Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Zarex]

You've got to give kudos to Disney/Marvel for getting industry analysts, trade publications, theater owners, and rival studios to all buy into the "Captain Marvel is a BO success!!" conspiracy.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

- Fourth-biggest superhero launch ever in China
- Fourth-biggest pre-summer debut ever:
- Fourth-biggest domestic opening for a Samuel L. Jackson movie
- Biggest IMAX global launch for a non-sequel
- Biggest opening weekend for a movie starring a cat

Some of the more obscure fun facts about CM courtesy of Forbes Mendelson

 

[KaijuDude1992]

The MCU is such a damn beast.

 

[Web-Head]

 

[Erzengel]

The MCU is such a damn beast.

I would have liked to see 22 movies, $22B with an average of $1B per movie.

 

[Naglfar]

54.36% drop if the $70M figure holds. Pretty similar to GotG 2 drop (55.5%). With a similar final multiplier (2.66) we have a final cume around $408M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[Abudefduf]

Look at how much money my girl is making for the studio that trusted her less than the freaking Guardians of the Galaxy.

Screw you Marvel, the sequel better have a budget of at least $200 million, you penny-pinching bastards.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Look at how much money my girl is making for the studio who trusted her less than the freaking Guardians of the Galaxy.

Screw you Marvel, the sequel better have a budget of at least $200 million, you penny-pinching bastards.

Guardians 1 had a similar budget to CM, I think it only went up because they went over budget.

But Guardians 2 got the 200 million budget so you might get your wish lol.

 

[Erzengel]

I foresee Panther and Captain Marvel sequels having higher production budgets. However, once you hit over that $200M budget, you are expected to have $1B movies.

 

[Patrick77]

So often it feels like the more modest budgets lead to the better movies. Not always, and obviously the mash-ups need to invest in the spectacle, but I rarely leave the theater after one of these movies thinking that they didn't spend enough money.

I didn't with this movie. Of course I've never been a connoisseur of special effects either. I constantly see fans noting issues with effects sequences that I barely notice. Not saying they are wrong, it's just rarely something that bothers me.

Anyway. An uptick in the budget would make sense, especially if more of the movie is set in space, but it's the characters that really make these movies work.

 

[Iceman]

The international dailies are looking great. Aside from China it's a sign of regular-looking legs, which is huge when you open big.

 

[Iceman]

South Korea are turning into a reliable beast, consistently right near the top of the chart after China. With this film they are well clear so far. Indonesia is also outperforming significantly.

 

[Iceman]

54.36% drop if the $70M figure holds. Pretty similar to GotG 2 drop (55.5%). With a similar final multiplier (2.66) we have a final cume around $408M.

I would be stoked with a $70m 2nd weekend and for final dom, will be happy as long as it's $400m+.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Behind China, I'd say South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Australia are the strongest performers for the MCU. If I'm remembering right, the UK can be kinda hit-or-miss with their BO totals.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Look at how much money my girl is making for the studio that trusted her less than the freaking Guardians of the Galaxy.

Screw you Marvel, the sequel better have a budget of at least $200 million, you penny-pinching bastards.

I don't give a F about the budget, the budget doesn't make the or break the movie, the creative and marketing process does. They gave her the post credit scene of the biggest movie in their franchise history, and then proceeded to giver her the lead in slot for their next biggest movie. They also gave her a exorbitantly expensive Superbowl spot. They trusted her a lot, and she delivered. Thank you Marvel.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Budgets getting to overblown anyway, no reason a solo superhero movie should be over 200 million unless it's an ensemble like civil war

 

[Iceman]

You've got to give kudos to Disney/Marvel for getting industry analysts, trade publications, theater owners, and rival studios to all buy into the "Captain Marvel is a BO success!!" conspiracy.

This takes a lot of criminal coordination and organisational skills. Disney are the modern day mob.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I would be stoked with a $70m 2nd weekend and for final dom, will be happy as long as it's $400m+.

A sub 55% drop seems optimistic to me, especially considering the inflated weekdays thanks to spring break. Would be stoked if it happens though.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Think about that logic...omg our movie is bombing...let's inflate this loss by wasting money so it doesn't look like we are losing...people are delusional.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

This takes a lot of criminal coordination and organisational skills. Disney are the modern day mob.

On another site, some poster was trying to tell me that no one who goes on the opening week actually pays for their film since every ticket is subsidized by the theater and/or studio. When I told him that wasn't the case when I've gone and I've actually paid, he then said no money actually gets taken and is credited back to people's accounts. Once I said that never happened, he basically quit talking. If that was really the case, I'd have over $200 dollars extra in my bank account from all the Disney rebates I've supposedly should have received from seeing all these MCU and SW films.

 

[Iceman]

Behind China, I'd say South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Australia are the strongest performers for the MCU. If I'm remembering right, the UK can be kinda hit-or-miss with their BO totals.

The UK is big when it counts though for the mega events like IW. $96.6m vs South Korea’s $88.5m, Brazil’s $66.7m and Mexico’s $60m. The next highest is $47.2m, already less than half the UK’s number. Ant Man & Wasp was an outlier as they screened it during England’s best World Cup performance in just under 3 decades.

 

[Xeno]

- Fourth-biggest superhero launch ever in China
- Fourth-biggest pre-summer debut ever:
- Fourth-biggest domestic opening for a Samuel L. Jackson movie
- Biggest IMAX global launch for a non-sequel
- Biggest opening weekend for a movie starring a cat

Some of the more obscure fun facts about CM courtesy of Forbes Mendelson

 

[Iceman]

On another site, some poster was trying to tell me that no one who goes on the opening week actually pays for their film since every ticket is subsidized by the theater and/or studio. When I told him that wasn't the case when I've gone and I've actually paid, he then said no money actually gets taken and is credited back to people's accounts. Once I said that never happened, he basically quit talking. If that was really the case, I'd have over $200 dollars extra in my bank account from all the Disney rebates I've supposedly should have received from seeing all these MCU and SW films.

That might be the dumbest argument yet. Does he think he’s talking to entire forums of people who’ve never been to see a film in opening week in their lives? Even on Incel Central they’ll be trying to shut him down as he is embarrassing them with something so obvious.