Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[Frankeh]

(like we seen with the poor quality Wonder Woman, celebrate in usa only 'cause it has a strong female character)

 

[Hand Banana]

In normal circumstances, I would probably say somewhere between $450 million and $550 million based on previous films and especially the performance of Apocalypse as a lead in.

However, if it does end up getting announced that Marvel is getting the rights back and this is a lame duck franchise about to be rebooted the second credits roll, then I think the box office could totally collapse, especially domestically. Maybe half of what it would otherwise get. It would destroy interest in this film, which is rather tepid to begin with.

The MCU is massively popular among general audience. So if a deal is made, doesn't matter if Feige announces the first X-Men movie only for 2035, the internet will go crazy with the X-Men joining the MCU. Well, the deal isn't even made yet and all the news about it from entertainment sites mention the X-Men.

And there is a general frustration when it comes to the X-Men movies, despite how good some of them are. Especially among comic book movie fans. And we know the CBM fans make or kill the hype of any movie. See the Apocalypse/Ivan Ooze jokes.

So if an announcement is made, the internet will go crazy and CBM fans will explode from excitement. That mixed with all the frustrations from Singerverse and the bad taste from Apocalypse... The deal could definitely affect the box office. Just think about the power of Ivan Ooze jokes.

Most audiences don’t even listen to news like that and don’t even know that these are separate universes. Even Kevin Fiege thinks so.

But doesn’t really matter. The deal won’t be finalized and assets won’t be required by Disney until around 2019(lots of paperwork), let alone Marvel. The movie would already been out by then.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Well look at logan, it was Jackmans last movie but people didn't look at it with dismay because it wasn't gonna lead to another movie for him.

Personally i still don't think the final result of this deal will be what many expected

The big difference is that Jackman (and Stewart) were very popular in their roles (even when their movies weren't great, it was almost universally agreed that they personally were). So being the last film with them in it, would generate additional interest over the average installment. See the big increase for Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2 for the same thing happening.

This is not the case with Dark Phoenix. As much as I like McAvoy and Fassbender, none of this cast has achieved the same iconic status of Jackman. And the general response is less that we have to see the end of the story and more it can't burn down quick enough so we can get to the MCU version. That doesn't bode well for big box office numbers.

Another thing working against this film that I forgot to mention before, is the sense of been there/done that. No matter what happens with Disney, it doesn't change the fact that this is the second time in this franchise about Dark Phoenix. Even if it is done better this time it will still hit many of the same story beats. The story just isn't fresh or different whereas Logan was.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Most audiences don’t even listen to news like that and don’t even know that these are separate universes. Even Kevin Fiege thinks so.

They definitely know they are separate universes. If they didn't, films like Doctor Strange and Guardians of the Galaxy wouldn't be making so much money in their first installments when nobody has heard of them. Guardians of the Galaxy had a larger opening weekend than the freakin' Justice League. Ant-Man of all things had a higher domestic gross than X-Men Apocalypse. Spider-Man Homecoming jumped $170 million over TASM2.

Audiences know. Or at least enough know to make a big difference.

 

[Hand Banana]

The big difference is that Jackman (and Stewart) were very popular in their roles (even when their movies weren't great, it was almost universally agreed that they personally were). So being the last film with them in it, would generate additional interest over the average installment. See the big increase for Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2 for the same thing happening.

This is not the case with Dark Phoenix. As much as I like McAvoy and Fassbender, none of this cast has achieved the same iconic status of Jackman. And the general response is less that we have to see the end of the story and more it can't burn down quick enough so we can get to the MCU version. That doesn't bode well for big box office numbers.

Another thing working against this film that I forgot to mention before, is the sense of been there/done that. No matter what happens with Disney, it doesn't change the fact that this is the second time in this franchise about Dark Phoenix. Even if it is done better this time it will still hit many of the same story beats. The story just isn't fresh or different whereas Logan was.

That wasn’t really Stewart’s last movie. He just doesn’t want to have a major role in the films. He’s said he would love to show up in Deadpool or Legion. I doubt most audiences even knew that was Jackman’s last movie. The majority doesn’t really follow movie news from my experience. Unless it was in explicitly stated in the marketing like with Harry Potter, which I don’t recall for Logan. Also, everyone knew Deathly Hollows was the final film because it’s also the final book.

