Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[writer0327]

New guesstimation based on current numbers:

DOM: $450M
OS: $750M
WW: $1.2B

 

[Webfoot Hero]

You should see 4 c h a n. There must be a hundred threads of incels whining about how they've lost the fight against feminism (that's a quote) like they just came home from Vietnam or something. The snowflakery, conspiracy-mongering (Disney bought up all the tickets), and confusion (apparently most of the people who went on opening weekend were white men, which means victory because women hated it or defeat because white men are cu*ks, depending on the thread), are glorious.

The Geeks and Gamer channel is something else. Before the film released, he thought it'd be under $100M OW. Then when predictions started proving him wrong, he tried to say he always thought it'd do $120M. Now that it's hitting for $150M+, he's now saying wait for the 2nd weekend. There's no goalpost that he won't move at this point.

 

[rashad]

Marvel films tend to be frontloaded. It'll be interesting to how it holds in it's 2nd week.

 

[Iceman]

You should see 4 c h a n. There must be a hundred threads of incels whining about how they've lost the fight against feminism (that's a quote) like they just came home from Vietnam or something. The snowflakery, conspiracy-mongering (Disney bought up all the tickets), and confusion (apparently most of the people who went on opening weekend were white men, which means victory because women hated it or defeat because white men are cu*ks, depending on the thread), are glorious.

I'm enjoying this subplot as much as the box office numbers themselves.

 

[Silver Surfer]

455 is down right insane, at this point I won't be surprised if it beats Iron-Man 3.

Oh and a round of applause for the marketing team behind CM, they took so much crap, but clearly knew what they were doing:

 

[Iceman]

The Geeks and Gamer channel is something else. Before the film released, he thought it'd be under $100M OW. Then when predictions started proving him wrong, he tried to say he always thought it'd do $120M. Now that it's hitting for $150M+, he's now saying wait for the 2nd weekend. There's no goalpost that he won't move at this point.

Don't they get ashamed having released multiple videos where they have subsequently been proven totally wrong by numbers? They can always change the narrative afterwards to try and save face but underneath they fully know that they got it wrong (as do their viewers) and would obviously have preferred to have been right. I'm sure there is plenty of headbutting walls and throwing laptops going on behind the scenes.

 

[Iceman]

455 is down right insane, at this point I won't be surprised if it beats Iron-Man 3.

Oh and a round of applause for the marketing team behind CM, they took so much crap, but clearly knew what they were doing:

I don't think the marketing started well but it really improved after the first trailer with every subsequent reveal being better than the last.

 

[MbJ]

B..b...but the boycotts!

 

[ludovica]

Yeah, they have managed to create a unique vehicle that allows an ongoing number of films to be continually released within one continuity all reinforcing each other. It has been an amazing setup and things look like they will keep getting better with Marvel getting back rights to a whole host of their best characters.

Who could have thought that the Marvel bussiness model of the comics would have worked also on the big screen?
I mean, on paper they have been doing it for only a few decades, that is not enough time to gauge its effectiveness, right?

Kidding aside, the execution of it Lord Feige and his knights pulled off is near perfect, after more than 10 years I still am in disbelief that Marvel Zombieism has spread so wide and far. I love it.

 

[Iceman]

Who could have thought that the Marvel bussiness model of the comics would have worked also on the big screen?
I mean, on paper they have been doing it for only a few decades, that is not enough time to gauge its effectiveness, right?

Kidding aside, the execution of it Lord Feige and his knights pulled off is near perfect, after more than 10 years I still am in disbelief that Marvel Zombieism has spread so wide and far. I love it.

Haha, exactly.

And it has gone so well. The level of success just keeps rising with no signs of slowing down. The impact it has had on and loyalty that it has bred even in non-geeks worldwide is quite unbelievable. It could easily take in another 4 billion this year lol.

 

[writer0327]

Getting ready for viewing #2. Who else has seen it twice already?

 

[Silver Surfer]

From BOT:

CM

-China -3rd Highest MCU OW, +43% BP

-Korea 6th Western OW, Highest 1st SA MCU OW Highest March, +22% Ahead BP

-Australia , Highest 1st SA MCU OW, Highest March Owe, +30% Ahead BP

-Indonesia 2nd Highest Western OW, 2nd highest MCU OW, Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest March, +22% BP

-Russia Highest 1st SA MCU OW, 2nd Highest March, +102% BP

-India 9th biggest Western OW, Highest !st SA MCU, Highest Western March Owe, +99% BP

-Thailand 5th Highest OW, Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest Western March OW, +42% BP

-Taiwan Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest March , +42% BP

-Philippines 4th highest OW,Highest 1st SA MCU , Highest Western March OW, +32% BP

