Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Ctfxcwatcher]

My theater showing is the biggest it's been since IW came out. I didn't expect it to be this busy. Very interesting weekend coming up.

 

[flickchick85]

That's a good theory if it wasn't for IW.

IW offered more spectacle, though. Civil War had some cool set-pieces, but was still more low-key, and like another poster said, still somehow felt darker. Like, it's much less pleasant to watch your heroes fall apart from within than to slowly band back together to take on a seemingly unbeatable force, even if they "lose" at the end. The getting there was still an epic ride you want to re-watch multiple times, ya know? I don't know if I'm explaining this well, lol.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

8.9 on Maoyan!

That sounds great.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

My theater showing is the biggest it's been since IW came out. I didn't expect it to be this busy. Very interesting weekend coming up.

Same for me!

 

[Hammer!]

Yeah I’m definitely in the camp this makes a billion now given these numbers. People are hungry for a big, fun, quality blockbuster movie. It’s been awhile.

 

[Zyraquis]

I think the marketing worked too despite what some have said.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think the marketing worked too despite what some have said.

A completely unknown character to the public, who has never appeared on screen before is about to make a billion dollars in her debut appearance.... Yeah I think it's safe to say the marketing "worked".

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I should have taken a picture of the crowd waiting to watch this. It was unreal.

 

[roxas99]

I should have taken a picture of the crowd waiting to watch this. It was unreal.

but..but...I thought the RT trolls told me that the movie only had a low 25 “want to see” score lol

 

[Iceman]

It could, but I think it will have a much more uplifting ending, since it's capping off the first 3 phases and their big picture story - basically it should be the ending some unsuspecting moviegoers were hoping for in Infinity War before they realized that it was basically a "Part 1."

I hope the ending can still manage to be very uplifting even if someone major dies. I think that’s more likely the more time is left in the film after the death.

 

[Iceman]

8.9 on Maoyan!

We are in for big bucks now!

 

[flickchick85]

I hope the ending can still manage to be very uplifting even if someone major dies. I think that’s more likely the more time is left in the film after the death.

Exactly. If someone dies, I'm sure they'll have a funeral or a scene honoring the fallen or whatever, and then continue on to show where everyone goes from there and finish on an inspiring/uplifting note.

 

[beenie123]

I would warn slightly with the billion dollar predictions until the 2nd weekend and we get an idea of how the legs of the movie are. Only 2 solo marvel movies have made more than that(I don't count civil war as solo) . Anything over 800 especially with its supposed budget is gravy. I personally see it ending around ragnaroks numbers which would be fantastic

 

[Iceman]

Exactly. If someone dies, I'm sure they'll have a funeral or a scene honoring the fallen or whatever, and then continue on to show where everyone goes from there and finish on an inspiring/uplifting note.

I kind of want to have my cake and eat it. I want whoever dies to be present in the final action sequence where I want every hero to feature. But I also want to go out on a positive note which would work better if that death took place before the final battle so that the last part of the film is totally uplifting.

 

[flickchick85]

I kind of want to have my cake and eat it. I want whoever dies to be present in the final action sequence where I want every hero to feature. But I also want to go out on a positive note which would work better if that death took place before the final battle so that the last part of the film is totally uplifting.

I mean, that sounds impossible, but in a movie supposedly featuring some time-travel I guess ya never know.

 

[Web-Head]

I think Endgame will give it a boost too. I know I'm seeing it at least one more time

 

[Mysteryman]

Deadline is estimating that Captain Marvel could make 20-24 million tonight.
If all goes well it could be BVS numbers, which could place it at around 166 million by weekend's end..
Not too shabby.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Yeah I’m definitely in the camp this makes a billion now given these numbers. People are hungry for a big, fun, quality blockbuster movie. It’s been awhile.

I think people are also juiced for Endgame and this coming so close to that after nearly 9 months without an MCU film is fueling that need.

 

[Shuri]

That's a good theory if it wasn't for IW.

Everyone knew the deaths in IW will be reversed.

 

[Mysteryman]

Everyone knew the deaths in IW will be reversed.

I don't think all of them will be.
But, we shall see.

 

[JOE]

Anyone know the numbers for CM’s Thursday previews?

 

[Naglfar]

Anyone know the numbers for CM’s Thursday previews?

Deadline is predicting 20-24M

‘Captain Marvel’ Blasting Off With $20M-$24M Thursday Night – Early B.O. Read

 

[Naglfar]

Also, on the China front, CM made $19M in pre-sales and it's heading to a $30M OD.

Maoyan score is at 8.8 currently and they are predicting a final total around $192M

Edit: Updated estimates point to a $36M OD and an OW of $100M+

2nd edit: Final OD gross is $34M (including previews). Great start!

 

[Zyraquis]

So that means the China legs will be quite short. Since the opening set to be at par with Aquaman and better than Venom both of which earned 200m+. Aquaman pulled in almost 300m. Actually both had 9+ on Maoyan so that could be it.

 

[Naglfar]

Well, Aquaman and Venom had amazing WOM in China (9.6 Maoyan score with a 3.16 multiplier and 9.4 Maoyan score with a 2.43 multiplier respectively).

Assuming CM has an $100M OW and goes on to earn a total of $190M that's a 1.90 multiplier.

For reference the multipliers of the phase 3 MCU films are:

CW 1.96
DS 2.46
GotG 2 2.03
SM:H 1.64
TR 1.99
BP 1.57
AIW 1.80
AatW 1.77

So a 1.90 multiplier would be decent for a MCU film