The Amazing Spider-Man The Box Office Thread

[Spider-ManHero12]

^^ Lol, why didn't you see it? I saw it on opening day, but there wasn't that many people for some reason.

 

[Ajendo]

I think the reasons have been made obvious.

 

[DieSmiling]

That is exactly what I have been saying...it didn't do as good because it came off of the stink of B&R.

It made a slight profit and did what it was meant to do, lay the frame work for another franchise. However, just looking at all the massive fans of the new Batman and how TDK smashed records, it makes you wonder where all those people were 3 years earlier. They were hesitant to go to the theater and rightfully so. Same will happen with this movie. Yes it will still make a profit but it won't pull in anything massive. Hopefully it does what BB did and lay the framework for an amazing new franchise.

See, I disagree with this logic.

There were a multitude of reasons why Batman Begins struggled, which I outlined in my earlier post. The stigma of B&R was a factor, no doubt, but there were other factors. Very few of these factors apply to Spider-Man.

We live in an era of franchises. Original movies are becoming less and less important, because people want to see what they know, and the studios don't want to gamble. Disney knows that a Pirates of the Caribbean movie starring Johnny Depp is going to do gangbusters at the box office, so they keep making them. Pirates, Transformers, Harry Potter, Spider-Man, Batman, it's all about a lucrative brand that catches fire and becomes a license to print money.

One of the things Batman Begins will ultimately be remembered for is being one of the first films to bring a formerly huge but dormant franchise back to life. While it wasn't itself a mega hit, as we've established, it laid the groundwork for one of the biggest hits of all time, that actually transcended the original mega hit, something rarely done on such a scale.

The Amazing Spider-Man will benefit from these two factors -- the "era of the franchise" and the acceptance of a "reboot." This film won't be met with a feeling of "another Spider-Man?" People out there are waiting for the next one, wondering why it hasn't been made yet. The majority of people will be willing to accept a new cast, if the movie meets their flashy expectations, and is well marketed as an exciting new take on the character.

The only inherent risk, of course, is that not enough time has passed between the original trilogy and this reboot, and that the casual fan is unwilling to accept a new cast. Obviously movies as successful as the original Spider-Man franchise will have a lot of fans who love that interpretation of the franchise, and I'm sure there will be some standing around confused wondering "where are Tobey and Kirsten?"

Overall, I don't think the "Spider-Man brand" has anything to overcome, and the character is arguably more popular than ever, something that was far from true with Batman at the time of Begins. Moviegoers have been conditioned to neverending franchises and reboots of established properties, so in a way, movies like Batman Begins have paved the way for other similar attempts to avoid the "reboot hit" it suffered.

 

[Ajendo]

If we continue to get sensible and intelligent posts like ^^ this place is going to make Nagasaki and Hiroshima look like nothing more than a loud bang.

 

[spider-neil]

ANOTHER excellent post by diesmiling.

people have at pains to point out the differences of ASM coming off the back of SM3 and BB coming off the back of B&R, they AREN'T the same thing...at ALL.

 

[chaseter]

It all comes down to numbers to see whose theories hold true. I think it will make less than all the Raimi movies despite the quality. If that happens, then my theories hold true. First Class won't even make X2 or X3 numbers. It will probably settle around what Wolverine and X1 made...maybe a little more. The GA does not love reboots. We may live in the era of the reboot but us fans are such a small percentage of the box office that it doesn't even really matter what we think in terms of if we will see it or not.

Franchises have always been huge box office pulls.

 

[Ajendo]

Lets be real here, does the GA even give a crap about Xmen origins?? the X movies got old real quick, with about 20 different tv shows ripping off the basic concept. I bet audiences that do go and see it are going to wonder why the hell wolverine isn't in it and knowing critics, they'll probably knock the movie down an extra level just because of it. Seriously, is there any ACTUAL hype for XO? That being said, spider-man is a completely different beast and its a rather poor joke to even compare the 2 rebooted movies.

