Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[NotNickFury]

Yeah, strange thing when summer blockbusters compete against each other and lead to audiences picking one or the other, thus affecting the box office totals for both.

Strange times indeed. I mean, you don't care about Apes...yet you brought it up?

Makes sense, I suppose.

 

[Juan1193]

Hard to say because the exchange rates have fallen since 2014, but a year in which a bad Spider-man film makes just over 700M WW, you would think that this film would easily be past 800 or 900M. WW won't get past 750M, so I think 800M is the floor for this film as it's going to have more of a 60-40 split between foreign and domestic. WW is nearly 50/50 split.

Umm Wonder Woman will indeed get past 750 WW... Have you been keeping up with her box office run? She still has Japan left to open in (currently at 369 INT) and 400 million DOM is a high possibility right now. 785-800 WW is her range.

As for Spidey, around 850 is where I see him ending up! He'll be the 2nd highest grossing CBM WW and the 4th highest grossing CBM domestic. JL will be #1 (assuming its decent).

 

[Iceman]

The sequel to Homecoming could see big bucks now that the negativity of the last decade will have been wiped clean.

 

[legendkillin]

The sequel to Homecoming could see big bucks now that the negaitivty of the last decade will have been wiped clean.

It is also the movie after Avengers 2019.

 

[seriesofdreams]

The sequel to Homecoming could see big bucks now that the negaitivty of the last decade will have been wiped clean.

Very safe to say that it has been. 15-20 minutes of Spidey alone in Civil War wiped out all of ASM2. Spider-Man is my favorite CB character, and I feel that love has been dormant since SM2. I left my theater smiling from ear-to-ear and felt nothing but joy.

 

[Iceman]

It is also the movie after Avengers 2019.

Good point. Could get a huge Iron Man 3 style boost if those IW films deliver.

Very safe to say that it has been. 15-20 minutes of Spidey alone in Civil War wiped out all of ASM2. Spider-Man is my favorite CB character, and I feel that love has been dormant since SM2. I left my theater smiling from ear-to-ear and felt nothing but joy.

Good to hear. It's very exciting for Spidey's future and the MCU's future if Sony can be kept under control.

 

[Tony Stark]

Umm Wonder Woman will indeed get past 750 WW... Have you been keeping up with her box office run? She still has Japan left to open in (currently at 369 INT) and 400 million DOM is a high possibility right now. 785-800 WW is her range.

As for Spidey, around 850 is where I see him ending up! He'll be the 2nd highest grossing CBM WW and the 4th highest grossing CBM domestic. JL will be #1 (assuming its decent).

It's not getting to 800m, SMH will effect WW there. Spider-man is huge in Japan.

 

[Juan1193]

It's not getting to 800m, SMH will effect WW there. Spider-man is huge in Japan.

There's a two week gap between the two and Japan loves strong female characters so I wouldn't rule 800 out so boldly. Especially not when it's looking like Spiderman wont even effect WW domestically. Japan could follow suit.

850 is my prediction for Spidey...

 

[fancyarcher]

RTH of BOT has weighed in.

Couple hours ago had SMH 46 with top end 48.5.

It could also go up to 50 million at this rate. Depending on how Saturday and Sunday play, 125m is very much possible.

 

[Ultraman]

This film will do well, everyone can relax. The box office returns aren't going to Marvel Studios so there's no need to hope for a billion.

 

[Tony Stark]

There's a two week gap between the two and Japan loves strong female characters so I wouldn't rule 800 out so boldly. Especially not when it's looking like Spiderman wont even effect WW domestically. Japan could follow suit.

850 is my prediction for Spidey...

850 might be right for Spidey. 800 will not happen for WW, not with a 50/50 foreign domestic split. 780 is possible. That's a great number, WW was never going to perform well overseas. Spider-man has the potential for 900M or better, especially now that it looks like it could land 130M opening. Big question is how well it can hold domestically. It's got much stronger competition domestically than WW, but it's going to clean house internationally. I think it's got a legit shot for 550M international.

 

[Kreem Pi]

This film will do well, everyone can relax. The box office returns aren't going to Marvel Studios so there's no need to hope for a billion.

Unlike you, most of us don't have a financial stake in Disney. But a stake in seeing our favorite characters do well.

 

[Tony Stark]

RTH of BOT has weighed in.



It could also go up to 50 million at this rate. Depending on how Saturday and Sunday play, 125m is very much possible.

I remember all the talk of "franchise fatigue" when TASM2 under performed. The fact is that folks were desperate for a good Spider-Man movie. To put things in perspective, my kids were 3 and 5 at the time Spider-Man 2 came out. They're now 15 and 18, that's how long it's been since people have gone without a good Spider-Man movie!

People don't care about how many reboots you do, or how many different actors, they just want a good freakin' movies. We probably should have known this already with how many Bond films there have been some good, some bad, with 6 different actors, some were box office gold, others not so much. The ones that performed better at the box office were generally the ones people liked better, go figure!

I think there will be a huge boost to this, because clearly people are connecting with Tom Holland as Spidey, the first guy to really get the Peter and Spidey parts both down.

 

[spiderman2]

The sequel to Homecoming could see big bucks now that the negativity of the last decade will have been wiped clean.

Yeah if the next Spider-Man movie is also good/great it is a lock for like 1.5 billion I think.

I remember all the talk of "franchise fatigue" when TASM2 under performed. The fact is that folks were desperate for a good Spider-Man movie. To put things in perspective, my kids were 3 and 5 at the time Spider-Man 2 came out. They're now 15 and 18, that's how long it's been since people have gone without a good Spider-Man movie!

