Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[Leo Zelinsky]

The general audience has smartened up. Marvel doesn't always mean Marvel

 

[Kuwolski]

China will probably make this profitable. If the reviews are strong in China it may surprise even the optimistic ones. The rest of the world it should do well enough with good reviews. I'd personally be shocked if it did much more then Apocalypse, unless the reviews are really strong.

 

[psylockolussus]

Even if earned 200million something there, Disney would get like 20 to 25% of it. Its not 50/50 or 60/40 compare to American theaters and other international markets.

 

[EnDz0n3]

BoxOffice.com's forecast went up by 6% to $50Mil (from $47Mil) and Domestic total is up 4% to $118Mil. It'll still be the lowest box office cume for the franchise, but beggars can't be choosers.

Pets 2 went down 13% to $70Mil opening.

Let's see how much higher the former goes up and the latter goes down. I could see DPh opening at $55Mil (just barely beating X-men's $54Mil from the year 2000) and Pets going down $60-61Mil.

 

[TMP98]

This is doing huge in China. $100m 4-day wouldn't surprise me.

 

[kevork89]

BoxOffice.com's forecast went up by 6% to $50Mil (from $47Mil) and Domestic total is up 4% to $118Mil. It'll still be the lowest box office cume for the franchise, but beggars can't be choosers.

Pets 2 went down 13% to $70Mil opening.

Let's see how much higher the former goes up and the latter goes down. I could see DPh opening at $55Mil (just barely beating X-men's $54Mil from the year 2000) and Pets going down $60-61Mil.

That’s a bit better. Would love if it went higher but don’t think it will by much.

This is doing huge in China. $100m 4-day wouldn't surprise me.

Cool. China to the rescue lol.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I think a 4-day $100Mil increase from Apocalypse's 3-day $59Mil is a bit much. Not to mention the 44 Million views from China for the DPh trailer was because a social-media starlet told her fans to watch it.

Will Fox/Disney be able to convert a majority of those viewers to paying customers? I have my doubts.

 

[psylockolussus]

BoxOffice.com's forecast went up by 6% to $50Mil (from $47Mil) and Domestic total is up 4% to $118Mil. It'll still be the lowest box office cume for the franchise, but beggars can't be choosers.

Pets 2 went down 13% to $70Mil opening.

Let's see how much higher the former goes up and the latter goes down. I could see DPh opening at $55Mil (just barely beating X-men's $54Mil from the year 2000) and Pets going down $60-61Mil.

I thought pokemon could have opened bigger in North America. It opened with 54 million and I doubt Dark PhoeniX would open bigger especially when its opening against the Secret Life of Pets 2.

 

[Luigi]

50M opening?! Geez, I was thinking along the lines of maybe 80-90M but not that low. Shame that this franchise is ending with a whimper.

 

[Blade Hoarder]

Maybe it's a Justice League scenario? The experts predicted 105 mil, it ended up with 93.

Perhaps Dark Phoenix can reach a new franchise low in the 40's?

It cannot break records upwards, but it may sink and sink downwards.

 

[psylockolussus]

If they committed to that February release date, it might have gotten a decent or bigger opening weekend. Summer 2019 is jam packed. Aladdin, Godzilla, MIB, Secret Life of Pets, Toy Story, Lion King, Spider-Man.... those movies are probably already stealing Dark PhoeniX's thunder right now and not everyone would have the budget/time to watch every film and the public would just pick some of those to watch and skip the rest. I'm already skipping John Wick 3 because I want to watch Endgame again and there's a new movie coming out every week that is already in my watchlist.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The current state of the brand also contributes to first weekend (in addition to marketing, and early unembargoed released reviews are marketing, the calendar also affects the opening - Monday holidays boost opening Sundays, April is super frontloaded, December is its polar opposite, etc.). DoFP didn't help Apocalypse, Apocalypse doesn't D Phoenix. X-Men: Origins Wolverine hurt the Wolverine brand, the next movie Wolverine opened lower. The Wolverine helped, Logan opened higher.

 

[SumT]

The general audience has smartened up. Marvel doesn't always mean Marvel

yeah, the general audience is not as stupid as how Fox or Kinberg thinks.

even if they tried to make Jean look as much as Wanda as posible. or if Disney improve the posters a bit. (just a bit)

 

[itsrivv]

I really think it’s gonna do above expectations. Not like crazy but closer to 60 million. I’ve barely heard anything about this John Wick movie and it’s never been a hugely successful series in the past and it did $57 million opening weekend.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I really think it’s gonna do above expectations. Not like crazy but closer to 60 million. I’ve barely heard anything about this John Wick movie and it’s never been a hugely successful series in the past and it did $57 million opening weekend.

There’s probably people out there who don’t know there’s a new X-men movie coming out. Just because you’ve never heard of something doesn’t mean it doesn’t have fans. Btw each of the John Wick movies have doubled the previous movies’ opening weekends: from $14Mil to 30 to 57. That’s how you build a franchise.

 

[itsrivv]

There’s probably people out there who don’t know there’s a new X-men movie coming out. Just because you’ve never heard of something doesn’t mean it doesn’t have fans. Btw each of the John Wick movies have doubled the previous movies’ opening weekends: from $14Mil to 30 to 57. That’s how you build a franchise.

You're taking my words out of the context of what I was talking about. I'm familiar with the franchise, I just mean the release and marketing definitely felt low-key from my perspective and as a film series that has never had big numbers, it surprised people. The point I was trying to make is that I think Dark Phoenix's numbers will surprise people because the marketing has been pretty good so far and we're still 3 weeks out from release. Especially if Dark Phoenix manages to get good reviews too.

 

[psylockolussus]

The predictions for Logan and Deadpool films might not have been spot on. But the prediction forecast for films like FC, Dofp and Apocalypse were higher than the actual boX office results. I wouldn't be surprised if dark PhoeniX ends up getting a lower gross than most of these forecasts.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

I actually predict its gonna do a lot better opening week than projected. Sure it'll have a huge drop and end up being on the lower end of the franchise. When its all said and done but it wont open as low as they say. Mark my words!

 

[TMP98]

I wouldn't be surprised if this gets decent first reactions. Dumbo got them, and so is Aladdin despite how bad that looks.

 

[Manasrepublic]

50 million is a solid opening. It just needs 4-5 more weekends of 50 million to reach the predicted domestic total.

Disney is doing ok with the marketing but things could be better. The cast alone should draw a massive opening

 

[EnDz0n3]

LOL At least you've lowered your 6 weekends of $50Mil, to 4-5 weekends.

Because NEITHER scenario is happening.

 

[psylockolussus]

4 to 5 weekends of 50 million? not in the summer season and not in this franchise.

 

[EnDz0n3]

 

[itsrivv]

Anyone know the actual budget for the film? I know its been reported near $200 million but I really can’t imagine fox putting that much into it after Apocalypse underperformed

 

[EnDz0n3]

The mayor of Montreal quoted $150Million but this was in 2017, BEFORE the reshoots. There’s also the issue of if he meant US $ or Can $