Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Playco Armboy]

I follow it pretty closely actually. It's a bit of a hobby of mine. I'm not sure why you assume I don't simply because my own personal estimate is more on the conservative side.

Because everything you've posted suggests you have no idea what you're talking about, lmao.

It reminds me of when there's a disagreement over a boxing decision and one side refers to the other as being a "casual" even when said casual is in 100% agreement with many other boxing experts.

This stuff is at least as much art as it is science, and my gut tells me that 160 million is overly optimistic. Time will tell.

Hollywood Reporter is saying $120+ million as of recent, BoxOfficePro is sticking with their $160 million opening (and they've never been less than 90% of their forecast apart from Age of Ultron), daily tracking from BoxOfficeTheory has insiders indicating a $19m Thursday which using an internal multiplier points to $150+ million, etc.

Your gut feeling means nothing. This isn't a Solo situation where tracking just kept dropping and dropping.

 

[Iceman]

I'm using Doctor Strange as kind of my baseline. Doctor Strange plus a pinch of Black Panther = Captain Marvel.

Also I think a goal of 1 dollar plus 45 cents is an extremely realistic goal for CM's WW take Even more so the 90 mill. I think it will make that quite easily.

Haha. I reckon DS2 is in for a big boost after his IW showing. I get the feeling awareness is quite a bit higher for CM so far but that’s anecdotal I guess. Looking forward to it breaking that $1.45 mark though.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Man next week can't come soon enough. I just can't wait for this movie to come out and crush at the BO just to shut all the haters and trolls up who want it to flop. It feels like its been a long time coming anyways, and its going to be so satisfying and glorious all at the same time.

 

[Mysteryman]

You and me both.
I know that this is going to hit big and I just can't wait for it to get here.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Me three, we're getting freaking skrulls on screen! How can anyone be mad at that!?

This is an age of wonders we live and everyone's mad... paraphrased from Robert Myer Burnett

 

[Smurphftw]

Because everything you've posted suggests you have no idea what you're talking about, lmao.



Hollywood Reporter is saying $120+ million as of recent, BoxOfficePro is sticking with their $160 million opening (and they've never been less than 90% of their forecast apart from Age of Ultron), daily tracking from BoxOfficeTheory has insiders indicating a $19m Thursday which using an internal multiplier points to $150+ million, etc.

Your gut feeling means nothing. This isn't a Solo situation where tracking just kept dropping and dropping.

I'm not sure why you feel the insults are necessary. It's obvious I have interest otherwise I woudn't be here in this thread(and all the other box office prediction threads that I have frequented). In fact the way I found SHH was I was searching for box office info on "The Avengers" and found this place to be an excellent resource.

You made a snap judgement based on one post where my prediction based on all the same info that you read, was different than yours. Did you read the link of the article I posted? Does he not know what he is talking about too? Or did he just come to a different conclusion while looking at all the same info.

Captain Marvel: Full box office projections

Unless you yourself have never made an incorrect box office prediction, you should probably tone it down a bit.

 

[Kuwolski]

Based on projections I'd be shocked if the current pacing that insiders are tracking falls off towards 90 m. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up at 115-120 m if these boycotts get traction and the critic reviews are bad, but still no drop off by 60 million + OW.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Just saw the collider heroes spoiler review of infinity war again and in honor of Jon Schnepp...200 million opening let's go! That was his opening weekend for CM off IW hype

 

[Smurphftw]

Haha. I reckon DS2 is in for a big boost after his IW showing. I get the feeling awareness is quite a bit higher for CM so far but that’s anecdotal I guess. Looking forward to it breaking that $1.45 mark though.

I personally find it much easier to correctly predict the box office numbers for sequels for obvious reasons.

 

[Iceman]

I personally find it much easier to correctly predict the box office numbers for sequels for obvious reasons.

Yeah, it’s usually a bit easier when you have a baseline and frame of reference. So when CM2 rolls around I expect you to stick your neck out with something more daring like $6.48 WW.

 

[Iceman]

Based on projections I'd be shocked if the current pacing that insiders are tracking falls off towards 90 m. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up at 115-120 m if these boycotts get traction and the critic reviews are bad, but still no drop off by 60 million + OW.

Boycotts, schmoycotts. Most of the people who join a boycott are people who had a fair chance of not seeing it anyway, and the ones that do fall into that category I believe are made up for by the boost in public awareness a boycott creates. TFA the no.1 domestic film had the most high profile boycott I remember, and you know for sure that many who are wanting CM to fail also wanted BP to fail.

 

[Smurphftw]

Boycotts, schmoycotts. Most of the people who join a boycott are people who had a fair chance of not seeing it anyway, and the ones that do fall into that category I believe are made up for by the boost in public awareness a boycott creates. TFA the no.1 domestic film had the most high profile boycott I remember, and you know for sure that many who are wanting CM to fail also wanted BP to fail.