 

[chaseter]

They aren't on the same level...that is correct. But, negative reactions are negative reactions. They both lead to a decline in the box office. It doesn't matter if one is more popular than the other, it matters how the GA feels about a new movie that doesn't have the cast from the previous franchise they loved and the last movie they remember was bad quality wise...both lead to a decline in box office. Yeah Spider-Man will make more than X-Men, that is a given. But, like X-Men, Spider-Man won't make as much as previous installments.

Another factor could be superhero over saturation. Diesmiling mentioned reboot mania and franchises, but there has also been an over saturation of superhero movies in the past few years. I think we will also see superhero movies slowly start to decline in their box office pull. I think gone are the days we see superhero movies pull in 400-500 million domestic. The only one I could see getting close is TDKR and if it does it won't go much over 400. The GA is getting tired of all these superhero movies and they are all competing with each other and bringing down their overall box office pull.

 

[Venom'sDad]

I have to say Chaseter, I do agree that TASM will suffer at the BO some. I don't know what their expectations are; but, I don't see it doing better than any of the previous films. With that said, and a reported budget of $80 million, I suspect it will make a huge profit....making a little more than three times what they have invested; making Sony happy.

 

[DieSmiling]

Another factor could be superhero over saturation. Diesmiling mentioned reboot mania and franchises, but there has also been an over saturation of superhero movies in the past few years. I think we will also see superhero movies slowly start to decline in their box office pull. I think gone are the days we see superhero movies pull in 400-500 million domestic. The only one I could see getting close is TDKR and if it does it won't go much over 400. The GA is getting tired of all these superhero movies and they are all competing with each other and bringing down their overall box office pull.

This is a fair point, and to a certain degree, something I agree with.

The single biggest issue is Marvel (no offense, Marvel fans) flooding the market with sub-par films for second rate heroes. Iron Man, Spider-Man, X-Men, Batman, these movies are all beloved. What hurts the superhero genre are movies like Fantastic Four, Daredevil, and Ghost Rider. Movies that were made without passion or care, pumped out to capitalize on the massive success of the first Spider-Man.

If a movie like X-Men: First Class were to underperform, I think the fact that Thor, Green Lantern, and Captain America all coming out the same summer would definitley have something to do with it, which begs an even bigger question (and one of the legitimate reasons I could see ASM underperform): Is 2012 just too loaded?

If you look at 2012, it's an epic slate of superhero movies sure to give every fanboy a wet dream.

The Dark Knight Rises
The Amazing Spider-Man
Superman Reboot
The Avengers
The Wolverine

That's Superman, Batman, and Spider-Man movies all in the same year -- and that doesn't even count the freaking Avengers or Wolverine.

The Dark Knight Rises is safe, IMO. It's the final chapter in a big trilogy, coming off the heels of one of the biggest movies ever. People in the general public already know it's the last one, and already know Anne Hathaway is Catwoman. It's the kind of movie that will sell itself, and I would guess the quality will be strong enough to sustain it at the box office. It won't get TDK numbers, but as good as that movie was, getting 500+ million was a bit of a perfect storm that (sadly) factored in the death of one of the stars giving an incredible performance.

I think The Amazing Spider-Man will be fine too. I think it's possible that chaseter is right that it won't gross quite as much as the previous films, but there's no way it has Batman Begins type numbers -- I'd be shocked if it got under 300+ million. Movies that are the safest at the box office these days are franchises that are popular with kids. Despite Batman's epic resurgance, I assure you, Spider-Man is hands down the number 1 superhero with children. The movie will be very successful.

