Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[Juan1193]

Spidey seems to be performing pretty average. Not great but definitely not horrible. With that in mind I predict a 2nd weekend of around 50-53 million or a 55-57% drop.

Should finish in the 315-325 range domestically with around a 2.7+ multiplier (aka a little above the MCU average)

 

[seriesofdreams]

Darn it. I know I should be saying that because you want Spidey to do great (he is), but at least 1 buffer week would've been nice before Apes and Dunkirk hit. I just hope this one makes at least $800m WW.

 

[Iceman]

The extra week would have been a nice cushion. I think if you have a 2 week gap competition starts to matter a lot less as you've already made such a huge chunk of your money.

 

[TheVileOne]

Originally it was supposed to come out on like July 28. Atomic Blonde and Emoji movie now have those dates. And then Dark Tower comes out the following week.

 

[Donald Thomas]

Yep.

Also, at a glance, it's first Monday hold % is better than GotG2 and slightly better than Wonder Woman's. (but yeah I know, they were not released in July, I was just making a note).

Aloha,
This is why I've been asking all Spidey fans who see the movie multiple times to space out their viewing. If you've seen the movie 3-4 times in the first week, then there will be a bigger drop in the weeks and months to come. Go once a week or more but don't crowd the numbers in the front, that doesn't help the films legs.Of course opening weekend is a must but then spread it out.
Spidey rules

 

[TheVileOne]

Aloha,
This is why I've been asking all Spidey fans who see the movie multiple times to space out their viewing. If you've seen the movie 3-4 times in the first week, then there will be a bigger drop in the weeks and months to come. Go once a week or more but don't crowd the numbers in the front, that doesn't help the films legs.Of course opening weekend is a must but then spread it out.
Spidey rules

It's not going to make that much of a difference

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

Spidey seems to be performing pretty average. Not great but definitely not horrible. With that in mind I predict a 2nd weekend of around 50-53 million or a 55-57% drop.

Should finish in the 315-325 range domestically with around a 2.7+ multiplier (aka a little above the MCU average)

Pretty average? The OW numbers were really good, the OS are great so far and the weekday numbers are slightly above what we saw with GOTG2 and WW. I wouldn't say that's pretty average. Even the drop predicted is standard for superhero movies. Perhaps that's what you meant? Either way, Sony has to be very happy with these numbers, all things considered.

 

[Skies]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-will-war-planet-apes-unseat-spider-man-homecoming/

BO going with slightly more pessimism than Deadline with $47M (-60%). And $54M for Apes.

 

[JKKS085]

I have been wrong before-lol.

However my 250 million point is that it's not roaring to 400 million-maybe 280 total

Definitely. However saying that it would have stopped making money after its first week end would've been as accurate as that 250M prediction and would've made the same point.

For now it is still on pace to do around 300M dom and wether it crawls to that milestone or gets past it will largely depend on how well it handles the upcoming competition.

In any case the bar for success for Homecoming was doing better and being more profitable than the "Amazing" series while re-building some goodwill towards the brand and improving prospects for upcoming instalments in the franchise which is exactly what it is doing right now. Just as a reminder it will be the first Spider-Man film to ever improve its domestic returns compared to its predecessor. Spider-Man 2 made less dom than Spider-Man, Spider-Man 3 made less than Spider-Man 2, TASM made less than Spider-Man 3 and finally TASM2 made less than TASM, Homecoming is the first movie to break this toxic trend.

 

[spiderman2]

It would be cool if the movie could do a billion but I know that is pretty unlikely. I am hoping we can get like 300 USA and 600 OS for 900 million. That would be like 100 million more then amazing Spider-Man 2 both OS and USA wise. I think that would be a really nice start.

 

[Iceman]

It would be cool if the movie could do a billion but I know that is pretty unlikely. I am hoping we can get like 300 USA and 600 OS for 900 million. That would be like 100 million more then amazing Spider-Man 2 both OS and USA wise. I think that would be a really nice start.

That would be great.

 

[Juan1193]

Pretty average? The OW numbers were really good, the OS are great so far and the weekday numbers are slightly above what we saw with GOTG2 and WW. I wouldn't say that's pretty average. Even the drop predicted is standard for superhero movies. Perhaps that's what you meant? Either way, Sony has to be very happy with these numbers, all things considered.

Yeah I meant standard and I was talking about domestic not overseas. Also Spidey has July weekdays which work much differently from May (GotG2) and early June (WW) weekdays. School is out and business on weekdays tend to be bigger in July.

Anyway Sony should definitely be happy with there numbers.

