The Batman Box Office Super Early Predictions

[Iceman]

Still on track to beat BVS domestic this weekend or Monday. Twitter will be fun lol

Moving nicely through the 300ms.

 

[JOE]

This movie is a financial success no matter which clickbait YouTubers say otherwise. Wasn’t a massive fan of the movie as a whole, but I know it has potential for a killer trilogy. Looking forward to see where the next installment goes.

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

The Batman moving ahead of BVS and will probably do the same against Spider-Man Home Coming later this week domestically.

https://***********/variety/status/1508088394425020428?s=21&t=wUjtGuI1EKHexlhDFDUBfw

 

[Luigi]

 

[fake]

This movie is a financial success no matter which clickbait YouTubers say otherwise. Wasn’t a massive fan of the movie as a whole, but I know it has potential for a killer trilogy. Looking forward to see where the next installment goes.

My favorite bit about the people adding marketing spend to production budget is that they aren't adding the post theatrical revenue which would make it an even field.

The rule of thumb has forever been that to make a profit a movie needs to gross between 2-2.5x it's production budget. Mainly because the home video, tv and satellite rights and other post theatrical revenue offset marketing easily. So you just look at the box office against the budget.

Another thing I don't get is a lot of cultists saying that BvS was pulled from theaters by WB after 3 weeks. That's not just wrong, it's provably wrong just by looking at the BvS box office run.

 

[LoganGambit87]

672 million WW now

 

[The Lazarus Pit]

This is the best Batman movie ever, I wanted it to hit 1b.

I’ve talked to a lot of people who are confused by the number of recent Batman actors/continuities, that may have contributed to this movie’s gross. I understand this is considered a success, but Joker and Aquaman made 1B, and Batman is their main character. It should have made a billion. I’m not worried about the future, because they have a solid foundation and I trust Reeves, but it has to be viewed realistically. The box office performance is a little bit underwhelming, and I wish it weren’t.

 

[Matheus Miranda]

This is the best Batman movie ever, I wanted it to hit 1b.

I’ve talked to a lot of people who are confused by the number of recent Batman actors/continuities, that may have contributed to this movie’s gross. I understand this is considered a success, but Joker and Aquaman made 1B, and Batman is their main character. It should have made a billion. I’m not worried about the future, because they have a solid foundation and I trust Reeves, but it has to be viewed realistically. The box office performance is a little bit underwhelming, and I wish it weren’t.

Nah, It shouldnt have made a billion.

Its Batman, a HUGE IP, fine. But the movie was not made for everyone.

Its an almost 3hour noir movie focusing on the detective aspect of Batman.

In the world we have right now (the pandemic, Russia x Ukrayne War), we pretty Lucky of It being profitable even If slightly.

Im actually amazed w/ how good of legs its maintaning. Its pretty much a MCU movies' legs what's remarkable.

 

[SwordOfMorning]

This is the best Batman movie ever, I wanted it to hit 1b.

I’ve talked to a lot of people who are confused by the number of recent Batman actors/continuities, that may have contributed to this movie’s gross. I understand this is considered a success, but Joker and Aquaman made 1B, and Batman is their main character. It should have made a billion. I’m not worried about the future, because they have a solid foundation and I trust Reeves, but it has to be viewed realistically. The box office performance is a little bit underwhelming, and I wish it weren’t.

We live in a completely different world than when Joker or Aquaman were released. NWH was an insane exception for very obvious reasons. If the studio seriously thought a billion was likely/inevitable they’re insane.

 

[Matheus Miranda]

We live in a completely different world than when Joker or Aquaman were released. NWH was an insane exception for very obvious reasons. If the studio seriously thought a billion was likely/inevitable they’re insane.

Its already the 2nd best Domestic Gross for a comic book movie in the pandemic era.

The First place is a three Spiderman team-up and the movie that Will dethrone The Batman for the 2nd place is a Multiverse movie.

As a reboot solo movie, The Batman is doing pretty fine.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

It currently has the same score as Shazam on Chinese site Maoyan: 7.9

So even without covid, it was gonna tank regardless. Unless they get China on board even the sequel is gonna miss a billion

 

[Matheus Miranda]

Would It tank in China?