Superman is the most interesting case, by far, IMO. In many ways, he's the "original" superhero, and arguably still the most recognizable superhero in history. That said, there's no question Batman and Spider-Man have easily surpassed him in popularity, and the real question is whether there really is any interest in a Superman movie by current audiences, or if Superman Returns got lost in the shuffle of a crowded summer and turned off those who did go to see it. Releasing the film in the Holliday season instead of the summer is a brilliant move, IMO. It's exactly what Superman will need to stand out among a crowded superhero year. The two pressing questions are A) does the public have interest in a superhero movie and B) what will Zack Snyder and co. turn out, and how will it look/be perceived? With Nolan, we kind of know what TDKR will be. We don't know what Marc Webb's Spider-Man will entail, but we know enough about the producers and those involved (and have seen some set pics) to have a rough idea of the direction they're going with it. I have no idea what they're going to do with Superman, and how the first trailers come off will be EXTREMELY important to its success.

Avengers will be a hit, but the scale of the hit is a questionmark. Definitley the kind of movie that would benefit from being THE superhero movie of the summer and that might suffer from having Batman and Spider-Man stealing it's hype/thunder. Not something Marvel fans want to hear, but I think the superhero team-up idea isn't the explosive unmissable concept some do. Robert Downey Jr. should be front and center with the marketing. (I reserve the right to revise this assessment should Thor and Cap'n America exceed my expectations.

I don't even know when The Wolverine is going to be released, but I suspect it's the one that's going to take the biggest hit. A) I DO think that Gavin Hood's poorly recieved film hurts this one. "Another Wolverine movie? The first one sucked" will be uttered by many a common fan. B) It appears on the surface to be the least original and will be the easiest to skip, in between the final chapter in a Batman saga, Spider-Man and Superman reboots, and the Avengers.

Somewhat off topic tangent over.

 

[Hurm...]

Wolverine needs an awesome trailer, one with words popping out saying "From the Director of Black Swan" followed by Wolverine ripping s*** up. The contrast will be great and catch plenty of attention.

 

[spider-neil]

Wolverine needs an awesome trailer, one with words popping out saying "From the Director of Black Swan" followed by Wolverine ripping s*** up. The contrast will be great and catch plenty of attention.

black swan is hardly mainstream (amazing movie btw). the only thing that will save wolverine is an amazing trailer and out of this world WOM.
I would love the makers of that movie to go for a hard 'R' rating and go for the '300' crowd because a PG13 wolverine will please no one. it will be too soft for the older crowd and to violent for the younger crowd.

 

[Ajendo]

...and it will never happen.

Fox are going to make sure this film will be a pg13 because they want as many people to see it as possible, especially if this film comes out in 2012. With all the competition around, going for a an R rating means the wolverine is shining a massive light on one of their handicaps.

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

Jackman himself has stated that he wants an R-rated Wolverine film. Recently, he said that this new one is the film we've been waiting for.

 

[Ajendo]

I'll believe that when I here positive feedback upon the film's release.

However, what Jackman wants and says regarding the rating means absolutely jack crap. He wants an R rating as we all do but the producers and the studio are looking at financial return. In a crowded and competitive market they're not going to alienate a massive chunck of their target audience that will more than likely want to see the better and alternative movies anyway. Why would they shoot themselves in the foot? The idea is to get people to see the movie not turn them away and force them to see the competition by default. Cents make dollars and dollars makes profits.

 

[spider-neil]

300 should you can make a movie R rated and clean up at the box office.

 

[Ajendo]

Well at the very least, 300 wasn't part of a franchise prior to its release that had a wider-accommodating rating. It could afford to be R rated and simply hope for the best. TW is part of a series of films that are pg-13, there's no way they're all of a sudden going to alienate the core audience that probably gave the entire X-movies including that pos movie WXO the financial proof that it's ok to go ahead and make this movie by slapping a big, fat red R rating stamp on it...again, especially in the midst of what is essentially going to be an epic summer.

Slap an R rating on TW for a summer 2012 release, the 300 example will mean next to nothing. Spidey, Bats, Supes, Avengers and God knows what else all pg-13 and an R-rated wolvie is expected to clean up at the BO??? At the very least, it'll make a humble profit but nothing worthy of note.

 

[BattleCat]

It won't come anywhere near close to making what spiderman 3 made.