The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[InCali]

Went and saw CM again this morning and figured I'd watch Hellboy while I was there. I very much enjoyed CM and caught quite a few things I had missed. Hellboy was a waste of time, but I had some to waste. Yikes....one of the very poorest movies I've seen.....and I've seen quite a few. I'm going to go out on a limb before I check the reviews and the BO and say neither is going to be anything other than brutal.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

 

[psylockolussus]

400 million soon! hang in there!

 

[Iceman]

Very nice hold again this weekend.

 

[8ulk87]

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $386,536,581 36.3%
+ Foreign: $678,000,000 63.7%
= Worldwide: $1,064,536,581

100% not catching Aquaman at this point.
Next targets are $400 mil domestically and $1100 mil worldwide.
Both achievable.

 

[InCali]

Y'know, I was looking at the DOM numbers for CM last weekend and the thought occurred to me that CM could actually move "up" from 6th to 4th. Look what's in front of it; Dumbo by about 500K, Pet Sematary by about 1.4M, and Hellboy about 3.4M. I think Hellboy is going to drop like a rock on Jupiter. On top of that, people might decide to give CM one more go round before Endgame. I did last weekend. And, BTW, Hellboy was god awful. Luckily for me, I had a very large beer.

Possible?

 

[InCali]

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $386,536,581 36.3%
+ Foreign: $678,000,000 63.7%
= Worldwide: $1,064,536,581

100% not catching Aquaman at this point.
Next targets are $400 mil domestically and $1100 mil worldwide.
Both achievable.

Both very good numbers and way beyond anything I expected. Aquaman went crazy internationally.

 

[Erzengel]

But...it would make my heart soar if CM passes Aquaman. :sarcasm:

 

[Mysteryman]

They both earned a billion.
Both films were highly successful.

 

[InCali]

Both far exceeded my expectations in terms of BO. When they first cast Jason, my thought was uh-oh....that guy's going to need a script right in his wheelhouse in order to carry this movie. Well, he got one, but he's much more charismatic than I thought and did a very fine job in this role. Good on him. I'm happy for him and he's set himself up to make some big dough in the future. I can see him now as some rogue CIA guy (though he tends to stand out a bit if he wants to play it low key LOL) or some Taken sort of role or F&F or....well, you get the idea, but I'd be really interested to see him in a role outside of where he's been.

With regard to Brie, I am just so impressed with her. She has this charm, humor, and good natured quality that just stands out on screen. The camera loves her face and she's got that "it" factor. So, hats should be off to the both of them and we should wish them good luck.

The coolest thing about CM, AM, and BP is that it's opening up new avenues.

 

[Mysteryman]

Both far exceeded my expectations in terms of BO. When they first cast Jason, my thought was uh-oh....that guy's going to need a script right in his wheelhouse in order to carry this movie. Well, he got one, but he's much more charismatic than I thought and did a very fine job in this role. Good on him. I'm happy for him and he's set himself up to make some big dough in the future. I can see him now as some rogue CIA guy (though he tends to stand out a bit if he wants to play it low key LOL) or some Taken sort of role or F&F or....well, you get the idea, but I'd be really interested to see him in a role outside of where he's been.

With regard to Brie, I am just so impressed with her. She has this charm, humor, and good natured quality that just stands out on screen. The camera loves her face and she's got that "it" factor. So, hats should be off to the both of them and we should wish them good luck.

The coolest thing about CM, AM, and BP is that it's opening up new avenues.

I agree with EVERYTHING that you just said!

 

[seridrl]

The coolest thing about CM, AM, and BP is that it's opening up new avenues.

Really agree with this. I hope in the future we see the day when a new franchise comes along and it leads with these types of movies instead of them coming later. There is such appetite for diversity, there should be something for everyone the audience is there for it.

On the topic of the box office, really impressed with how this has gone. I'm not sure what I expected for the movie really. I knew it'd be a success because its Marvel but how much of a success is always a more nebulous thing to predict. Be interesting to see what the numbers are in the coming days with Endgame about to drop and if it gets any leg up from that the closer it gets. Maybe some double features when Endgame comes out as well?

