Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Tymminator]

*raises hand* Three times.

Me too.

 

[Smurphftw]

Funny you mention iron man 3 @Silver Surfer because I was just thinking this feels a lot like that only that movie pissed off fans because of the mandarin switcharoo instead. Audience ate Iron Man 3 up regardless (..it's the best iron man movie let's fight elsewhere teehee)

It's my least favorite movie in the MCU, not because of the Mandarin twist(I think Trevor Slattery is really funny tbh), but because it feels more like a Shane Black movie than a Marvel movie. It barely feels connected to the MCU at all to me. Even the ending makes it seem like ..... "Well that's it for Iron Man, he's retiring" ....

I still kinda like it though. It does a lot of things well and I'm such an MCU fanboy I can forgive some of my quibbles with it.

 

[mclay18]

Marvel films tend to be frontloaded. It'll be interesting to how it holds in it's 2nd week.

It could leg out like BP or Wonder Woman, but considering how packed the rest of the month (plus April) is, it’ll probably have a 2.33 or 2.5 multiple domestic but a cool $1 billion worldwide.

 

[Silver Surfer]

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

It could leg out like BP or Wonder Woman, but considering how packed the rest of the month (plus April) is, it’ll probably have a 2.33 or 2.5 multiple domestic but a cool $1 billion worldwide.

I think we can't discount that Marvel/Disney will keep it in theaters post Endgame in hopes of goosing the numbers more with a post Avengers bump.

 

[samsnee]

I think we can't discount that Marvel/Disney will keep it in theaters post Endgame in hopes of goosing the numbers more with a post Avengers bump.

It’ll be out of most major markets but smaller areas will play it. Plus I’m sure it will be part of a double bill as the post credit scene sets up EG.

 

[terry78]

Though they're spread out the MCU is basically one big serialized episode. You don't need to see each one but it helps.

 

[beenie123]

So from the opening weekend I can see it ending up more like this
DOM 360-400m
OS-C 520m
China 140m giving it just over a billion 1.04-06b

So yes at this point a billion should be locked which would be pretty incredible considering it had no prior appearance and pretty much only going off the brand and a little tease at the end of infinity war.

I thought the peak for the brand was infinity war and I will probably still stick with that view but endgame is gonna be massive.

 

[Fallen]

The second Infinity War trailer was released on March 16.

@MarvelStudios Release the Endgame trailer featuring Captain Marvel! .

 

[mclay18]

I think we can't discount that Marvel/Disney will keep it in theaters post Endgame in hopes of goosing the numbers more with a post Avengers bump.

If the second weekend drop falls on the same level as BP, then a 3x multiple is likely in the cards.

 

[Silver Surfer]

It's not getting a 3x multiplier, no way, I'll be happy to 'settle' for a 2.5-2.6x tho.

 

[Silver Surfer]

BOT:

Sunday $39m as per current readings.

61.8
53
39*

153.8

 

[Web-Head]

I think the only real competition this will have for the rest of the month is Dumbo, personally. Us will do well, but it's not really the same target audience. Same with Wonder Park.

Yes, it'll probably still be out when Endgame comes out since I remember Black Panther still being out that Thursday when Infinity War came out because I almost did a double feature that day.

I think it left that Friday when Infinity War was officially released though, but it came out a whole 3-4 weeks before Cap. Marvel

 

[Patrick77]

I saw it again this evening and liked it more the second time. I did like it on opening night, but I was able to appreciate more of the subtleties this time, especially Larson's performance. Theaters were packed. It's going to have solid legs, I think. It's a really fun movie and definitely worth re-watching.

 

[Fallen]

Wonder Park?

Paramount Animation movies always flop, except one.

 

[Web-Head]

Wonder Park?

Paramount Animation movies always flop, except one.

It definitely could flop and I wouldn't be surprised. It is only tracking for 8 million and I haven't seen or heard anything review wise

 

[ADollarADay]

It's not getting a 3x multiplier, no way, I'll be happy to 'settle' for a 2.5-2.6x tho.

2.5-2.6 multiplier is unlikely for a first in the series in the MCU.

Iron Man = 3.23
TIH = 2.43
Thor 1 = 2.75
Cap 1 = 2.71
Avengers = 3
GoTG = 3.53
Ant Man = 3.15
Dr Strange = 2.73
Spiderman Homecoming = 2.86
Black Panther = 3.47

2.75-3+ multiplier is more likely than 2.5-2.6 IMO.

 

[terry78]

Not to get off topic but the YT crusade videos against the flick are still trying their best to dismiss the opening saying all of a sudden that money doesn't matter, lol. Hilarious.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Not to get off topic but the YT crusade videos against the flick are still trying their best to dismiss the opening saying all of a sudden that money doesn't matter, lol. Hilarious.

I've seen many say that the movie is going to drop 70% in its second weekend like BvS and TLJ because its so divisive. Wow are they really going to be in for a big surprise next week lol.

 

[Sithborg]

Box office matters until it doesn't. And then, you twist facts to fit your narrative.

 

[Zyraquis]

They already did twist her words in any case. Should the White House needs more spin doctors .....

 

[writer0327]

I've seen many say that the movie is going to drop 70% in its second weekend like BvS and TLJ because its so divisive. Wow are they really going to be in for a big surprise next week lol.

And what's coming out next week to go up against CM? Oh....nothing you say? CM doesn't have much to worry about this month except for US and Dumbo, and both aren't in the same demographic, so its 4 weeks of solid gains until Shazam.

 

[Fallen]

 

[Adder]

The Geeks and Gamer channel is something else. Before the film released, he thought it'd be under $100M OW. Then when predictions started proving him wrong, he tried to say he always thought it'd do $120M. Now that it's hitting for $150M+, he's now saying wait for the 2nd weekend. There's no goalpost that he won't move at this point.

The new trick is to say, "if it has a 50%+ drop off on weekend two(which is relatively normal for blockbusters) that means WOM was terrible. It has to only drop 30-40% for wom to be proven good." They're trying to salvage something out of this loss by fooling their fans. LoL

 

[psylockolussus]

The second Infinity War trailer was released on March 16.

@MarvelStudios Release the Endgame trailer featuring Captain Marvel! .

They haven't released the 2nd trailer, its only March 11 but it would be great if we get the trailer by March 16. I hope to see all of them in action.