Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[flickchick85]

And yet nearly two-thirds of the audience were men. So, something about this film didn't appeal to women in nearly the same way WW did. We can say Diana has an advantage in being a cultural icon but that only foes so far. As you say CM sold a pretty standard superhero movie. What did WW sell that CM didn't? Warrior women, sisterhood, mothers and daughters, romance, a handsome leading man, a princess, adventure, femininity, it's more of a traditional fairytale packaged as a superhero movie.

All true. Romance and Pine were a big part, I think, but also the feminist icon factor. But what is your point? It's not like FEWER women came out for Captain Marvel. It had a lot higher attendance - men and women - than WW overall. It just had more men come out because they ain't gonna miss the MCU film before Endgame.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Who cares, just make all the money

Might go a 3rd time to watch it.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

The dudes were cheering just as loud as the ladies were in both my screenings.

 

[jmc]

Well you have to put it into context. The total number of Women who went to watch WW is less than the amount of women who went to watch CM, but because CM did almost 50% more boxoffice than WW due to more guys being interested, it skews the ratio. The true number of CM female viewers is more than what WW pulled.

Wonder Woman OW: 103m - 52% female - 53m women viewers
Captain Marvel OW: 150ishm - 39% female - 59m women viewers

So the question to ask isn't why didn't more women show up for CM, it's why did more men show up for CM as compared to WW.

You're asking a question under two very different situations. WW was coming off the back of BvS and CM is leading into End Game. Two very different scenarios for each film. CM is getting an Avengers boost, lets be 100% honest with ourselves about that because if this was released 2 years ago the interest wouldn't be this high. The better question is for WW how much money would it have made if BvS was beloved? Because, looking at how beloved that movie is, and how well it performed week to week, there's a good chance at least 100 million dollars was left on the table because of BvS.

 

[harlequinade]

Oh God, who cares about all those 'ifs' and 'buts'?

 

[jmc]

All true. Romance and Pine were a big part, I think, but also the feminist icon factor. But what is your point? It's not like FEWER women came out for Captain Marvel. It had a lot higher attendance - men and women - than WW overall. It just had more men come out because they ain't gonna miss the MCU film before Endgame.

I don't think it's a good look if what you're trying to sell as your top female character is not being embraced by women.

 

[Silver Surfer]

You're asking a question under two very different situations. WW was coming off the back of BvS and CM is leading into End Game. Two very different scenarios for each film. CM is getting an Avengers boost, lets be 100% honest with ourselves about that because if this was released 2 years ago the interest wouldn't be this high. The better question is for WW how much money would it have made if BvS was beloved? Because, looking at how beloved that movie is, and how well it performed week to week, there's a good chance at least 100 million dollars was left on the table because of BvS.

That's just conjecture that we can't know the answer to. What we can answer though is that CM has pulled in a massive amount of female audience, even bigger than WW's, on top of that it's just managed to pull an even bigger male audience.

 

[flickchick85]

You're asking a question under two very different situations. WW was coming off the back of BvS and CM is leading into End Game. Two very different scenarios for each film. CM is getting an Avengers boost, lets be 100% honest with ourselves about that because if this was released 2 years ago the interest wouldn't be this high. The better question is for WW how much money would it have made if BvS was beloved? Because, looking at how beloved that movie is, and how well it performed week to week, there's a good chance at least 100 million dollars was left on the table because of BvS.

I don't think you'll find anyone who disagrees that WW was hindered by her respective franchise while CM was helped by hers.

But you seem to be trying suggest that CM failed to appeal to women, which is obviously untrue. More women came out for this movie than they did for Wonder Woman. Just because a lot more men did too (because again, Endgame!) doesn't negate that.

 

[jmc]

That's just conjecture that we can't know the answer to. What we can answer though is that CM has pulled in a massive amount of female audience, even bigger than WW's, it's just managed to pull an even bigger male audience.

Under two different circumstances, correct?

 

[Silver Surfer]

Under two different circumstances, correct?

Yes, both in positives and negatives.

 

[Shuri]

And another close to billion coming from FFH soon after!

I want FFH to make a billion.

 

[Smurphftw]

I wonder what the Male/Female audience ratio for Aliens was in 1986. If I were to pull a total guess out of my backside, I would say at minimum 2 to 1 men more than women.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I want FFH to make a billion.

I got a good feeling!

 

[Shuri]

Apparently there was a youtuber who said he would eat his own s*** if CM opened to 150 or more. He was convinced it would open to less than 80m due to the 'backlash'...

He better do that online.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I hope it was geeks + gamers trolololol

 

[Shuri]

If CM opens to 150MM+ (looking likely right now), then:

Worst OW MCU domestic multiplier(2.28 CW) = 342MM
Worst OW MCU domestic multiplier origin movie (2.43 TIH) = 364.5MM
Average MCU domestic multiplier for first movie in series (2.96) = 448MM
Average MCU domestic multiplier (2.76) = 414MM

While I don't want to say 400MM is a lock because I need to see the WOM first, I think this movie will probably get a 2.75 - 3+ multiplier, especially since it has no competition until Us. If the 150MM OW holds I'm guessing it will outgross Diana in the US and become #2 origin solo movie debut.

I just want this to make it to 400m.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

1 billion opening week let's do it! Lol

 

[Silver Surfer]

It was this D-bag: 1:40sec mark

 

[harlequinade]

Why is this nonsense 13 minutes long lol

my God these people are just such a waste of life

 

[Shuri]

I'd say it's between Pine and Hemsworth for women and Pratt and Hemsworth for guys.

No way! Evans has more female following, just check his twitter posts and his tagg on tumblr. And if you are wondering why I'm invested in this, I'm Evans girl all day.

 

[harlequinade]

No way! Evans has more female following, just check his twitter posts and his tagg on tumblr. And if you are wondering why I'm invested in this, I'm Evans girl all day.

Those Dodger pics give him the advantage over others

 

[Iceman]

I just want this to make it to 400m.

$400m is suddenly looking within reach when it might have sounded too optimistic very recently. And all this backed up with big overseas numbers!

 

[Silver Surfer]

Some current projections from BOT:


61.75 Fri
55.575 Sat -10%
40.57 Sun -27%
157.8M total



I think it'll be a bit more frontloaded than that and do:
61.75 Fri
51.8 Sat -16%
37.3 Sun -28%
150.8M total.

 

[Naglfar]

So it seems $150M is a lock and it has a chance of reaching near $160M. In any case, that's an amazing result and taking into account the A grade on Cinemascore, i think it's going to have good legs moving forward.

 

[Ozbridge]

So, I guess this film wasn't as big a deal as people were making it out to be then, lol.

I honestly don’t understand why the internet whiners think it’s some sort of “feminist agenda pushing” or something like that because... frankly, it’s not? As if a movie is propaganda simply because it’s led by women.

I don't think it's a good look if what you're trying to sell as your top female character is not being embraced by women.

I think it’s okay, there’re different types of women and time is changing. Sure Marvel can try to appeal to women more, but at the end of the day I think letting writers and directors tell the stories they want to tell is more important than having a box office of 5% more (which can’t even be proved).