The Clinton Thread II

[samsnee]

Does not matter, innocent or not, that should not have happened. ESPECIALLY if you are already considered friends. Prove to me the conversation remained off the topic of the investigation.....you can't, and therein lies the problem.

Yeah I have no doubt Loretta shut it down if Bill if he tried to bring it up. He's just a dummy for not even thinking how unethical it looks.

 

[Kelly]

Yeah I have no doubt Loretta shut it down if Bill if he tried to bring it up. He's just a dummy for not even thinking how unethical it looks.

It's not him that is the dummy, SHE is the one that should have known better....

 

[Bruce Banner]

It's not him that is the dummy, SHE is the one that should have known better....

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/0...llary-clinton-email-server.html?_r=0&referer=

Nobody seemed happy with that incident.

I wonder if the FBI are finally close to wrapping up this case? A lot of hacked emails have been released lately and more and more information comes to light. One of my main issues with her running has been the elephant in the room that is this case.


I dislike her and the Donald, but there is no denying that she has been the victim of Republican smear campaigns over the years. With these two active investigations, republicans cried wolf so much that this gets wrangled in to the Bengahzi stuff and written off as another witch hunt.

 

[BoredGuy]

Innocent or npt, it looks bad, and she should have known better.

Does not matter, innocent or not, that should not have happened. ESPECIALLY if you are already considered friends. Prove to me the conversation remained off the topic of the investigation.....you can't, and therein lies the problem.

yeah no, that's definitely true
if you just have to talk, do it out in the open in the middle of the terminal or something where people can verify it remained small talk-y
walking onto her plane was shady and stupid on Bill's part

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

At this point, though, I honestly think Bill gives exactly 0 f***s about anything these days haha.

 

[Matt]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/0...llary-clinton-email-server.html?_r=0&referer=

Nobody seemed happy with that incident.

I wonder if the FBI are finally close to wrapping up this case? A lot of hacked emails have been released lately and more and more information comes to light. One of my main issues with her running has been the elephant in the room that is this case.


I dislike her and the Donald, but there is no denying that she has been the victim of Republican smear campaigns over the years. With these two active investigations, republicans cried wolf so much that this gets wrangled in to the Bengahzi stuff and written off as another witch hunt.

Loretta Lynch vowing to accept the FBI recommendation means that she knows what the recommendation is (after all, the FBI answers to her) and its probably either no indictment or "you decide."

 

[Schlosser85]

If it's indictment, Obama should pardon her.

 

[Matt]

If it's indictment, Obama should pardon her.

If an indictment is forthcoming there is no way Obama pardons. That puts him in the same category as Gerald Ford, from a legacy perspective. In fact, if an indictment is forthcoming, the President knows and the President gave Lynch the green light to hold that press conference today...which means he is authorizing the indictment.

There is certainly no love lost between Obama and the Clintons, but this would basically be him telling them "**** you." He certainly won't turn around and pardon her after that.

 

[Schlosser85]

If Hillary is indicted and Obama lets it go through, that's handing the White House to Trump.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Let's talk running mate. WHO'S IT GONNA BE?

Tim "I am oatmeal" Kaine
Liz "progressive hero" Warren
Bernard "not a real Democrat" Sanders
Xavier "who is that?" Becerra
other

 

[Bruce Banner]

FBI Director James Comey was appointed by Obama in 2013. Despite being republican he has been known not to play party politics and has had issues with Bush/Cheney in 2004 as well as the Clintons in the 90's. So this will be the guy giving the call that could change the course of the election.

Here's some on those stories:
http://time.com/4276988/jim-comey-hillary-clinton/

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2007/05/16/washington/16nsa.html?referer

If Hillary is indicted and Obama lets it go through, that's handing the White House to Trump.

Matt's right about the pardon. The Gerald Ford comparison if he did that would be thrown at him and taint his legacy.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Not worth worrying about to me.

Several law-enforcement officials said they don’t expect any criminal charges to be filed as a result of the investigation, although a final review of the evidence will be made only after an expected FBI interview with Mrs. Clinton this summer.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-emails-in-probe-dealt-with-planned-drone-strikes-1465509863 (June 9, 2016)

EDIT:

Sources tell CNN's Evan Perez: expectation is that there will be announcement of no charges in Clinton email probe w/in next two weeks or so

https://mobile.***********/TeddyDavisCNN/status/749347441057603588 (July 2, 2016)

 

[Matt]

If Hillary is indicted and Obama lets it go through, that's handing the White House to Trump.

As does a pardon. A pardon is, essentially, an admission of guilt, for which consequence is being avoided thanks to partisan politics and cronyism. It feeds right into Trump's message.

I dare say, if indicted, she is better off pushing forward with her campaign, playing up the presumption of innocence, rather than accepting a pardon.

