Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[flickchick85]

I guess that explains why there's 10+ year old troll accounts

Exactamundo.

 

[Silver Surfer]

According to BOT, pre-sales have drastically gained momentum, as of right now it is slightly ahead of where BP was in pre-sales at this juncture. The big cheese number cruncher over there is saying 150m is practically a lock, can go much higher.

 

[Mysteryman]

Best news I have heard all day!

 

[Zyraquis]

May turn out to be an Aquaman case — okay critical reviews great BO. For a big budget film that’s way better than other way around.

 

[ironman_rick]

Holy cow.....$150M OW ? thats awesome. Should then have no problem getting to $400 Domestic. Should also clear $1B WW fairly easy.

 

[Shuri]

May turn out to be an Aquaman case — okay critical reviews great BO. For a big budget film that’s way better than other way around.

From what I've seen, the reviews might be better than okay.

 

[Kuwolski]

Are reviews not that solid? I was hoping the film would do really well critically. I saw some good things but I am waiting for consensus.

Anyway, Surfer already made my point, the film seems to be gathering momentum and it potentially could do better then even the most optimistic projections put out there. Obviously reviews can sway this so hopefully it ends.up good. The appetite is definitely there.

 

[Xeno]

Are reviews not that solid? I was hoping the film would do really well critically. I saw some good things but I am waiting for consensus.

Anyway, Surfer already made my point, the film seems to be gathering momentum and it potentially could do better then even the most optimistic projections put out there. Obviously reviews can sway this so hopefully it ends.up good. The appetite is definitely there.

Actually, we have only the vaguest of ideas what the reviews will be like. People are trying to draw conclusions about the general trend amongst those who say that they have seen the film on Twitter. However, no reviews have been posted yet due to the embargo, and only some of the people tweeting are actually critics.

From what I've read, most of the sentiment on Twitter has been positive. There have been a few tweets from those who liked it but weren't blown away, a couple who expressed reservations, and only one who outright slammed it (on feminist grounds). We are only going to hear from geek sites, niche sites and a few industry publications on Twitter, however. That makes it hard to get a real idea of what the overall crtics' response to the film will be.

 

[Iceman]

According to BOT, pre-sales have drastically gained momentum, as of right now it is slightly ahead of where BP was in pre-sales at this juncture. The big cheese number cruncher over there is saying 150m is practically a lock, can go much higher.

$150m would be amazing. Presales on that level are a great sign of course.

 

[Iceman]

Holy cow.....$150M OW ? thats awesome. Should then have no problem getting to $400 Domestic. Should also clear $1B WW fairly easy.

Yeah, a $150m opening would certainly bring $400 domestic into play.

 

[HammerDown]

Very strong RT rating. People will pay little to no attention to the average score.
This will propel the movie even further. It will do great at the BO. I had it a +700M, it might turn in way more than that estimate.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

‘Captain Marvel’ To Thaw Winter Box Office Deep Freeze With $350M+ Global Warming

The domestic comp to last year has been off by as much as 26% and that’s largely because we’re comparing this year to a Black Panther-fueled winter a year ago. Well, business is about to get better for 2019 as Disney’s Captain Marvel, the first Marvel movie since July’s Ant-Man and the Wasp is hoping to rocket-charge to a $150M start in U.S./Canada and a $350M worldwide opening, which would be higher than DC’s Wonder Woman ($228.3M), Justice League ($278.8M), and Fox/Marvel’s Deadpool 2 ($300.4M), and just under Black Panther‘s WW first frame of $371.4M. What’s giving further juice to the lofty Captain Marvel stateside forecast is that we’re hearing the pic’s advance ticket sales are beating that of last April’s Avengers: Infinity War. After a slew of superheros vanished into thin air in that movie, fans can’t wait to see Captain Marvel as it’s the appetizer and bridge to next month’s Avengers: End Game.

