The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 2

[Iceman]

No.3 all time domestic will be an amazing achievement.

 

[TyBig]

The only reason why they would move is to summer is so it could have summer weekday numbers.

I say keep it in February

 

[Gladius Nova]

The only reason why they would move is to summer is so it could have summer weekday numbers.

I say keep it in February

I think they should keep it in February also. Why ruin a “good thing”.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

2.1 for Monday

 

[Iceman]

BP will finish well clear of BvS and JL combined domestically. That's crazy right there. Imagine suggesting that when JL was first announced.

 

[kedrell]

3.04x actually, but yeah, it should definitely get that. The lowest 5th weekend multiplier in the MCU is 3.11x, would be very surprising if Black Panther went lower than that.

You must be adding this weekend's number into the equation. I never saw the point in doing that since this is a predictive exercise and we already know what this last weekend's number is for certain sure(no prediction required there).

 

[coreymb16]

I think they should keep a February release date for the sequel. Ties in well with Black History Month in the US and the competition is minimal so it gives it longer time in theaters like now.

There’s no way Marvel is going wait 4 years for their most successful solo film ever. The sequel will come out in 2021 at the latest. I can’t imagine one of three dates in 2021 isn’t Black Panther 2.

 

[Iceman]

2021 is my preferred year. 2 years is not enough time to do it justice without advance notice (as in if they had already started on it), and 4 years is too long a wait and an unnecessary delay of a huge pot of money for Marvel/Disney.

 

[KevTravels]

There’s no way Marvel is going wait 4 years for their most successful solo film ever. The sequel will come out in 2021 at the latest. I can’t imagine one of three dates in 2021 isn’t Black Panther 2.

Same here. The people want more of Wakanda and seeing the Dora Miljae.

Marvel won't drop the ball by releasing in 4 years. Plus, Coogler only has 1 film in pre-production which won't take all that long. I'd expect him to be working on the sequel starting in 2019. With production starting in 2020.

 

[iEquinox]

You must be adding this weekend's number into the equation. I never saw the point in doing that since this is a predictive exercise and we already know what this last weekend's number is for certain sure(no prediction required there).

It being a "predictive exercise" really has nothing to do with it, though. It's just the way multipliers are defined :P

A movie that adds 2 times what it made on its (n)th weekend, has an (n)th weekend multiplier of 3x. For the same reason that when a movie adds $200M more after a $100M 1st weekend(=$300M final total), it has a 3x multiplier, not 2x.

 

[Romannen]

BP is hurting other would-be blockbusters:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...come-hollywoods-worst-nightmare/#625500f566a6

 

[Donald Thomas]

Aloha,
As of 3/20/2018

Black Panther
Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $607,215,681 51.0%
+ Foreign: $583,300,000 49.0%
= Worldwide: $1,190,515,681

Long Live the King of Wakanda

 

[SomeOldGuy]

BP is hurting other would-be blockbusters:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...come-hollywoods-worst-nightmare/#625500f566a6

I usually like Scott’s stuff but he’s off base here imo. His own example of TLJ/TGS/Jumanji shows big blockbusters can coexist just fine. The problem with BP’s competitors is that they just aren’t very good movies (or in the case of Annihilation, were dumped and abandoned by the studio).

 

[iEquinox]

The Monday number pushed its multiplier over 3x. Looks like it'll end up with the 2nd highest multiplier out of all MCU movies, behind only the first GotG(which got 3.53x). Very impressive. Especially after such a huge opening which was inflated by a holiday as well.

 

[samsnee]

There’s no way Marvel is going wait 4 years for their most successful solo film ever. The sequel will come out in 2021 at the latest. I can’t imagine one of three dates in 2021 isn’t Black Panther 2.

What does that have to do with opening it in Feb? Presidents Day weekend is Feb 15 that year so they could easily open it on Feb 12 or Feb 19, similar to this year.

 

[Dboi]

Oh the good ol'days when people thought BP wouldn't make big numbers at the box office LMAO.

 

[terry78]

And it wasn't that far off.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

And to think, back in January I was wishfully hoping BP would make Deadpool numbers OW (~132 m) and Spider-man Homecoming numbers DOM (~332 m).

 

[Iceman]

And to think, back in January I was wishfully hoping BP would make Deadpool numbers OW (~132 m) and Spider-man Homecoming numbers DOM (~332 m).

You meant Deadpool and Homecoming dom combined of course, which was a great guess.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

You meant Deadpool and Homecoming dom combined of course, which was a great guess.

Still too low..

 

[Pennywise]

BP is hurting other would-be blockbusters:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...come-hollywoods-worst-nightmare/#625500f566a6

Seems like an over exaggeration a bit.

 

[Fallen]

BP will finish well clear of BvS and JL combined domestically. That's crazy right there. Imagine suggesting that when JL was first announced.

OMG .

Warner ruined the DCEU.

 

[Limonade]

BP is hurting other would-be blockbusters:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...come-hollywoods-worst-nightmare/#625500f566a6

Scott's assessment rests on the fact that this movie was seen, from the get-go, as a huge tentpole film.

Which wasn't the case a month prior to BP release. He's simply taking the wrong message out of this.

Everybody puts a slate of movies out with the hope of it striking a massive success and keeping in mind what's the competition is producing.

I believe this makes the Marvel Studio brand that much more terrifying to the films surrounding those movies.

It's just one more reason the cramp into DC/WB slate as they're not doing so well.

 

[Xeno]

2.1 for Monday

Whoa! That is fantastic for a film that has been out for over a month.

 

[daddydivine]

BP is hurting other would-be blockbusters:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...come-hollywoods-worst-nightmare/#625500f566a6

Clickbait. He's basically pulling a Marv-o by using custom designed statistics to build a false narrative.