Not to get too political in here but it reminds me a little of when Obama made his "clings to guns and religion" comment. The ones who got the most upset were the ones who were never going to vote for him anyway.

I think its similar to Brie Larson's comments in that the ones that got the most bent out of shape were unlikely to ever see it in the first place, so I think you're right about that.

Regardless we'll have a good idea a week from now whether or not the so called boycott had a real effect or not.

 

[Kuwolski]

Boycotts, schmoycotts. Most of the people who join a boycott are people who had a fair chance of not seeing it anyway, and the ones that do fall into that category I believe are made up for by the boost in public awareness a boycott creates. TFA the no.1 domestic film had the most high profile boycott I remember, and you know for sure that many who are wanting CM to fail also wanted BP to fail.

I'm honestly not sold that these people will have any significant impact on the success or failure of the film. The fear and/or anger they've demonstrated towards it's potential success just awakened me to how big the film was in the consciousness to begin with.

 

[Mysteryman]

Me three, we're getting freaking skrulls on screen! How can anyone be mad at that!?

This is an age of wonders we live and everyone's mad... paraphrased from Robert Myer Burnett

The Skrulls do look cool and their faces are surprisingly smooth.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Captain Marvel IMAX Presales Tracking Ahead Of Wonder Woman, Thor 3

 

[harlequinade]

The presales for this are insane, crossing Black Panther is a huge deal

 

[Fallen]

 

[Shuri]

I really hope CM makes it, I want the haters to be shut up once and for all...but who am I kidding, the narrative will just change to "CM is overrated" like it did with Black panther.

 

[warhorse78]

I really hope CM makes it, I want the haters to be shut up once and for all...but who am I kidding, the narrative will just change to "CM is overrated" like it did with Black panther.

Thing is, in this day and age, a movie could be making over a billion at the box office, and still be considered a flop. The Last Jedi is good measure of that. Main reason being, because the box office was mostly in international markets, and the studios don't get as big of a cut as they would in the states. And, there have been rumors that Disney artificially inflated the domestic box office with their own money for bragging rights, but because it was their money they used to inflate TLJ box office, it's still a loss for them.

As for Black Panther. I loved the movie, and I would rather have him be the new face of Marvel, not Captain Marvel like the CEO's insist, but I also know that many very wealthy Black leaders were funding entire schools and busing them to the theaters to go see this movie because of it's importance in the Black community. Combined with the fact he had his first appearance in CA: Civil War, which it's box office was helped largely due to the real face of the MCU, Iron-Man, his character was already exposed to millions of people, and they liked what they saw and wanted more. Captain Marvel has none of this going for it. It's why I think the official box office, while is no flop, just a decent return on investment, will be around Ant-Man's boxoffice. Anything over that, I am going to assume Disney is artificially inflating the box office for bragging rights. :/

 

[flickchick85]

It's why I think the official box office, while is no flop, just a decent return on investment, will be around Ant-Man's boxoffice. Anything over that, I am going to assume Disney is artificially inflating the box office for bragging rights. :/

“If reality doesn’t affirm my bias, then it must be a conspiracy.”

By all means, don’t even entertain the notion that more people could be interested in this movie than you think.

 

[harlequinade]

Thing is, in this day and age, a movie could be making over a billion at the box office, and still be considered a flop. The Last Jedi is good measure of that. Main reason being, because the box office was mostly in international markets, and the studios don't get as big of a cut as they would in the states. And, there have been rumors that Disney artificially inflated the domestic box office with their own money for bragging rights, but because it was their money they used to inflate TLJ box office, it's still a loss for them.

As for Black Panther. I loved the movie, and I would rather have him be the new face of Marvel, not Captain Marvel like the CEO's insist, but I also know that many very wealthy Black leaders were funding entire schools and busing them to the theaters to go see this movie because of it's importance in the Black community. Combined with the fact he had his first appearance in CA: Civil War, which it's box office was helped largely due to the real face of the MCU, Iron-Man, his character was already exposed to millions of people, and they liked what they saw and wanted more. Captain Marvel has none of this going for it. It's why I think the official box office, while is no flop, just a decent return on investment, will be around Ant-Man's boxoffice. Anything over that, I am going to assume Disney is artificially inflating the box office for bragging rights. :/

hahahahaahahahahaha

oh my God

CM has the appeal to women by the way. But I'm sure you don't care about that

 

[Abudefduf]

EDIT: sorry @warhorse78 , but I think I'm going to TiVo that.

 

[Zyraquis]

We have a term for that in the financial world it’s called cooking the books. Someone should call the IRS. If it’s just a wanton accusation, we also have a term for it, it’s called defamation.

 

[Micromind]

I'm expecting CM to have a huge opening week.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I really hope CM makes it, I want the haters to be shut up once and for all...but who am I kidding, the narrative will just change to "CM is overrated" like it did with Black panther.

They'll say that if it is a big success, but you'll know they will actually be really bitter about it.