Yes, tracking does show a $120M-$140M start for the Brie Larson-Samuel L. Jackson movie here (their third team-up onscreen after Kong: Skull Island and Larson’s directorial Unicorn Store) in the U.S at 4,200 theaters, but industry projection believe that the marketplace is just salivating for a great superhero five-quad movie. It’s just been too long. Should Captain Marvel fall short of $150M, yet north of $100M, she’ll still be fine, and know that tracking isn’t exact for any movie once it’s projected past the century mark. Captain Marvel is already 86% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes from 93 reviews and buzz has been over the moon since screenings and the Hollywood world premiere last night. Of Captain Marvel‘s domestic theater count, 3,000 will be 3D locations and she’ll have the full suite of Imax’s 400 hubs, 750+ PLF screens, and 250 D-Box/4D locations. Line-up or go on-line to buy your tickets because previews start at 6pm Thursday in U.S./Canada. Captain Marvel will also have the widest Imax opening of all time on 1,360 screens worldwide, particularly boosted by China. Along with the Middle Kingdom, 3D and PLF screenings will be a major draw in markets like the UK, Korea, Russia, Mexico and Brazil.

In regards to the rest of the world, Captain Marvel takes off tomorrow in majors that include France, Italy and Korea. From there, Carol Danvers adds Germany, Russia, Brazil and Australia on Thursday and essentially all other markets, including the UK, Spain, Mexico and China, on Friday (but not Japan which goes March 15). Industry sources are pegging the offshore opening at anywhere from $180M-$200M with some seeing it at $210M+; a lot of that depends on China. Ant-Man And The Wasp opened at $177M offshoore in like-for-likes and at current rates last July with domestic. After the holiday heft of DC’s Aquaman, nothing has energized fanboys and girls since.

Other overseas opening comps from the Marvel stable include Ant-Man ($115M at today’s rates), Doctor Strange (which France’s TF1 aired on Sunday night, winning the evening) which bowed to $156M in like-for-likes in 2016, and even Black Panther($228M like-for-like launch).

Wonder Woman is also a standout given both pics are led by a female character and that they each have a period setting; the DC title set during WWII and Captain Marvel during 1990s America. Wonder Woman opened to $125M (unadjusted) in 55 markets that did not include France, Germany, Spain, Japan and others. She finaled at $409M overseas, led by China, Brazil, the UK, Australia and Mexico. Latin America over indexes for DC while it also leans to Marvel. Asia, likewise, is a big Marvel brand region, although we’re cautioned that Captain Marvel could face some softer play than previous pics — sad to say, but that’s given the female protagonist and the period setting.

Regardless, China tracking is hot for Carol Danvers. Pre-sales there at the last count we’ve heard have already reached around $5M which is bigger than Venom, Aquaman, Captain America: Civil War and all other superhero films save Avengers: Infinity War at the same point. Whereas Wonder Woman finaled at $90.5M in the Middle Kingdom, Captain Marvel is looking at upwards of $85M for just the opening three-day (some industry sources are seeing it lower, around $60M). There is no Douban score yet. Let’s not forget that whichever way domestic reviews go, Venom opened to $107.6M in China.

Turning back to Marvel comps, Doctor Strange’s ultimate offshore cume was $444M with strong participation from China ($112M). After the Middle Kingdom, the biggest markets on the Benedict Cumberbatch standalone were Korea, the UK, Brazil and Russia.

More recently, Spider-Man: Homecoming, also one worth looking at, snared $140.5M (unadjusted) at open in 56 markets which did not include China, Japan, France, Germany and Spain making this a difficult apples-to-apples comparison. Outside Venom, this is the highest of the comps in China where it finaled at $116M after a $69M bow. The rest of the ultimate Top 5 was Korea, the UK, Brazil and Mexico.

 

[Smurphftw]

It's looking more and more like I low-balled this movie(voted 700 million+), especially OW Domestic where I had it in the 100 millionish range.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

It's looking more and more like I low-balled this movie(voted 700 million+), especially OW Domestic where I had it in the 100 millionish range.

Hey I voted for only $600M back in March and am now wishing I'd gone to at least $700M. Think I may start waiting to vote until either filming has wrapped or the first trailer has dropped.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I voted 800 million

 

[Silver Surfer]

I voted 600m.... it's gonna make more than that in US and China alone...