-Malaysia-9th highest OW, highest 1st SA MCU, highest western March OW, +65% BP

-Vietnam 2nd highest OW, highest MCU & Western March OW, +52% BP

-Singapore Highest 1st Sa MCU, 2nd Highest western March OWE, +22% BP

-Brazil 2nd Highest OW, highest 1st SA MCU Highest March OW, +66% BP

-Mexico 5th Highest OW, Highest March OW, +44% BP

-Rest LA Highest industry Opening Weekends all time, #3 Paraguay, #4 Peru, #6 Panama Chile Ecuador, #7 Columbia

-UK/IRE highest 1st SA MCU 3rd Highest March, BP opened Tuesday +25% BP Fri-Sun

-France Highest 1st SA MCU, 3rd highest March, +48% BP

-Italy Highest 1st SA MCU, +76% BP

-Spain highest 1st SA MCU, +76% BP

-Rest EU 2nd Highest OW Ukraine, 2nd Highest MCU Belgium, Bosnia, Croatia, Netherlands, Romania, Serbia Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey. Highest March Austria, Belgium , Iceland Netherlands(non local) Slovenia,Turkey (US Studios)

IMAX -Highest Marvel 2nd Highest OW, Biggest Imax OW in 12 Intl Territories including Germany, Ukraine, India, Puerto Rico

 

[ADollarADay]

450MM with BvS legs would give it a 940MM gross. I don't think anyone thinks this will have BvS legs. 1B is locked.

Likewise, 153MM pretty much locks 400MM domestic unless it has legs unlike other MCU movies and becomes an anomaly legs wise like Civil War.

 

[Iceman]

From BOT:

CM

-China -3rd Highest MCU OW, +43% BP

-Korea 6th Western OW, Highest 1st SA MCU OW Highest March, +22% Ahead BP

-Australia , Highest 1st SA MCU OW, Highest March Owe, +30% Ahead BP

-Indonesia 2nd Highest Western OW, 2nd highest MCU OW, Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest March, +22% BP

-Russia Highest 1st SA MCU OW, 2nd Highest March, +102% BP

-India 9th biggest Western OW, Highest !st SA MCU, Highest Western March Owe, +99% BP

-Thailand 5th Highest OW, Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest Western March OW, +42% BP

-Taiwan Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest March , +42% BP

-Philippines 4th highest OW,Highest 1st SA MCU , Highest Western March OW, +32% BP

-Malaysia-9th highest OW, highest 1st SA MCU, highest western March OW, +65% BP

-Vietnam 2nd highest OW, highest MCU & Western March OW, +52% BP

-Singapore Highest 1st Sa MCU, 2nd Highest western March OWE, +22% BP

-Brazil 2nd Highest OW, highest 1st SA MCU Highest March OW, +66% BP

-Mexico 5th Highest OW, Highest March OW, +44% BP

-Rest LA Highest industry Opening Weekends all time, #3 Paraguay, #4 Peru, #6 Panama Chile Ecuador, #7 Columbia

-UK/IRE highest 1st SA MCU 3rd Highest March, BP opened Tuesday +25% BP Fri-Sun

-France Highest 1st SA MCU, 3rd highest March, +48% BP

-Italy Highest 1st SA MCU, +76% BP

-Spain highest 1st SA MCU, +76% BP

-Rest EU 2nd Highest OW Ukraine, 2nd Highest MCU Belgium, Bosnia, Croatia, Netherlands, Romania, Serbia Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey. Highest March Austria, Belgium , Iceland Netherlands(non local) Slovenia,Turkey (US Studios)

IMAX -Highest Marvel 2nd Highest OW, Biggest Imax OW in 12 Intl Territories including Germany, Ukraine, India, Puerto Rico

It’s significantly ahead of BP in so many territories. This is absolutely great for the overseas total.

 

[flickchick85]

Getting ready for viewing #2. Who else has seen it twice already?

*raises hand* Three times.

 

[Iceman]

450MM with BvS legs would give it a 940MM gross. I don't think anyone thinks this will have BvS legs. 1B is locked.

Likewise, 153MM pretty much locks 400MM domestic unless it has legs unlike other MCU movies and becomes an anomaly legs wise like Civil War.

Yeah, $400m dom looks very safe which would leave a max of $600m required for overseas. And given that that is already over $300m, getting another $300m shouldn’t be that difficult.

 

[flickchick85]

B..b...but the boycotts!

Maybe we ought to thank them for the free publicity.

