Thing is, in this day and age, a movie could be making over a billion at the box office, and still be considered a flop. The Last Jedi is good measure of that. Main reason being, because the box office was mostly in international markets, and the studios don't get as big of a cut as they would in the states. And, there have been rumors that Disney artificially inflated the domestic box office with their own money for bragging rights, but because it was their money they used to inflate TLJ box office, it's still a loss for them.
As for Black Panther. I loved the movie, and I would rather have him be the new face of Marvel, not Captain Marvel like the CEO's insist, but I also know that many very wealthy Black leaders were funding entire schools and busing them to the theaters to go see this movie because of it's importance in the Black community. Combined with the fact he had his first appearance in CA: Civil War, which it's box office was helped largely due to the real face of the MCU, Iron-Man, his character was already exposed to millions of people, and they liked what they saw and wanted more. Captain Marvel has none of this going for it. It's why I think the official box office, while is no flop, just a decent return on investment, will be around Ant-Man's boxoffice. Anything over that, I am going to assume Disney is artificially inflating the box office for bragging rights. :/
