Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Erzengel]

Can we talk about the conspiracy of SHH news not announcing that Captain Marvel reaching 500M? [/sarcasm]

 

[Patrick77]

I hope I live long enough to be hanging out in one of these threads chatting about whether or not the folks on the Mars colony really dug the film, that's all I'm saying

That could eventually be an important market

 

[Iceman]

I hope I live long enough to be hanging out in one of these threads chatting about whether or not the folks on the Mars colony really dug the film, that's all I'm saying

That could eventually be an important market

DC fans will be boasting about bringing Martian Manhunter to screen first.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Hopefully the space force is keeping us safe by then

 

[The Whizzer]

Boom!

#getwokemake1billiondollars

 

[Xeno]

A bold statement, I know

If anything, that movie is a perfect example of how important the characters really are, it has so many obvious problems, Ebert disliked it so much that he declined to even review it. But it still basically worked because of Thor and Loki.

And now look at how much has been built on the foundation of those two characters.

When Marvel Studios started out, it was an indie operation. Its initial capital stake was $500 million from Merrill Lynch, from which it had to finance its first phase of films and meet repayment goals. Feige had to make every dollar stretch on those early films as any indie producer would. The fact that the films looked as good as they did, despite the problems caused by budgets, is amazing.

 

[Patrick77]

You're right, of course, but I do think that Thor is the movie that showcases those limitations to the greatest extent. I always felt that Ebert's reaction was overkill, for the record, but there was something about the film that he really despised, in spite of admiring much of Branagh's other work.

I'm glad that they went ahead with it since it allowed Thor to be a part of the Avengers from the beginning, but he's really a character who might have fit better in phase 2 from a production standpoint. Also just the willingness to be a little more zany and not worry so much about grounding the film.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Probably a little extra tighter with Perlmutter aroundf lol

 

[Xeno]

It means every MCU film was a failure and they have been losing hundreds of millions with each film. They are very slow learners though and bad at maths, but within a couple of years Disney will go bankrupt as a result of the accumulated losses and will be forced to pull the plug and give all the rights to Sony.

Some clowns on another site are saying that neither Captain Marvel nor Black Panther deserves any credit for their own box office because the Marvel brand brings in $600 million right off the bat. I guess that doesn't apply to the Ant-Man franchise. (And I love Ant-Man.)

 

[Patrick77]

For Black Panther, they cannot be serious. That movie made more at the domestic box office than any of the team-ups. Only slightly less than the first Avengers film even adjusted for inflation.

Overseas the MCU connection probably did help in certain markets, as it does for all these movies, but it's still an unusually high number overall, even without doing anything massive in China.

 

[Iceman]

Some clowns on another site are saying that neither Captain Marvel nor Black Panther deserves any credit for their own box office because the Marvel brand brings in $600 million right off the bat. I guess that doesn't apply to the Ant-Man franchise. (And I love Ant-Man.)

The clown population seems to have shot through the roof recently. We need to look at whether this is due to a failure in clown contraception or an increase in clown sexual relations.

 

[Iceman]

When Marvel Studios started out, it was an indie operation. Its initial capital stake was $500 million from Merrill Lynch, from which it had to finance its first phase of films and meet repayment goals. Feige had to make every dollar stretch on those early films as any indie producer would. The fact that the films looked as good as they did, despite the problems caused by budgets, is amazing.

It’s a quite unbelievable story how they’ve gone from that base to likely pulling in $4b from just 3 films in 2 consecutive years and dominating the global box office charts.

 

[Iceman]

You're right, of course, but I do think that Thor is the movie that showcases those limitations to the greatest extent. I always felt that Ebert's reaction was overkill, for the record, but there was something about the film that he really despised, in spite of admiring much of Branagh's other work.

I'm glad that they went ahead with it since it allowed Thor to be a part of the Avengers from the beginning, but he's really a character who might have fit better in phase 2 from a production standpoint. Also just the willingness to be a little more zany and not worry so much about grounding the film.

If Thor was debuting now, I doubt they’d bother with the magic = science explanations.

 

[Iceman]

For Black Panther, they cannot be serious. That movie made more at the domestic box office than any of the team-ups. Only slightly less than the first Avengers film even adjusted for inflation.

Overseas the MCU connection probably did help in certain markets, as it does for all these movies, but it's still an unusually high number overall, even without doing anything massive in China.

There is no explaining away a $700m domestic number for a solo character.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

It’s a quite unbelievable story how they’ve gone from that base to likely pulling in $4b from just 3 films in 2 consecutive years and dominating the global box office charts.

And how many thought Disney overpaid for a studio/company that didn't have much of a track record for long-term success.

