there's no way that movie should have made a billion dollars WW, it wasn't even as good or climactic as at world's end. I firmly believe that the reason it did so well is because of the 3D, which is also one of the reasons I'm more sure than ever that The Avengers will make a billion dollars.

 

[BigThor]

I just got done watching Pirates 4 for the first time and let me tell you, there's no way that movie should have made a billion dollars WW, it wasn't even as good or climactic as at world's end. I firmly believe that the reason it did so well is because of the 3D, which is also one of the reasons I'm more sure than ever that The Avengers will make a billion dollars.

Yep, you and me both my friend. t:

 

[psylockolussus]

U.S. Box Office = $300+ million for sure! But I hope it gets over $400 million.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

If the first reviews are true and the quality of the movie is good and it's not only a brainless amalgamation of needless explosions and fighting scenes, I now can see it making a billion.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

If the first reviews are true and the quality of the movie is good and it's not only a brainless amalgamation of needless explosions and fighting scenes, I now can see it making a billion.

Did you actually think it would be? The moment they hired an actual writer to be the director I was sure we'd get a lot of character and story, be it a good, bad, or even great story... story none the less.

 

[Marvel]

http://www.starburstmagazine.com/news/1954-movie-news-the-avengers-have-been-roughly-assembled

I love this quote... "It's a long movie but it doesn't feel like it." I pray they cut NOTHING and it keeps a long running time! That may cut in to box office early but not in the long run when word of mouth takes over. The longer the better for a movie they've been setting up for years.

I'm betting $800 million WW is the floor. It'll hit north of that. The question is, how far north?

 

[TheVileOne]

I know everyone is excited but I still feel the need to temper my expectations for box office really. Just think about this. Iron Man could only do as high as about what $600 million? That was with a sequel many felt was disappointing.

 

[J.Howlett]

317 million domestic
670 million worldwide

 

[Neo_3]

317 million domestic
670 million worldwide

Only 353M OS?

 

[J.Howlett]

Only 353M OS?

Maybe a little more but not much more.

 

[flickchick85]

I know everyone is excited but I still feel the need to temper my expectations for box office really. Just think about this. Iron Man could only do as high as about what $600 million? That was with a sequel many felt was disappointing.

The way I'm seeing it is the minimum it would do would be IM2's domestic BO ($312m) + Thor's international BO ($450m) = $762m WW. I think those are the guaranteed audiences since that encompasses the fans of those particular characters. So $762m minimum. Add to that the team-up "event" novelty boost and I'd be shocked if it didn't at least crack $800m. If it's an awesome movie that warrants repeat viewings, a billion is definitely within reach, imo.

 

[Chewy]

A billion is definitely in play. 400M domestic and 600M overseas are very doable.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I honestly thought both TDKR and Avengers had a shot in making a billion, but I'm not so positive anymore.

Dark Shadows (Depp/Burton + Vampires = potential disaster), Battleship (unofficially 'Transformers 4' featuring Rihanna), The Bourne Legacy and Expendables 2 (Chuck Norris) could be sleeper hits.

 

[Chewy]

I think they'll all do well for themselves but they won't affect TA or TDKR. TA and TDKR will sink or swim on their own merits. I think they'll both hit a billion or get very close.

Every summer there are biggish movies opening every week. This one, if anything is weaker. Dark Shadows is R-rated niche fare, Expendables 2 has its audience and won't expand much beyond that, Bourne Legacy could do pretty well but I doubt it'll outgross the Damon Bourne films. Battleship looks silly beyond belief but I have no doubt it'll gross around 150M.

 

[Guerrilla]

I will guess 1.2 billion worldwide. Just a guess. Probably a bit high. What is the all time record btw?

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I think they'll all do well for themselves but they won't affect TA or TDKR. TA and TDKR will sink or swim on their own merits. I think they'll both hit a billion or get very close.

Every summer there are biggish movies opening every week. This one, if anything is weaker. Dark Shadows is R-rated niche fare, Expendables 2 has its audience and won't expand much beyond that, Bourne Legacy could do pretty well but I doubt it'll outgross the Damon Bourne films. Battleship looks silly beyond belief but I have no doubt it'll gross around 150M.

I hope so.

The one I fear for The Avengers the most is Battleship (it appears incredibly stupid but it features the music industry's #1 leading lady and Transformers-esque action/visuals), and the one for TDKR is The Bourne Legacy (won't revolve around Damon this time around but it is a famous franchise).

I'm hoping Prometheus ends up being the sleeper hit of the summer, but if history has taught us anything over the last couple of years in cinema, it's that awful films such as RTOF or Pirates 4 have the ability to conquer.

 

[flickchick85]

I think they'll all do well for themselves but they won't affect TA or TDKR. TA and TDKR will sink or swim on their own merits. I think they'll both hit a billion or get very close.

Every summer there are biggish movies opening every week. This one, if anything is weaker. Dark Shadows is R-rated niche fare, Expendables 2 has its audience and won't expand much beyond that, Bourne Legacy could do pretty well but I doubt it'll outgross the Damon Bourne films. Battleship looks silly beyond belief but I have no doubt it'll gross around 150M.

Wait a minute. Dark Shadows is going to be R-rated?! That's....not the kind of movie I was expecting it to be at all.

 

[Quasimod0]

Dark shadows is pg13