The Batman Box Office Super Early Predictions

[DlAMONDZ]

DC movies are hard to predict. Mostly because they don't feed off each other like the MCU. Each one has to get stand on it's own and get by on it's own merits

For now I'll say around Homecoming numbers but with a more domestic slant

 

[Invader Joker]

1.2 or 1.5 billion is bananas. It's unlikely The Batman is going to be as loud, flashy and action-oriented as, say, Aquaman which dramatically lowers the money it would make in China and other overseas markets.

Joker wasn't flashy, loud and action-oriented so...
And about the China thing, who knows. But at least we'll know it'll have the advantage of the PG 13 rating and more action (even if it's not the focus) so that automatically gives it a larger audience even outside of China.
And yeah, I'm trying to look at things from the studio's perspective. You could say, for example, BvS did perfectly fine with 870 million but that doesn't really matter if the studio doesn't think that.

We can't just ignore the precedent Joker has set.

 

[SwordOfMorning]

Joker wasn't flashy, loud and action-oriented so...
And about the China thing, who knows. But at least we'll know it'll have the advantage of the PG 13 rating and more action (even if it's not the focus) so that automatically gives it a larger audience even outside of China.
And yeah, I'm trying to look at things from the studio's perspective. You could say, for example, BvS did perfectly fine with 870 million but that doesn't really matter if the studio doesn't think that.

Again, Joker is unique to the point of bordering on irrelevance when discussing The Batman's potential.

That (a whole hell of a lot of) people ****ing hated BvS was a big factor there too. It wasn't a solid success they could then build on like Wonder Woman which made similar money, it coasted on hype and recognizable IPs but did such colossal brand damage that the narrative behind DC films remains 'Finally, a good DC film!' even though the last couple have all been well received.

 

[Invader Joker]

Again, Joker is unique to the point of bordering on irrelevance when discussing The Batman's potential.

That (a whole hell of a lot of) people ****ing hated BvS was a big factor there too. It wasn't a solid success they could then build on like Wonder Woman which made similar money, it coasted on hype and recognizable IPs but did such colossal brand damage that the narrative behind DC films remains 'Finally, a good DC film!' even though the last couple have all been well received.

Do you seriously think studio execs are just gonna have a monumental success like Joker and then just simply not take it into account at all for the next film in that same franchise?

You want them to just simply act like Joker didn't exist, but it does. You can't just simply have a film as gigantic as this and then expect people to ignore it.

This is the same studio that just has completely given up on Superman because his films made 670 million and 870 million. I can't see any scenario in which they'll be happy about this film performing less than the cheaper, R rated, more risky counterpart.

 

[Kane52630]

It's gonna make at least 5.5 Kaboolian dollars.

 

[DeadlyWest]

I'd say it's going to depend on marketing and how good the movie itself is.

Batman v Superman made 800 million on the name alone, but the week one profits immediately dropped by the next weekend by something like 60%. Because BvS wasn't a good movie and word of mouth keeps people away.

The Batman, I'd say, will make at least 500-600 million off of it being a Batman movie alone. If it's a very good movie? I could easily see it breaking 1 billion

 

[I Am The Knight]

This is so annoying.

No one expected Joker to become a mammoth success that would make a billion. Some people at WB didn't want to make the film. Joker was lightning in a bottle.

The Batman could go either way. I think a really good Batman reboot COULD make a billion under the right circumstances, but an $800-$900 million gross (!) would not be some kind of disappointment and it's silly to think so.

 

[Eddie Dean]

 

[TheGuy]

I think it will top 1b.

 

[Invader Joker]

This is so annoying.

No one expected Joker to become a mammoth success that would make a billion. Some people at WB didn't want to make the film. Joker was lightning in a bottle.

The Batman could go either way. I think a really good Batman reboot COULD make a billion under the right circumstances, but an $800-$900 million gross (!) would not be some kind of disappointment and it's silly to think so.

I hear you, but I still can't see a scenario in which an R rated 55 million dollars Joker film makes more than a PG 13 higher budget Batman film and execs are just happy and cheerful and not the least bit diappointed on the Batman film.

They're not just simply going to forget Joker and the money it made. No matter how much you may want them to.

 

[Invader Joker]

With the pandemic we're gonna have to wait till Spider-Man No Way Home comes out to get a read on the international market right now, I think it's safe to say that The Batman will make 20%-40% less than whatever Spider-Man NWH does internationally,

However, in terms of the domestic market, seeing how it seems pretty much completely healed by now and Batman movies have always been massive domestic, I feel pretty comfortable on predicting anything from 300-330 million for this domestically. 405 million international doesn't sound that insane either (James Bond just reached that) so a total cume of about 700-750 million.

At the very least don't see the international numbers going any lower than Godzilla vs. Kong though. 367 million; granted, GvK got a huge boost from China but more people will be vaccinated internationally come March 2022 than when GvK came out so I think that'll make up for it.

So in total... 600-750 million dollars are my estimations on this at the moment. NWH will make me adjust my predictions though. And granted, the domestic market can always overperform massively when it comes to Batman like it did for TDK and TDKR which their insane 450-500 million domestic, but I doubt that'll be the case this time around.