As for Obama, any indictment costs Clinton the election. Why taint his own legacy alongside hers when defeat is inevitable at that point?

FBI Director James Comey was appointed by Obama in 2013. Despite being republican he has been known not to play party politics and has had issues with Bush/Cheney in 2004 as well as the Clintons in the 90's. So this will be the guy giving the call that could change the course of the election.

Here's some on those stories:
http://time.com/4276988/jim-comey-hillary-clinton/

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2007/05/16/washington/16nsa.html?referer


Matt's right about the pardon. The Gerald Ford comparison if he did that would be thrown at him and taint his legacy.

Like I said, Lynch saying she will indict if the FBI recommends it signals to me that she knows that the FBI won't. At worst I think it will come back as inconclusive.

On the other hand, there is the meeting between Bill and Lynch. I am of two minds of that. Some have suggested that it is indicative of her warning Bill of a forthcoming indictment or Bill trying to pressure her out of indicting. I don't buy that. The Clintons (and Lynch) are smarter than that. If she were warning them of an indictment, it would be done through back channel aides, not a meeting between the Attorney General and a former President (which would be impossible to hide). Same if he were trying to pressure her. It wouldn't be so overt. That all leads me to believe that it truly was a coincidence.

Of course, let's assume for a moment that it is indicative of Lynch giving the Clintons a heads up. If that is the case, I think it means Clinton will announce her running mate in the next few weeks and Lynch will pressure the FBI into withholding their report until after the Democratic Convention. That prevents Bernie Sanders from using an indictment to hijack the nomination (that being said, even if Clinton were indicted tomorrow, I do not think Sanders will, nor should he, be the nominee). But waiting until after the convention the Party ensures that there is an heir apparent ready to step in as nominee, in the form of the Vice-Presidential nominee.

That leads us to...

Let's talk running mate. WHO'S IT GONNA BE?

Tim "I am oatmeal" Kaine
Liz "progressive hero" Warren
Bernard "not a real Democrat" Sanders
Xavier "who is that?" Becerra
other

I'd say:

40 % Kaine (who is a very uninspired choice, IMO)
15 % Sherrod Brown
15 % Julian Castro
10 % Elizabeth Warren
5 % Cory Booker
5 % Tom Perez
3 % Xavier Becerra
7 % Other
0 % Sanders (he's not even being vetted)

Personally, I think Brown is the best choice.

I think there is an outside chance of Castro, Warren, Booker, Perez or Beccerra because I think while a double minority ticket is risky, Clinton's ego (which is, admittedly, large) may get the best of her and she would love to have her administration be historically remembered as the first of two minorities at the top.

That being said, I think it will be Kaine for a few reasons. First and foremost, I don't think Clinton (with her ego being what it is) wants to be overshadowed by her running mate (Castro, Booker, Warren, Perez and Becerra all overshadow her). In fact, I'd say Xavier Beccerra lobbying for the position has hurt his chances considerably for that very reason. This is HER time. She is ENTITLED to it. She isn't going to pick a VP who overshadows her in her moment. Second, Kaine is a very safe pick. I think Clinton likes that. Third, his is a Clinton crony. She doesn't want an Al Gore situation. She wants someone who falls in line. That'll be Kaine.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

I'm worried about Kaine's debating skills as well as what his ambition is: does he want to run for president himself in the future? Is he another Al Gore - very capable but very unexciting.

 

[Matt]

I'm not even sure he is all that capable.

Kaine is a bad choice, IMO.

- He is dull as a rock (which will be bad during a debate with Chris Christie who, while obnoxious, is relatively charismatic and will bully the hell out of Kaine).

- He isn't all that likeable. Clinton isn't either. They both come off as artificial, typical politicians with about as much sincerity as a pathological liar.

- He is very DC/DNC insider.

- He is MORE moderate than Clinton (bordering on right wing when it comes to gun control and abortion, two topics which will be on the front line of this election), which will do her no favors with the Sanders crowd.

- He gives the impression of corruption. Close your eyes and imagine the stereotyped, greasy, sleazy, corrupt politician. I bet your image is pretty close to Tim Kaine. I'm not saying he is corrupt, but he definitely gives off the artificial, corrupt, career politician vibe. Further, the more he is vetted, the more dirt is being found. Last week a story broke that he accepted close to 200,000 dollars in gifts while Governor of Virginia (including an $18,000 Caribbean vacation). Nominating Kaine hands Trump the "Crooked Clinton and Crooked Kaine narrative on a silver platter.

Its funny, if you want Tim Kaine that badly, go with Ed Rendell. Kaine is basically a poor man's Ed Rendell, only Rendell does it better. If you want a Virginia Senator, go with Mark Warner. He is less sleazy than Kaine, every bit as boring and moderate, and lacking in Kaine's corrupt insider image/skeletons (which is ironic considering he has been on the national scene much longer).