People don't care about how many reboots you do, or how many different actors, they just want a good freakin' movies. We probably should have known this already with how many Bond films there have been some good, some bad, with 6 different actors, some were box office gold, others not so much. The ones that performed better at the box office were generally the ones people liked better, go figure!

I think there will be a huge boost to this, because clearly people are connecting with Tom Holland as Spidey, the first guy to really get the Peter and Spidey parts both down.

Yeah if franchise fatigue was really a thing you wouldn't have like 25 bond movies has people would be sick of it and it wouldn't even like be making a profit any more. If it was really a issue you wouldn't have 8 going to be 9 Fast and the feaours movies in a few years. The thing was people didn't want a reboot after Spider-Man 3 they wanted Spider-Man 4 instead and then amazing Spider-Man didn't do any thing to win people over about it being a reboot and then amazing Spider-Man 2 made people like hardly interested in Spider-Man movie any more.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/07/spider-man-homecoming-box-office-opening-1202124834/

5th Update, Friday 11:01 PM: Spider-Man: Homecoming is poised to become the second-highest domestic opening ever for Sony with a three-day that’s between $115M-$119.6M per industry estimates. That’s also the second-best stateside start for the webslinger superhero in his six title canon.

If Homecoming‘s momentum keeps up, it will rank under Spider-Man 3‘s $151.1M opening and above the original 2002 title which solidified the first weekend of May as the start of summer with a FSS of $114.8M.

Worst-case scenario: Homecoming comes within dollars of the 2002 title with $113M by Sunday, in which case it’s the third-best domestic start for both Sony and Spider-Man, and that’s nothing to complain about. Homecoming‘s Friday, including $15.4M from Thursday night shows, is looking at an opening day’s take between $48M-$49M.

Tonight, Homecoming earned a solid A CinemaScore, the best grade ever for a Spider-Man title (its previous highs being A-s for Spider-Man 1 & 2 and The Amazing Spider-Man) and the 11th A grade in the Feige-lead Marvel Cinematic Universe, the most recent one being for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

1). Spider-Man: Homecoming (SONY/MARVEL), 4,348 theaters / $48M-49M Fri. (includes $15.4M previews) / 3-day cume: $116M-$119.6M /Wk 2

 

[Mysteryman]

http://deadline.com/2017/07/spider-man-homecoming-box-office-opening-1202124834/

Good enough.

 

[iEquinox]

http://deadline.com/2017/07/spider-man-homecoming-box-office-opening-1202124834/

So, deadline is now predicting a $48-49M OD, but they still seem to be trying not to go too high. When they put out their early numbers, they were using a 2.5x internal multiplier to calculate final weekend gross.

2.5* 48-49 = $120-123M, but they're now using a lower internal multiplier, while it would actually make sense if the multiplier got slightly bigger after the Friday number got bigger. Why? Because a bigger Friday number means Previews take up a smaller percentage of opening day, so it doesn't have to increase as much from the true Friday(Friday without previews) on Saturday to get the same internal multiplier.

Seems like it still has a good shot at $120M+ but deadline wants to stay slightly conservative on their estimates just in case it falls short of that.

 

[FunkMiller]

850 might be right for Spidey. 800 will not happen for WW, not with a 50/50 foreign domestic split. 780 is possible. That's a great number, WW was never going to perform well overseas..

I wouldn't be too sure of that, myself. The current trajectory the film has suggests 800 is a distinct possibility. It has incredible legs (no pun intended). I've been watching WW's box office closely, and it's confounded pretty much everyone's predictions from the get go. Legitimately an 'important' film for the comic book genre.

Homecoming will make more in the end though, because it's Spider-man, and its a very good Spider-man film.

 

[GeckoMoria]

If WW is an "important film for the genre" then Guardians with d-listers is the SECOND COMING for the genre. let's not exaggerate. It's a good film and it's a good sign for female heroines. That's it.

 

[FunkMiller]

If WW is an "important film for the genre" then Guardians with d-listers is the SECOND COMING for the genre. let's not exaggerate. It's a good film and it's a good sign for female heroines. That's it.

No exaggeration. It's a film that finally shows that a strong female protagonist can lead a very successful comic book movie, after years of poor representation. It's one of the reasons it's done so well.

 

[GeckoMoria]

I was talking in terms of the actual movie. It wasn't a game-changer. With that mentality we can call Black panther "game-changer" before even seeing the film...

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

With that mentality we can call Black panther "game-changer" before even seeing the film...

It is.

 

[FunkMiller]

I was talking in terms of the actual movie. It wasn't a game-changer. With that mentality we can call Black panther "game-changer" before even seeing the film...

It really was. All the reaction to it proves this. You can only call something a game changer after it's actually come out, and it can be judged on its merits. Your Black Panther comparison therefore doesn't apply, because we can't judge it yet.
Anyway, my point was that WW certainly - and rightly - stands a great chance of hitting 800 million. It'll hold well against Homecoming over the next week. I can see it ending up within 50 million of Spider-man's haul, which would be marvellous, considering how poor the DCEU has been up until now.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Still hoping SMH can play out like a popular family movie over the weekend and cross 125 m OW.

 

[GeckoMoria]

It really was. All the reaction to it proves this. You can only call something a game changer after it's actually come out, and it can be judged on its merits. Your Black Panther comparison therefore doesn't apply, because we can't judge it yet.
Anyway, my point was that WW certainly - and rightly - stands a great chance of hitting 800 million. It'll hold well against Homecoming over the next week. I can see it ending up within 50 million of Spider-man's haul, which would be marvellous, considering how poor the DCEU has been up until now.

No, it really issn't because the movie doesn't do anything unique or inventive in terms of plot or characters. Does that make it bad? No, but it's not a gamechanger. It's a good film. If we are going by box office then transformers is also a game-change. if you are going by quality, it really isn't.