I also doubt most audiences even remember X3. It was a forgettable movie from over 12 years ago. A lot of people didn’t even remember major plot points from DOFP. As shown by people being baffled by Logan and Xavier remembering the old timeline.

 

[Hand Banana]

They definitely know they are separate universes. If they didn't, films like Doctor Strange and Guardians of the Galaxy wouldn't be making so much money in their first installments when nobody has heard of them. Guardians of the Galaxy had a larger opening weekend than the freakin' Justice League. Ant-Man of all things had a higher domestic gross than X-Men Apocalypse. Spider-Man Homecoming jumped $170 million over TASM2.

Audiences know. Or at least enough know to make a big difference.

There have been movies that have made way more money than Doctor Strange and Guardian of the Galaxy that weren’t even based any property. Such as the first Star Wars, Avatar, and ET etc. A movie having amazing marketing, visuals, and word of mouth can easily get lots of butts in sits to see first installments and that is what Guardians and Strange had.

And being in the MCU doesn’t necessarily mean a much bigger audience. Adjusted inflation shows that Homecoming is far inferior to all the Raimi films and just a little above ASM1. Some argue that AMS2 did damaged the brand others say franchise fatigue.

 

[Sithborg]

Marketing is off to a better start, at least. That will help.

 

[X-Maniac]

Marketing is off to a better start, at least. That will help.

They would be dimmer than King Dim of Planet Dim if they allowed a crap picture like the Purple Apocalypse/Ivan Ooze disaster to be released.

The Phoenix pic of Sophie is visually striking though nothing mind-blowing for someone called Phoenix to be on fire.

The space pic looks more like artwork than a shot from the movie, as Phoenix looks cartoonish in it.

The shot of Mystique on the shuttle is an odd choice. Are they trying to show us the make-up is better? Is it because her character is once again so central?

Are they trying to remind audiences of the fact that this is the Highest Paid Actress In The World Who Won An Oscar And Is Supposed To Be Fantastic (but isn't really)?

 

[kineticist]

The space pic is artwork.

 

[X-Maniac]

Obviously, she's a huge draw. Several JLaw fansites were sharing those pictures, promoting the film while at it. She apparently didn't shoot all that much though. Not a lead.

It's hard to believe she is not a lead, but fingers crossed.

So that would mean the leads are Sophie, probably Fassbender and maybe one or two others. Can't see Chastain being a lead if her character is sneaking around being manipulative.

Off-topic, but have you seen Jennifer's David O. Russell pictures? She's fantastic.

I'm not really a fan of J-Law. I saw Winter's Bone and wasn't that impressed. She often has a peculiar sullen facial expression - it's in that Mystique shot from Dark Phoenix, it was seen in Passengers a lot too.

If she really owned the Mystique role, i would be a bit happier. But I'm not content with her Raven/Mystique being prioritised over the key X-Men.

 

[Ordet]

JL is a great actress and she is very good with O. Russel, especially in Joy.

 

[DACrowe]

It is understandable that you feel that way, but it is the modern reality that blockbusters are heading towards the more serial model as opposed to individual stories, whether it be Marvel, Star Wars, Fast & Furious, etc. There will always be a place for individual films, but the days of companies looking to spend $200 million on a standalone film are going the way of the dinosaur.

Agreed. This is one of the things Nolan was getting at about the "luxuries" he had on TDKT. It is also why we will rarely get movies that good nowadays. Notably, Wonder Woman is fairly standalone save for the tacked on wrap around. Given how miserably the rest of that universe has gone, I suspect Jenkins will continue to make each movie its own individual epic. Which is why I have more hope for that sequel than most.

 

[DACrowe]

Another thing working against this film that I forgot to mention before, is the sense of been there/done that. No matter what happens with Disney, it doesn't change the fact that this is the second time in this franchise about Dark Phoenix. Even if it is done better this time it will still hit many of the same story beats. The story just isn't fresh or different whereas Logan was.

Well unlike the Disney deal, this is something Fox (or whoever ends up marketing it) can fix... assuming the movie is good. I think back to The Dark Knight using the Joker again after (unlike X3) a beloved take on the clown in B'89. I also think of TDKR using Catwoman. Even Spider-Man: Homecoming reintroducing the character (even if he had a previous cameo) for the third time in 15 years falls into this camp.

