The Clinton Thread II

[Matt]

It honestly baffles me that Trump supporters think that people will support him in the general election.

I don't think Trump supporters do much thinking at all.

 

[Taarna]

It honestly baffles me that Trump supporters think that people will support him in the general election.

Trump supporters are going to bring out the vote. After all SV, elections are won by turnout. I would also say that Trump will bring out a higher percentage of non-traditional voters.

Clinton's base is shaky. She's not drawing big crowds, and 1 in 4 Sanders supporters say they will NEVER vote for Clinton. 1 in 4. That's 25% of the Democratic vote.

 

[souvlaki]

Trump supporters are going to bring out the vote. After all SV, elections are won by turnout. I would also say that Trump will bring out a higher percentage of non-traditional voters.

Clinton's base is shaky. She's not drawing big crowds, and 1 in 4 Sanders supporters say they will NEVER vote for Clinton. 1 in 4. That's 25% of the Democratic vote.

1 in 4, many of which are independent not Democrats and many of which have never voted before. On that note pretty sure it was about 1in 4 Clinton supporters .ho said tgey would never vote for Obama in 2008. People overreact when primaries are heated like they are right now. Few Sanders supported in purple states are going to stay home if Trump or Cruz are the nominee. Reliably blue or red states, sure.

 

[Pink Ranger]

Republican dream Ticket that could make peace:

Pres Trump
VP Kasich
Surgeon General Carson
Attorney General or Supreme court pick Cruz

They could ride to the White House on four horses.

 

[Marvolo]

Republican dream Ticket that could make peace:

Pres Trump
VP Kasich
Surgeon General Carson
Attorney General or Supreme court pick Cruz

Trump supporters are going to bring out the vote. After all SV, elections are won by turnout. I would also say that Trump will bring out a higher percentage of non-traditional voters.

Clinton's base is shaky. She's not drawing big crowds, and 1 in 4 Sanders supporters say they will NEVER vote for Clinton. 1 in 4. That's 25% of the Democratic vote.

They arent even bringing out the vote in the primaries. Not for him. In some states that he won he received votes from less than 25% of the total registered voters in the state. Its as low as 10% in some northern states. The best he did was in Mississippi where he received 30%.

And he has one of the lowest populatity ratings in history with general election voters.

The only thing Trump is going to do in the general election is lose.

 

[Kelly]

Trump supporters are going to bring out the vote. After all SV, elections are won by turnout. I would also say that Trump will bring out a higher percentage of non-traditional voters.

Clinton's base is shaky. She's not drawing big crowds, and 1 in 4 Sanders supporters say they will NEVER vote for Clinton. 1 in 4. That's 25% of the Democratic vote.

What planet do you live on?

 

[DDS]

Trump supporters are going to bring out the vote. After all SV, elections are won by turnout. I would also say that Trump will bring out a higher percentage of non-traditional voters.

Clinton's base is shaky. She's not drawing big crowds, and 1 in 4 Sanders supporters say they will NEVER vote for Clinton. 1 in 4. That's 25% of the Democratic vote.

She has more votes than any candidate from either parties, although I think Trump will bring out people that have never voted...specifically, women and minorities that will vote AGAINST him.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What planet do you live on?

Not Earth.

 

[Schlosser85]

Clinton's base is shaky. She's not drawing big crowds, and 1 in 4 Sanders supporters say they will NEVER vote for Clinton. 1 in 4. That's 25% of the Democratic vote.

Uh, that's 25% of Sanders' supporters, not 25% of the overall Democratic vote.

Also Bernie supporters aren't necessarily Democrats.

 

[Thundercrack85]

Uh, that's 25% of Sanders' supporters, not 25% of the overall Democratic vote.

Also Bernie supporters aren't necessarily Democrats.

Which is going to cost him in New York's closed primary.

 

[Taarna]

1 in 4, many of which are independent not Democrats and many of which have never voted before. On that note pretty sure it was about 1in 4 Clinton supporters .ho said tgey would never vote for Obama in 2008. People overreact when primaries are heated like they are right now. Few Sanders supported in purple states are going to stay home if Trump or Cruz are the nominee. Reliably blue or red states, sure.

Most of which desribe themselves as Old school Liberal or Democrat. Clinton can't win if she loses 10% of these voters. She also needs the young vote, which Sanders has. Where is this data on Sanders supporters being independent?

Sanders can be this year's Ralph Nader and then some.

 

[Taarna]

Uh, that's 25% of Sanders' supporters, not 25% of the overall Democratic vote.

Also Bernie supporters aren't necessarily Democrats.