There are so many better choices than Tim Kaine. But I think Clinton's ego will force her to nominate him. Its no big deal. He doesn't help or hurt her prospects of winning. But tying herself to Kaine, who is not terribly likeable or capable of bringing much to the table, could come back to bite her in 2020 if Republicans get their act together (as she will be a very vulnerable incumbent).

 

[Matt]

If anyone is curious here is a leaked RNC memo that breaks down Clinton's Veep choices and their shortcomings

RNC seems to be gearing up for Kaine (having already sent ground teams to do opposition research).

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

I think Kaine is qualified for the job, but Clinton might want to consider someone to her left in case anyone gets the crazy idea of removing her from office - they'd be putting a more progressive person into the presidency.

 

[Matt]

I think Kaine is qualified for the job, but Clinton might want to consider someone to her left in case anyone gets the crazy idea of removing her from office - they'd be putting a more progressive person into the presidency.

Look closely at his record. The RNC opposition research memo isn't wrong. Kaine has virtually no accomplishments to his name despite being a career politician.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Gore received 3.5 million more votes than Clinton did in 1996.
Bush received over 11 million more votes than Dole did in 1996.

Gore won the plurality of the popular vote slightly in that election, but it goes to show that enthusiasm matters in the electorate as turnout was back to 1992's levels.

 

[Matt]

You know, I said it a few months ago, and before that about a year ago, and I still stand by it...the best choice is Joe Biden. He's got liberal credentials. He is far more likeable than any names that have been thrown out there (and Clinton's favorability rating is exactly why she needs a likeable veep). There is really nothing to attack him on. America likes him. Worse thing he does is tie Clinton to the Obama administration, and considering that more Americans would prefer a third Obama term to Trump or Clinton, its not such a bad idea.

 

[Lighthouse]

You know, I said it a few months ago, and before that about a year ago, and I still stand by it...the best choice is Joe Biden. He's got liberal credentials. He is far more likeable than any names that have been thrown out there (and Clinton's favorability rating is exactly why she needs a likeable veep). There is really nothing to attack him on. America likes him. Worse thing he does is tie Clinton to the Obama administration, and considering that more Americans would prefer a third Obama term to Trump or Clinton, its not such a bad idea.

I'd certainly be happier if he was running, instead of Clinton somehow being the one candidate that could actually lose to Donald Trump.

 

[Matt]

Clinton's FBI interview was today. Now that is quite interesting in terms of timing. If I'm not mistaken, that was supposed to happen at the end of the summer. Bill meets with the AG and suddenly it happens two days later? AG says she is going to accept any recommendations of the FBI and two days later Clinton is meeting with them?

It seems to me that Lynch probably knows that the FBI is not going to recommend indictment. That is why she said what she did. The meeting with Bill was probably a way of telling Hillary to go through with the interview and they could get all of this indictment talk over with before the convention.

Still, if that is the case, why not just send aides? I understand the reason for not having the conversation electronically considering everything is getting hacked these days. But they had to realize that a former President meeting with the Attorney General would raise some eyebrows. Maybe they wanted to keep the circle small, avoid leaks?

 

[Bruce Banner]

Clinton's FBI interview was today. Now that is quite interesting in terms of timing. If I'm not mistaken, that was supposed to happen at the end of the summer. Bill meets with the AG and suddenly it happens two days later? AG says she is going to accept any recommendations of the FBI and two days later Clinton is meeting with them?

It seems to me that Lynch probably knows that the FBI is not going to recommend indictment. That is why she said what she did. The meeting with Bill was probably a way of telling Hillary to go through with the interview and they could get all of this indictment talk over with before the convention.

Still, if that is the case, why not just send aides? I understand the reason for not having the conversation electronically considering everything is getting hacked these days. But they had to realize that a former President meeting with the Attorney General would raise some eyebrows. Maybe they wanted to keep the circle small, avoid leaks?

From I gather the meeting was three and a half hours. Some people claim that is pretty standard amount of time. I'm surprised the meeting came about this quickly.

The timing is interesting. It benefits them being a holiday weekend and not a lot of people will be watching as much TV too.

No matter what the meeting in Arizona or anywhere should never have happened. Even if Hillary, Bill or whoever is clean, that type of behavior makes it look seedy and like they were working around it.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Bill is very extroverted. This has been known since before he became President.

<-introvert - extrovert->
<- Barack Obama - Hillary Clinton - George W. Bush - Bill Clinton - Donald Trump ->

 

[Bruce Banner]

Doesn't matter that he is extroverted (say what you will about him but he is/was charismatic as hell).

Even if he is a chatty fellow, nobody should be chatting privately (in any form) with the person who would decide the fate of his wife in an ongoing investigation. Even if they are friends they should not speak until the matter is resolved.