Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Jh7058622]

I wonder if this will be extremely front loaded you know with Larson promoting kickstarters for underprivileged girls (even though she could have founded one at least by herself but that's another story) to see her movie and all I wonder how it will drop. I'm not really seeing a lot of "can't wait to see it agains" like Black Panther or even Aquaman from critics so I wonder how it will play out for fans.

 

[jolldan]

Hard one to judge this, because of course it being a Marvel film the opening weeks are always pretty good. Im gonna low ball at $700 million and hope im wrong.

I just want it to outgross Wonder Woman

Why?

 

[Jh7058622]

That's what I don't get some of the same people saying the Alita challenge is pitting women against each other are actively trying to make it as if CM needs to "win" against WW at the box office.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

Why?

I don't like DC... So I want Marvel stuff to do better. Nothing against them just always been a Marvel Zombie

 

[I Am The Knight]

It definitely has a shot... We all know what will happen if it doesn't.

What will happen if it doesn't?

 

[Silver Surfer]

Those Chinese numbers are crazy high, and with ascending tracking number domestically, 1b is well within reach.

 

[Holy Slapper]

When do they give the Cinemascore?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Usually Saturdays I think.

 

[Iceman]

In that case $600m+ just from US and China looking likely.

 

[FlareKnight]

I think it'll hit in the 700 million range. A strong China run will help. But don't feel as if there is the 900 million plus hype needed to go that high. It should be strong and should be successful. Wouldn't be shocked if we hit the 800 million range and I was off there.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Those Chinese numbers are crazy high, and with ascending tracking number domestically, 1b is well within reach.

I don't know much about the Chinese box office. How accurate are these projections, generally speaking?

 

[Silver Surfer]

I don't know much about the Chinese box office. How accurate are these projections, generally speaking?

I'm not much of an expert in Chinese boxoffice, but from what I can tell from BoT, they are usually more accurate than NA projections.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I've got a bet with a bud. $800M over/under total WW gross.

I'm over.

 

[Silver Surfer]

The bean counters at BOT through equations and formulas that I can't even begin to understand are saying its gonna have a 18-21m Thursday preview number.

An Update to this, now they are projecting the preview number to be higher than even the high end of the earlier estimate.

 

[Mysteryman]

What is the high end estimate now?

 

[Silver Surfer]

What is the high end estimate now?

North of 22-23m.

 

[flickchick85]

Usually Saturdays I think.

Sometimes it'll come out Friday evening, I believe. But yeah, they do the polling all day Friday. I got polled by them after a 1 or 2pm show of Wonder Woman on Friday.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Captain Marvel Australia: A$1.47mn ($1.04mn) Wednesday opening. Black Panther on Valentines day grossed A$1.15mn ($0.9mn).

 

[Fallen]

 

[Hammer!]

Wow! 150 million would be insane!

 

[Mysteryman]

I will take that estimate.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I want that March OW record.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I'd settle for it getting into the top-3 all-time March OWs. It'd need to make more than $152 million to displace The Hunger Games at #3. Not quite sure it'll get to $166M of BvS.

 

[Zyraquis]

With that opening even leg is as short as BVS it will probably break 800m+ (BVS tally) because China is strong and looks like many other markets in the world too. By chance if the leg is longer than BVS 800m+ is a pretty much a shoo in. Not too shabby.

 

[dyl1dyl]

Early numbers around the world are coming in and are extremely positive. at this rate, looks like it will beat 1 bil with ease. In fact, might challenge aquaman and even black panther's totals