Probably.

But It's a lot better to face your fate w/o 40% of the market closed due COVID (include a lot of biggest cities).

And no Russia where was always fine for DC movies.

If Warner thought a niche movie (because yea, The Batman has a specific audience) would make a billion only because "Batman", they didnt learn w/ BvS.

 

[OnLeatherWings]

So even without covid, it was gonna tank regardless.

Would It tank in China?

The return of TankMan...?

 

[DeadlyWest]

It currently has the same score as Shazam on Chinese site Maoyan: 7.9

So even without covid, it was gonna tank regardless. Unless they get China on board even the sequel is gonna miss a billion

I mean TDK made a billion dollars without China, so I don't think that's necessarily true. Batman is a domestic juggernaut, I could definitely see the sequel breaking that barrier without China under the right circumstances.

 

[SwordOfMorning]

Let’s hope any future sequels avoid any of the artistically and morally bankrupt things Hollywood does to appeal to the Chinese market. The era of heavy reliance on China is probably coming to an end to begin with.

 

[Boom]

Not saying it would've made a substantial difference, but the film had an extremely limited release in China due to COVID and (as far as I know) no release at all in Ukraine and Russia given the ongoing conflict. So the film didn't have a full deck to work with.

It feels like studios are starting to pull back on the China dependency a bit. And this film was certainly not a good fit for the Chinese demographic anyway. Even at full strength, I doubt this would've performed well over there.

- Reboot coming off of two poorly received films starring the character (BvS, JL)
- Dark, three-hour mystery/thriller
- Limited China release
- No Russia release

If it can hit $800 million, I'd call that a sound success. Not to mention its performance on Max.

 

[Moncton]

It's the third different Batman we've had in just the last 15 years or so, throw in all the other variables and expecting a billion was foolish. Look at Homecoming, even with all the Marvel might it didn't come close to a billion. If The Batman gets to 750 million it is a massive success. Also, studios keep much more of the doemstic gross

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

Over on BOT they're saying that Morbius is doing pretty bad with presales and with the pending bad reviews it might give The Batman another shot at boosting those domestic numbers towards $400M before heading to HBO Max.

 

[Boom]

I'm thinking it caps out at $750 million. Unless they keep it in theaters through May (despite the HBO Max release mid-April).

 

[fake]

I'm thinking it caps out at $750 million. Unless they keep it in theaters through May (despite the HBO Max release mid-April).

I think it will get to close to 800 in the end. It's at 331 domestic and even BvS did 2.2x it's 4th weekend more, The Batman should show better legs for at least 2.5-2.7x more. So 55-75M more domestic for 386-401M domestic. If it's even within 5M of 400M, WB will get it there with double features with Dumbledore and other tricks like reduced ticket prices. And OS it has about another 40M left there at minimum, more likely 50-60M.

On the low end, that's 775M and on the high end it's 805M.

 

[Doctor Jones]

How much do studios profit off global grosses?

 

[flickchick85]

How much do studios profit off global grosses?

Depends on the country, and depends on the release. But generally speaking, they get a much lower percentage of the international gross than they do the domestic gross, due to foreign distribution/exhibition deals. Which is why they care so much more about the domestic gross. The few film franchises that survive on international gross (like the last few Pirates of the Caribbean films) tend to do so because it's just so much higher than the domestic, it's enough to offset that lower percentage of it that they get.

 

[Quixotica]

Let’s hope any future sequels avoid any of the artistically and morally bankrupt things Hollywood does to appeal to the Chinese market. The era of heavy reliance on China is probably coming to an end to begin with.

Yeah, stick to artistically and morally bankrupt things to appeal to the American/western market.

 

[TheSmoothKnight]

 

[Doctor Jones]

Depends on the country, and depends on the release. But generally speaking, they get a much lower percentage of the international gross than they do the domestic gross, due to foreign distribution/exhibition deals. Which is why they care so much more about the domestic gross. The few film franchises that survive on international gross (like the last few Pirates of the Caribbean films) tend to do so because it's just so much higher than the domestic, it's enough to offset that lower percentage of it that they get.

Do you know what percentage they reap from it?