 

[Zyraquis]

From BOT:

CM

-China -3rd Highest MCU OW, +43% BP

-Korea 6th Western OW, Highest 1st SA MCU OW Highest March, +22% Ahead BP

-Australia , Highest 1st SA MCU OW, Highest March Owe, +30% Ahead BP

-Indonesia 2nd Highest Western OW, 2nd highest MCU OW, Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest March, +22% BP

-Russia Highest 1st SA MCU OW, 2nd Highest March, +102% BP

-India 9th biggest Western OW, Highest !st SA MCU, Highest Western March Owe, +99% BP

-Thailand 5th Highest OW, Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest Western March OW, +42% BP

-Taiwan Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest March , +42% BP

-Philippines 4th highest OW,Highest 1st SA MCU , Highest Western March OW, +32% BP

-Malaysia-9th highest OW, highest 1st SA MCU, highest western March OW, +65% BP

-Vietnam 2nd highest OW, highest MCU & Western March OW, +52% BP

-Singapore Highest 1st Sa MCU, 2nd Highest western March OWE, +22% BP

-Brazil 2nd Highest OW, highest 1st SA MCU Highest March OW, +66% BP

-Mexico 5th Highest OW, Highest March OW, +44% BP

-Rest LA Highest industry Opening Weekends all time, #3 Paraguay, #4 Peru, #6 Panama Chile Ecuador, #7 Columbia

-UK/IRE highest 1st SA MCU 3rd Highest March, BP opened Tuesday +25% BP Fri-Sun

-France Highest 1st SA MCU, 3rd highest March, +48% BP

-Italy Highest 1st SA MCU, +76% BP

-Spain highest 1st SA MCU, +76% BP

-Rest EU 2nd Highest OW Ukraine, 2nd Highest MCU Belgium, Bosnia, Croatia, Netherlands, Romania, Serbia Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey. Highest March Austria, Belgium , Iceland Netherlands(non local) Slovenia,Turkey (US Studios)

IMAX -Highest Marvel 2nd Highest OW, Biggest Imax OW in 12 Intl Territories including Germany, Ukraine, India, Puerto Rico

Actually the figure that stood out to me but not mentioned here is Hong Kong. Given that its population is 7.5m and it made 5.5m it could be the highest per capita.

I would be on the conservative side on the final tally it will be very front loaded it’s a matter of how much. The Sunday drop in China is a sign. It’s not I think because of quality like BVS but pent up demand and most people who wanted to see it had seen it. I guess. I would say 900m has a decent chance of 1b.

 

[Iceman]

Actually the figure that stood out to me but not mentioned here is Hong Kong. Given that its population is 7.5m and it made 5.5m it could be the highest per capita.

I would be on the conservative side on the final tally it will be very front loaded it’s a matter of how much. The Sunday drop in China is a sign. It’s not I think because of quality like BVS but pent up demand and most people who wanted to see it had seen it. I guess. I would say 900m has a decent chance of 1b.

Even a billion dollars is assuming conservative legs right now.

 

[Naglfar]

Actually the figure that stood out to me but not mentioned here is Hong Kong. Given that its population is 7.5m and it made 5.5m it could be the highest per capita.

I would be on the conservative side on the final tally it will be very front loaded it’s a matter of how much. The Sunday drop in China is a sign. It’s not I think because of quality like BVS but pent up demand and most people who wanted to see it had seen it. I guess. I would say 900m has a decent chance of 1b.

It would need historically bad legs to miss $1B, but anything could happen i suppose. In any case, even if it finishes in the $900M-$1B range, it's still a huge win.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think this movie plays a lot like Iron-Man 3 which had a 400m/800m Dom/OS split. IM3 did 410m dom off of a 174m OW, I think CM does a similar number and ends with 360-375m dom total, with 750-800m OS.

1,110-1,175b worldwide finish.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Funny you mention iron man 3 @Silver Surfer because I was just thinking this feels a lot like that only that movie pissed off fans because of the mandarin switcharoo instead. Audience ate Iron Man 3 up regardless (..it's the best iron man movie let's fight elsewhere teehee)

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Come to think of it Talos was kind of a perfected version of the mandarin twist.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Come to think of it Talos was kind of a perfected version of the mandarin twist.

Completely agree, that's how you do a villain twist right. If you couldn't tell I despise IM3 with a burning, blazing, blistering passion!!!

I'll get over it one of these days...one of these days...

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Getting ready for viewing #2. Who else has seen it twice already?

Me and I loved it a lot more the second time, I simply liked it the first but my mind had a lot on it that night.

Completely agree, that's how you do a villain twist right. If you couldn't tell I despise IM3 with a burning, blazing, blistering passion!!!

I'll get over it one of these days...one of these days...

It's ok I forgive you