If Deadline is predicting 150m, then we're in for bigger numbers, they always go conservative with their tracking.

 

[Mysteryman]

I voted 800 million

At this point, 800 million is a safe bet.
Personally, I hope it does better than that.

 

[Iceman]

I voted 600m.... it's gonna make more than that in US and China alone...

If Deadline is predicting 150m, then we're in for bigger numbers, they always go conservative with their tracking.

We're into glorious territory lol. I can't wait for these numbers to get firmer/tighter as we get closer.

 

[shinlyle]

I JUST voted, and I bet on 800 million. I hope to be wrong. a $150 million opening weekend will be killer! I'm just hoping to enjoy the film. If it makes mad bank, that's just a bonus.

 

[Shuri]

I voted 900m.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

'Captain Marvel' Top Fandango Preseller Since 'Avengers: Infinity War'

Yep this movie is going to make a lot of money this weekend.

 

[metaphysician]

Then why is The Last Jedi considered a box office failure even though it made a lot of money at the box office?

Well, one, it obviously wasn't a box office failure. It made tons of money.

Two, why is its performance still ominous? Because it suffered a huge drop from the prior movie, and in particular had much much worse legs suggesting poor word of mouth. That suggests it made its absurd huge money off of hype from the prior movie, and then did. . . *something*. . . to leave the audience unsatisfied and not returning for umpteen repeat viewings. Which is exactly what you *don't* want to see if you plan on making money years into the future.

( Oh, and what would that be? I'll tell you what it wasn't: having a diverse cast with numerous female and minority characters. TFA and Rogue One both had that, and did fine. Maybe, just maybe, it had something to do with the plot. Like how every one of those diverse cast of heroes failed, utterly, typically by trying to actually act heroic. Like how the only person in the whole movie to get what they sought was the white male school shooter villain, who succeeded in taking over the Basically-Neonazis. I actually find it horribly bemusing that the internet bigots hate TLJ, when Rian Johnson basically made close to the perfect bit of pro-Nazi propaganda. . . )

 

[Smurphftw]

Well, one, it obviously wasn't a box office failure. It made tons of money.

Two, why is its performance still ominous? Because it suffered a huge drop from the prior movie, and in particular had much much worse legs suggesting poor word of mouth. That suggests it made its absurd huge money off of hype from the prior movie, and then did. . . *something*. . . to leave the audience unsatisfied and not returning for umpteen repeat viewings. Which is exactly what you *don't* want to see if you plan on making money years into the future.

( Oh, and what would that be? I'll tell you what it wasn't: having a diverse cast with numerous female and minority characters. TFA and Rogue One both had that, and did fine. Maybe, just maybe, it had something to do with the plot. Like how every one of those diverse cast of heroes failed, utterly, typically by trying to actually act heroic. Like how the only person in the whole movie to get what they sought was the white male school shooter villain, who succeeded in taking over the Basically-Neonazis. I actually find it horribly bemusing that the internet bigots hate TLJ, when Rian Johnson basically made close to the perfect bit of pro-Nazi propaganda. . . )

I don't think you can use TLJ's drop off from TFA as a sign of ominousness because both ESB and AoTC had similar drop offs when compared to their predecessors.

We aren't really going to know what lasting damage TLJ did to Star Wars(if any) until Ep IX is released and we see how that one performs compared to RoTJ and RoTS, both of which performed slightly better than the movie that preceded it.

 

[Zarex]

Empire suffered an equally massive BO drop off from Star Wars. The only ominous warning future filmmakers should learn is that it is super difficult to crack $1billion at the domestic BO.

 

[Kuwolski]

The reviews at this point are indeed solid, but I do wonder how that 7 avg. is going to affect the performance after this opening weekend? It didn't hurt the Deadpool films too much, but those films offer a change of pace and bring in different demos then other more standard films in the genre.

I think it needed to be in the nineties and have a higher avg to be another Black Panther-like success for Marvel. The advance tickets show the potential was there, although I realize I could be getting ahead of myself a bit, we'll see.