 

[DeadlyWest]

My immediate gut instinct says anywhere from 600-800 million. I'm not ruling out a billion, but given we've had a bit of a lull in terms of good Batman movies, I'd more expect that for the sequels. Bring COVID into the mix and it's hard to concretely predict. I reckon it clears 600 though, 800 if COVID has significantly died down as an issue

 

[Invader Joker]

My immediate gut instinct says anywhere from 600-800 million. I'm not ruling out a billion, but given we've had a bit of a lull in terms of good Batman movies, I'd more expect that for the sequels. Bring COVID into the mix and it's hard to concretely predict. I reckon it clears 600 though, 800 if COVID has significantly died down as an issue

If it wasn't for tge pandemic I think a billion would be guaranteed because if Joker managed to reach that there's no way this couldn't. But the pandemic makes things not as simple.

There's still a road for this to make a billion if it overperforms domestically, makes as much as TDKR in the US and 550 million international (200 less than Joker did internationally) but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

 

[DeadlyWest]

If it wasn't for tge pandemic I think a billion would be guaranteed because if Joker managed to reach that there's no way this couldn't. But the pandemic makes things not as simple.

There's still a road for this to make a billion if it overperforms domestically, makes as much as TDKR in the US and 550 million international (200 less than Joker did internationally) but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

Yeah, I'm not absolutely ruling out a billion, it's certainly possible. But the pandemic along with it being 10 years (or 6 from BvS) since a Batman movie makes me think it won't because like with Batman Begins, the public needs to see a movie first before it goes all in. Hence why Begins only made 500 million, but TDK made double that. I reckon it could be a similar story here.

 

[Invader Joker]

Yeah, I'm not absolutely ruling out a billion, it's certainly possible. But the pandemic along with it being 10 years (or 6 from BvS) since a Batman movie makes me think it won't because like with Batman Begins, the public needs to see a movie first before it goes all in. Hence why Begins only made 500 million, but TDK made double that. I reckon it could be a similar story here.

Nah. I think that Batman Begins is an extremely weak comparison (it only made 330 million I think)
The market is much different than what Begins was back then. Do you think in 2005 an R Rated Joker movie with zero action would've made a billion? The brand is much more popular than during that time.

The main holdback is the pandemic. Being a reboot is pretty much a non factor here as evidenced by Joker.

 

[DeadlyWest]

Nah. I think that Batman Begins is an extremely weak comparison (it only made 330 million I think)
The market is much different than what Begins was back then. Do you think in 2005 an R Rated Joker movie with zero action would've made a billion? The brand is much more popular than during that time.

I meant similar story in the sense that it could have a lower box office than a billion for similar reasons to why Begins didn't make as much. Here, that's 600-800 million. Back then, as you said, it's 300. I'm not expecting The Batman to make that little, but I expect it to not hit a billion for that type of reason

 

[BatLobster]

Man, if a Joker film makes more than a Batman film....talk about things that would make The Joker laugh!

Of course, there's a pandemic-sized elephant in the room and just the fact that it has changed viewing habits, so we have to account for that. But that would still be pretty weird.

 

[JubJub86]

Hard to say what impact the pandemic will have, yeah. But things are looking up, it's not like back in the Tenet days.

Still, gonna be realistic and guess about

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Joker wasn't flashy, loud and action-oriented so...
And about the China thing, who knows. But at least we'll know it'll have the advantage of the PG 13 rating and more action (even if it's not the focus) so that automatically gives it a larger audience even outside of China.
And yeah, I'm trying to look at things from the studio's perspective. You could say, for example, BvS did perfectly fine with 870 million but that doesn't really matter if the studio doesn't think that.

We can't just ignore the precedent Joker has set.

Joker had a media blitz going for it that The Batman isn’t even remotely near though. And with only three months to go, it’s doubtful The Batman ever will be. The mainstream press so far seems pretty disinterested in this movie.

 

[Invader Joker]

Joker had a media blitz going for it that The Batman isn’t even remotely near though. And with only three months to go, it’s doubtful The Batman ever will be. The mainstream press so far seems pretty disinterested in this movie.

3 months before Joker nobody was talking about it either. Also that media blitz was pretty much exclusively domestic, I'm talking international.

 

[shauner111]

Was just gonna say that Joker's media craze started not long before the movie dropped. And The Batman's marketing hasn't really hit yet. Wait til Christmas or early January and it should start rolling.

 

[emielaen]

All forms of press are definitely gonna be interested in a Batman movie lol what in the world

 

[Mysteryman]

This is so annoying.

No one expected Joker to become a mammoth success that would make a billion. Some people at WB didn't want to make the film. Joker was lightning in a bottle.

The Batman could go either way. I think a really good Batman reboot COULD make a billion under the right circumstances, but an $800-$900 million gross (!) would not be some kind of disappointment and it's silly to think so.

Especially, in this pandemic climate.

 

[Invader Joker]

About the box office, yeah we can say goodbye to China despite the DC Fandome panel.

 

[DKDetective]

About the box office, yeah we can say goodbye to China despite the DC Fandome panel.

Good riddance. Banking on an authoritarian dictatorship with barbaric censorship laws as a key theatrical market was never going to work out long-term for Hollywood. Frankly, it has only negatively impacted the quality of Hollywood tentpole films as they try and shoe-horn in Chinese actors, locations, or trim content potentially offensive to Beijing.