Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[InCali]

Oh yes I remember, and not in my wildest dreams had I imagined this film could do so well. I mean, I voted $600M WW on the poll, and while my expectations rose closer to $800M as we got closer to release, I still never entertained the possibility of us having a billion dollar film on our hands with this “nobody” character. I was just crossing my fingers it would do well enough to bode well for more female heroes. So between that and my general love for the film, I’m thrilled with how all this has turned out, delays and all.

Even though CM isn't close to being an A lister, Carol also has one of the coolest personalities going. I liked what Brie, the writers, and directors came up with in that regard and obviously others did too. I think it's pretty clear that her and BP are going to be the leaders of the new group and we've got some very interesting possibilities and interactions going forward. SH fatigue indeed.....

 

[Naglfar]

From Forbes:

Captain Marvel has earned another $2.798 million (-35% from last Wednesday) for a new $330.776m 20-day cume. So, yeah, for what it's worth, the film has now passed the unadjusted domestic total of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($330m in 2016). Next up is Guardians of the Galaxy ($333m in 2014), Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334m in 2017), Aquaman ($334m in 2018) and Spider-Man 3 ($336m in 2007). It'll pass those flicks by Friday or Saturday as it aims for a $20m fourth weekend and a $352m 24-day total.

 

[Silver Surfer]

A -35% drop is a very good, especially considering the jump it took on Tuesday.

Comparisons:

THG: 2.8m
IM3: 2.2m
GotG2: 2.5m

 

[Stark Bauer]

It’s on pace for $400-415 million domestic

1-1.15 billion worldwide

My prediction from 10 days ago is on the money

 

[Iceman]

From Forbes:

Loads of big names going down in the next few days.

 

[Iceman]

A -35% drop is a very good, especially considering the jump it took on Tuesday.

Comparisons:

THG: 2.8m
IM3: 2.2m
GotG2: 2.5m

Nice. It’s still pacing well compared to these 3 films.

 

[Naglfar]

Official numbers came in a little bit higher

 

[Iceman]

It’s on pace for $400-415 million domestic

1-1.15 billion worldwide

My prediction from 10 days ago is on the money

Great call

 

[Fallen]

Domestic: $330,786,403 35.3%
+ Foreign: $607,300,000 64.7%
= Worldwide: $938,086,403

600M+ OS

 

[Shuri]

Any word on Thursday?

 

[Naglfar]

This week had pretty good numbers. Possible ~$20M WE

 

[Silver Surfer]

This week had pretty good numbers. Possible ~$20M WE

Good stuff, it's keeping pace and slightly exceeding its comps:

THG: 2.8m
GoTG2: 2.4m
IM3: 2.2m

 

[Naglfar]

The following quote is taken from a post at BoxOffice sub-reddit. It gives a good idea, of how big a win CM is (profits wise) for Marvel Studios and Disney

Using the 50-40-25 revenue calculation, only 3 MCU movies have had better box office revenue to production budget ratios. A ratio of less than 1 means the film didn't make its budget back during its box office run (Justice League's is 0.9), while a ratio of 2 means a film doubled its budget during its box office run.

Captain Marvel's current revenue is $386m, which gives a ratio of 2.54. The only MCU movies offering better ratios are Black Panther (2.97), The Avengers (2.92) and Infinity War (2.64). Captain Marvel has also overtaken Wonder Woman (2.39). If CM manages to pass $400m domestic, it will overtake Aquaman (2.79) as well.

It's quite likely Captain Marvel will overtake Infinity War, and become the third best ROI of the MCU. Just for fun, if CM passes $400m domestic and $700m overseas, it will overtake Black Panther and have the best ROI of the entire MCU.

In short: There is literally no way to spin it to say Captain Marvel isn't one of the most financially successful MCU and comic book films of all time.

 

[Iceman]

The following quote is taken from a post at BoxOffice sub-reddit. It gives a good idea, of how big a win CM is (profits wise) for Marvel Studios and Disney

Yeah, I don’t think anyone can read that and still have any doubts.

 

[Patrick77]

This is what we were discussing a few pages back. We didn't do the calculation, but it was clearly going to be a good result.

In fact, it's apparently going to be fantastic. Looking forward to the sequel already.

Black Panther, Captain Marvel, Spidey and Dr. Strange are such a great core for a future Avengers team.

 

[Erzengel]

The following quote is taken from a post at BoxOffice sub-reddit. It gives a good idea, of how big a win CM is (profits wise) for Marvel Studios and Disney

I went crazy using that formula to calculate profit and ratios.

For instance, just the 1st 2 Avengers movies made more profit than the current 6 DCEU movies.

Also, the X-Men series made over $1B in profit but more than half of that comes from just the Deadpool movies.

 

[ludovica]

Yeah, I don’t think anyone can read that and still have any doubts.

Do not overestimate the intelligence of some people, they never cease to surprise me.

 

[Flint Marko]

The following quote is taken from a post at BoxOffice sub-reddit. It gives a good idea, of how big a win CM is (profits wise) for Marvel Studios and Disney

Amazing.

 

[Shuri]

The following quote is taken from a post at BoxOffice sub-reddit. It gives a good idea, of how big a win CM is (profits wise) for Marvel Studios and Disney

Is Aqua man more profitable than CM? I don't know much about BO, but someone on BOT said this will be more profitable than AM since it made a huge sum of its overseas money in China and had higher budget than CM.

 

[Naglfar]

Is Aqua man more profitable than CM? I don't know much about BO, but someone on BOT said this will be more profitable than AM since it made a huge sum of its overseas money in China and had higher budget than CM.

As of now yes, AM is more profitable than CM. However, if CM passes the $400M mark and even if it doesn't make a cent more OS ( currently at $608M) it will pass AM.

On a side note, keep in mind that this formula is somewhat simplistic and takes into consideration only production budget and theatrical revenue (no marketing costs are included, distribution fees, possible back end deals, taxes etc).

 

[Shuri]

As of now yes, AM is more profitable than CM. However, if CM passes the $400M mark and even if it doesn't make a cent more OS ( currently at $608M) it will pass AM.

On a side note, keep in mind that this formula is somewhat simplistic and takes into consideration only production budget and theatrical revenue (no marketing costs are included, distribution fees, possible back end deals, taxes etc).

Thanks for answering.

 

[Naglfar]

 

[InCali]

Where, about, would that probably put the weekend? Maybe around 19 or so?

 

[Naglfar]

Where, about, would that probably put the weekend? Maybe around 19 or so?

I'm guessing $19M-$21M

 

[Silver Surfer]

Based on 5.5m

IM3: 5.1m - 19.3m weekend.
THG: 6.4m - 21m weekend.
GotG2: 5.3m - 20.9m weekend.