 

[InCali]

Y'know, I was looking at the DOM numbers for CM last weekend and the thought occurred to me that CM could actually move "up" from 6th to 4th. Look what's in front of it; Dumbo by about 500K, Pet Sematary by about 1.4M, and Hellboy about 3.4M. I think Hellboy is going to drop like a rock on Jupiter. On top of that, people might decide to give CM one more go round before Endgame. I did last weekend. And, BTW, Hellboy was god awful. Luckily for me, I had a very large beer.

Possible?

From the actuals:

3 N Hellboy (2019) LG/S $12,045,147 - 3,303 - $3,647 $12,045,147 $50 1
4 2 Pet Sematary (2019) Par. $9,745,207 -60.2% 3,585 - $2,718 $40,866,867 $21 2
5 3 Dumbo (2019) BV $9,404,542 -48.4% 3,706 -553 $2,538 $90,163,704 $170 3
6 5 Captain Marvel BV $8,611,527 -30.7% 2,975 -598 $2,895 $386,525,108 - 6

I really could see CM moving up past the 3 of these next weekend. Hellboy may look like a stretch, but that movie is going to fall big time.

InCali: "really poor taste quoting yourself InCali"
InCali: "yeah, I know, but I don't really care"

 

[Naglfar]

+2.23% over last Monday, -65% from Sunday.

 

[Silver Surfer]

1.3m Tuesday according to BOT.

GotG2: 1.075m
IM3: 654k
THG: 864k

 

[Silver Surfer]

Projections according to an insider from BOT:

Captain Marvel

April 12-18 - 12.5m(390)

April 19-25 - 10m (400)

April 26-1 - 8.5m (408.5)

May 2-8- 5.75m (414.25)

May 8-14 - 3.25m (417.5)

Then a tail leading to $421-422mn. That's $20mn more than what I was thinking was ceiling a few weeks ago. Great late legs.

If it somehow manage $710mn in Overseas, currently expecting $700-703mn, it will be close to beating Aquaman, without including Ticket booking charges in China.

 

[psylockolussus]

Mar-Vell-ous.

 

[Naglfar]

From Forbes:

Speaking of Avengers bumps, Captain Marvel is already getting one. Despite losing 598 screens last weekend, the MCU prequel has registered terrific holds compared to its prior weekdays. For reference, the film earned $884,741 on Monday (+2.2% from last Monday), $1.297 million on Tuesday (-6.1% from last Tuesday)and $971,000 yesterday (+8% from last Wednesday). The film has now earned around $389.7 million and should be well over $390 million by the end of this sentence.

If Captain Marvel continues accordingly (it’s still pacing 8% ahead of The Hunger Games), then the film will easily top Frozen ($400 million in 2013), Jurassic Park ($403 million counting the reissues), Captain America ($408 million in 2016), Iron Man 3 ($409 million in 2013), Wonder Woman ($412.5 million in 2017) and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($416 million in 2018).

 

[Iceman]

Yeah I just came here to post after looking at the Mojo figures. Avengers bump in motion with Monday and Wednesday both seeing increases from last week. This is now a holiday weekend and the last one before Endgame so I can see very good numbers here and in the few days before EG launch.

 

[Iceman]

Projections according to an insider from BOT:

Captain Marvel

April 12-18 - 12.5m(390)

April 19-25 - 10m (400)

April 26-1 - 8.5m (408.5)

May 2-8- 5.75m (414.25)

May 8-14 - 3.25m (417.5)

Then a tail leading to $421-422mn. That's $20mn more than what I was thinking was ceiling a few weeks ago. Great late legs.

If it somehow manage $710mn in Overseas, currently expecting $700-703mn, it will be close to beating Aquaman, without including Ticket booking charges in China.

Lovely late legs.

 

[Silver Surfer]

1.29m Thursday according to BOT, and an expected 7.7-8.3m weekend. Will cross 400m well before Endgame hits. It beating Wonder Woman and Fallen Kingdom is a foregone conclusion at this point, remains to be seen whether or not it can pass THG: Catching Fire at 424m

 

[Fallen]

 

[Iceman]

The Thursday was a big increase on last week. EG boost is getting stronger as we get closer! Also up to 3rd for dailies now even with newer films coming out.

 

[Silver Surfer]

3.3m Friday according to BOT, 8m+ for the weekend. Chance it hits 400m by Sunday.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Man you got to love that Marvel synergy. The same thing happened last year with BP just before IW was coming out. This is going to easily coast past $400M now, and I'm hoping it tops Catching Fire's gross.