 

[writer0327]

I'm imagining the weekend before Endgame will be a huge weekend for CM. A lot of repeat views, a lot of folks who waited to see it.

 

[Smurphftw]

1 bill opening weekend or fail. Everyone knows that.

That is some seriously next level goal post moving.

 

[Iceman]

And how many thought Disney overpaid for a studio/company that didn't have much of a track record for long-term success.

Exactly. The crazy success since masks the huge risk that Disney took. No one knew that the limited film rights would give way to something that would eventuallly beat out Star Wars within 10 years.

 

[Iceman]

I'm imagining the weekend before Endgame will be a huge weekend for CM. A lot of repeat views, a lot of folks who waited to see it.

Aside from fans like us, I can see a fair part of the GA double dipping or going for the double bill for what is, to even them, one of the biggest events in film history. For younger guys it is the biggest event.

 

[Patrick77]

If Thor was debuting now, I doubt they’d bother with the magic = science explanations.

Probably not, yeah. The Eternals will eventually be an interesting comparison. It's been a while since I looked at the comics, but I recall them being introduced in a way that was pretty closely connected to the Thor comics. Weren't the Eternals another one of Kirby's pantheons, basically, like the New Gods?

I don't know if they will be connected to the Asgardians at all in the MCU, but the way it's handled could give us a sense of how the Thor-verse might have been introduced at a later stage of the overall story.

 

[Iceman]

Probably not, yeah. The Eternals will eventually be an interesting comparison. It's been a while since I looked at the comics, but I recall them being introduced in a way that was pretty closely connected to the Thor comics. Weren't the Eternals another one of Kirby's pantheons, basically, like the New Gods?

I don't know if they will be connected to the Asgardians at all in the MCU, but the way it's handled could give us a sense of how the Thor-verse might have been introduced at a later stage of the overall story.

Yes, I'm very interested to see how they will approach Eternals (yes, created by Kirby and similar to New Gods). There's been speculation of whether they will have any connection to the Olympians and I think a Thor introduced post Phase 3 would have been completely different and would have embraced the magic and godhood from the first frame. Back in Phase 1 they had no idea if they could get away with it so they tried to ground half of it with ultra-boring earth characters and cheesy comedy along with explaining away all the more out-there elements. (I still like Thor 1 a lot though)

 

[Flint Marko]

It’s a quite unbelievable story how they’ve gone from that base to likely pulling in $4b from just 3 films in 2 consecutive years and dominating the global box office charts.

My signature here back in 2006 was “Marvel Studios > you.” Kinda wish I’d kept that for the entirety of my stint here.

I had a feeling they’d be huge well before we saw a single frame of Iron Man, but I had no idea they’d basically take over Hollywood lol.

 

[Iceman]

My signature here back in 2006 was “Marvel Studios > you.” Kinda wish I’d kept that for the entirety of my stint here.

I had a feeling they’d be huge well before we saw a single frame of Iron Man, but I had no idea they’d basically take over Hollywood lol.

You did well to call that! I was totally confident the first Avengers would do huge numbers (but only after the success of Iron Man), but now we are getting to a stage that I had no idea they could achieve. Also I remember you had a MCU box office signature that I really liked.

 

[metaphysician]

That's the part that is endlessly amusing, especially combined with the lack of desire on the part of the studios to adapt more than a handful of characters for a long time, or to trust the comic book source material.

It's like geeks always had this fear that their niche interest had to be treated with ultra-seriousness in order to be accepted, or that the public would quickly tire of it. It was too silly for general audiences, etc., and the executives holding the purse strings basically felt the same way, or had a similar opinion from the opposite perspective.

A lot of the credit has to go to Feige and Marvel Studios, imho. I don't know that any of this happens without their vision of bringing the comics to the big screen as a connected universe.

I think this is a significant element at play. I call it "respectability indulgence"- fans who want their geek media to be in a form that "can be taken seriously", so that they can enjoy it while also being confident that its not "kid stuff" at all. Why 'indulgence'? Because its usually tied up into making the form 'respectability' without necessarily any real concern for keeping the spirit true, too. So, its okay to make a Superman movie where his character is eviscerated almost beyond recognition, just so long as the imagery is present in a "serious, real movie".

Or basically, its the whole CS Lewis "childish things" affliction. And like is usually the case, such a fervent aversion to the hint of 'childishness' usually ends up looking rather juvenile.

 

[Patrick77]

I basically agree. These movies can be fun, while also being relevant to people's lives and having a serious element.

That's always been a false contradiction, and revealing that so clearly to be the case, on a grand scale, is one reason why I enjoy the MCU so much.