Most of Sanders supporters are Democrats who voted for Obama.

About 7.5 million people have already voted for Sanders.

Sanders will have an estimated 13-14 million votes by the end of the process.

25% of that is a big number, and can swing battleground states such as Colorado, Virgina, Ohio, Florida, etc...

 

[DDS]

Most of Sanders supporters are Democrats who voted for Obama.

About 7.5 million people have already voted for Sanders.

Sanders will have an estimated 13-14 million votes by the end of the process.

25% of that is a big number, and can swing battleground states such as Colorado, Virgina, Ohio, Florida, etc...

That seems extremely improbable, and even it it were true, most of those former Obama supporters will probably vote for either Hillary or Bernie if for no other reason than to block the GOP nom. As will a lot of these Bernie-or-Bust folks when faced with the actual reality that Trump or Cruz could be president. There were Hillary-or-Bust voters in 2008 too, and that didn't seem to hurt Obama in the general. And Trump and Cruz have even less favorability than McCain.

 

[souvlaki]

Most of which desribe themselves as Old school Liberal or Democrat. Clinton can't win if she loses 10% of these voters. She also needs the young vote, which Sanders has. Where is this data on Sanders supporters being independent?

Sanders can be this year's Ralph Nader and then some.

I dont know where you get your info from but most of Sanders wins have come from states with open primaries with high independent turnout or states where there was high voter turnout from young voters/college students (i.e. many people not eligible to vote in 2008). But you tell yourself whatever you want to make yourself feel better

 

[Marvolo]

I dont know where you get your info from but most of Sanders wins have come from states with open primaries with high independent turnout or states where there was high voter turnout from young voters/college students (i.e. many people not eligible to vote in 2008). But you tell yourself whatever you want to make yourself feel better

The GOP fairy visits him at night and whispers this info into his ear.

 

[DDS]

He's an intern for the Trump campaign that isn't even terribly good at his job.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

6 months out.

This chart combines the latest opinion polls using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

If you took the average of every Trump v Clinton poll in the last 45 days, this is the electoral map.

https://mobile.***********/benchmarkpol/status/725376551747985408

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You had to know if Mangar was going to make a post in here, it would be epic. Did not disappoint.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

It helps me sleep at night.

 

[hippie_hunter]

6 months out.



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton



https://mobile.***********/benchmarkpol/status/725376551747985408

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Texas, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, and Arkansas turned blue as well.

 

[DDS]

The blueing/purpling of Arizona is really interesting, especially since the prominent Trump fans like Jane Brewer and Joe Apaio are vocal, a lot of this having to do with border relations in the state. No doubt there is some major Trump backlash too because of the high hispanic population. I'd be curious to see if AZ will continue to turn blue after Trump, or if this is more a spike in response to how many detest him particularly.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I see it as more of a dislike of Trump as opposed to a genuine bluing of Arizona. Arizona is essentially Texas Jr. And like Texas and Georgia, the state becoming genuinely blue, or even a purple swing state, is more of a fantasy than a reality.

 

[SV Fan]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Texas, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, and Arkansas turned blue as well.

By my counts here is how I see States turning Blue(this is from a non Trump vs Clinton perspective)

North Carolina will be the first, Georgia and Arizona will be next, Missouri is next in line, then Indiana, Montana and South Carolina, then surprisingly Mississippi.

All that being said it will be very hard turning any of them after Arizona.

In terms of Trump vs Clinton I think people underrate Trump

I see it as more of a dislike of Trump as opposed to a genuine bluing of Arizona. Arizona is essentially Texas Jr. And like Texas and Georgia, the state becoming genuinely blue, or even a purple swing state, is more of a fantasy than a reality.

I see Arizona more like the bastard child of Colorado and Texas

 

[Kelly]

By my counts here is how I see States turning Blue(this is from a non Trump vs Clinton perspective)

North Carolina will be the first, Georgia and Arizona will be next, Missouri is next in line, then Indiana, Montana and South Carolina, then surprisingly Mississippi.

All that being said it will be very hard turning any of them after Arizona.

In terms of Trump vs Clinton I think people underrate Trump



I see Arizona more like the bastard child of Colorado and Texas

Then how did New Mexico get in between them.....hahahahaha (I'm sorry, that just hit me funny)

 

[SV Fan]

Then how did New Mexico get in between them.....hahahahaha (I'm sorry, that just hit me funny)

New Mexico is more like California and Arizona's bastard child.

All that being said I think Arizona and Georgia are 2 states the democrats really need to start investing money in all elections