 

[gerrym51]

I must point out that-every prediction column had wonder woman doing the 'normal' second week drop and being down around 55-60 percent. It's only after it happened that they started questioning WW drops. Then they predicted normal 3rd weekend drops and it overperformed again.

the point is don't believe what the sites say Spider man will get until it happens.

Now Wonder Woman is probably unique but no prognosticator actually know 's for sure what Spidey will do.

 

[rayc1971]

Spidey seems to be performing pretty average. Not great but definitely not horrible. With that in mind I predict a 2nd weekend of around 50-53 million or a 55-57% drop.

Should finish in the 315-325 range domestically with around a 2.7+ multiplier (aka a little above the MCU average)

yeah about 325 range not gonna catch wonder woman but still a good start

 

[Tymminator]

I am not going to guess what legs it has until I see how it handles the second weekend, and I actually prefer to even see the third.

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

Yeah I meant standard and I was talking about domestic not overseas. Also Spidey has July weekdays which work much differently from May (GotG2) and early June (WW) weekdays. School is out and business on weekdays tend to be bigger in July.

Anyway Sony should definitely be happy with there numbers.

I wouldn't say July weekdays are all that different from June weekdays. Either way, no doubt that WW and GOTG benefit from being fresh properties whereas SMH has to contend with all the baggage that comes with being a reboot of a reboot, which makes its numbers more impressive, imo. Or at very least, the numbers for all 3 balance out to where they're equally impressive.

 

[gerrym51]

I wouldn't say July weekdays are all that different from June weekdays. Either way, no doubt that WW and GOTG benefit from being fresh properties whereas SMH has to contend with all the baggage that comes with being a reboot of a reboot, which makes its numbers more impressive, imo. Or at very least, the numbers for all 3 balance out to where they're equally impressive.

part of june-mostly first 10 days have some schools still in session-I SAID SOME schools in some states.

 

[spiderman2]

So just saw this. Sounds like the movie should be around 450-500 WW by the end of sunday depending on what kind of second weekend drop it has and how much it makes in some of the new markets were the movie is coming out. Movie dosnt came out in Japan in till august 11th and don't have a date yet for China. Sounds like at worst they think the movie will end up with a WW of 750 when all things are done.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...ll-top-450-million-this-weekend/#24334a203ea6

 

[Iceman]

Wouldn't expect any less than that.

 

[spiderman2]

Even in that link though I forgot to say it didn't say how much the movie made on wed though and I have still not seen what its wed number was.

 

[Arach Knight]

I believe that Spider-Man: Homecoming will earn between $780 and $820 million. MCU solo films seem to hover around the $700-800 million on the high end, and $500-600 million on the low end. Because this is a Spider-Man film, I'm confident that this film will place on the higher end of that spectrum.

Combined competition from "War of the Planet of the Apes" as well as "Dunkirk" will syphon away a bit of the film's momentum. Like most MCU movies, the box office will be front loaded, so I don't expect the movie to have legs once we reach August, which will be kicked off with the adaptation of Stephen King's Dark Tower.

Spider-Man: Homecoming will also teach Sony an important lesson about not fatiguing a franchise. Sony is betting on banking $1 billion because of Spider-Man's inclusion in the MCU, but will be disappointed to find that audiences will be a bit worn out by the back-to-back reboots. However, the film will allow Sony to finally capture some of the ever desired "cinematic universe" market that caused them to dump Andrew Garfield and the Amazing Spider-Man franchise despite its box office success.

 

[spiderman2]

I think the movie could do up to 900. The movie did 140 OS OW if it has a multiple of 2.75 that would be 385 plus what ever it does in China, Japan and the other few places were it has not came out yet. I think it does around 160 there so that would mean OS of 545 and then with a 2.75 multiple that would mean around a 322 USA to get the movie to end at 867 and I think that could maybe be low bollowing it a little bit.

 

[TheVileOne]

So just saw this. Sounds like the movie should be around 450-500 WW by the end of sunday depending on what kind of second weekend drop it has and how much it makes in some of the new markets were the movie is coming out. Movie dosnt came out in Japan in till august 11th and don't have a date yet for China. Sounds like at worst they think the movie will end up with a WW of 750 when all things are done.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...ll-top-450-million-this-weekend/#24334a203ea6

It should easily surpass $800 million worldwide at this point.

 

[TheVileOne]

I think the movie could do up to 900. The movie did 140 OS OW if it has a multiple of 2.75 that would be 385 plus what ever it does in China, Japan and the other few places were it has not came out yet. I think it does around 160 there so that would mean OS of 545 and then with a 2.75 multiple that would mean around a 322 USA to get the movie to end at 867 and I think that could maybe be low bollowing it a little bit.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 did about $506 million overseas by comparison.

 

[I Am The Knight]

This is on track to become the highest grossing reboot.