You make it look different and like a wildly new take on this idea, it can intrigue folks. The same way Logan benefitted from looking unlike any superhero movie ever made. Of course, that is also on Kinberg to deliver something strikingly unique that you can market it as a totally different beast. I actually think that EW cover is a step in the right direction. It caught everyone's attention. It is an evocative image. If that is actually the tone and approach to the character, and the trailer can convey that, I think it will go a long way in the marketing, at least with the general audience.

Around here, any flash of Jennifer Lawrence or Phoenix in a non-green or reddish black costume will result in the same old same old.

 

[Hand Banana]

Yeah, there actually is a lot of plot similarities between Batman 89 and The Dark Knight.

 

[EnDz0n3]

X3 is no Batman '89, lol.

 

[Iceman]

Well unlike the Disney deal, this is something Fox (or whoever ends up marketing it) can fix... assuming the movie is good. I think back to The Dark Knight using the Joker again after (unlike X3) a beloved take on the clown in B'89. I also think of TDKR using Catwoman. Even Spider-Man: Homecoming reintroducing the character (even if he had a previous cameo) for the third time in 15 years falls into this camp.

You make it look different and like a wildly new take on this idea, it can intrigue folks. The same way Logan benefitted from looking unlike any superhero movie ever made. Of course, that is also on Kinberg to deliver something strikingly unique that you can market it as a totally different beast. I actually think that EW cover is a step in the right direction. It caught everyone's attention. It is an evocative image. If that is actually the tone and approach to the character, and the trailer can convey that, I think it will go a long way in the marketing, at least with the general audience.

Around here, any flash of Jennifer Lawrence or Phoenix in a non-green or reddish black costume will result in the same old same old.

Villains reappearing obviously isn't that big a deal. Look at Mystique and Magneto!

A specific storyline involving one of the hero characters turning into a being of crazy power and putting the world at risk before dying is a little more of a noticeable (and significant) repeat I think.

 

[DACrowe]

Villains reappearing obviously isn't that big a deal. Look at Mystique and Magneto!

A specific storyline involving one of the hero characters turning into a being of crazy power and putting the world at risk before dying is a little more of a noticeable (and significant) repeat I think.

I guess I disagree since Phoenix was (a poorly managed) subplot in TLS. One who never even lit aflame. The main thing was the cure. Or was it Magneto's revolution? No wait, maybe it was Xavier... wait, did Xavier die before then too?

No one remembered or cared TLS killed off Xavier when Logan came out. Because it was a half-assed plot point in a bad movie that only fanboys like ourselves still remember or discuss. Same goes with Phoenix. If a trailer drops of Sophie Turner going the full Star Child from 2001 in space (except being a floating naked young woman instead of a baby, because tickets) that looks cool? I think that is a pretty strong hook.

Saying it has been done before is pointing out Batman is looking for the Joker again or dancing with Selena Kyle at a masquerade ball. Execution, and execution of marketing, is key.

 

[psylockolussus]

It is understandable that you feel that way, but it is the modern reality that blockbusters are heading towards the more serial model as opposed to individual stories, whether it be Marvel, Star Wars, Fast & Furious, etc. There will always be a place for individual films, but the days of companies looking to spend $200 million on a standalone film are going the way of the dinosaur.

There's nothing wrong with heavily serialized film.series and it makes more exciting to see the story of the characters progress than future unologies like the New Mutants and Gambit (if it starts filming in less than six months).

 

[Hand Banana]

Villains reappearing obviously isn't that big a deal. Look at Mystique and Magneto!

A specific storyline involving one of the hero characters turning into a being of crazy power and putting the world at risk before dying is a little more of a noticeable (and significant) repeat I think.

Batman and The Dark Knight didn’t just use the same villian but had the same premise: The Joker shows up causing havoc on Gotham, attacking both innocents and mobsters, Batman must stop him. Both even end with Joker falling off a building.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Saying it has been done before is pointing out Batman is looking for the Joker again or dancing with Selena Kyle at a masquerade ball. Execution, and execution of marketing, is key.

I actually forgot they did the Bruce and Selena dance in both Batman returns and TDKR.

 

[Iceman]

Batman and The Dark Knight didn’t just use the same villian but had the same premise: The Joker shows up causing havoc on Gotham, attacking both innocents and mobsters, Batman must stop him. Both even end with Joker falling off a building.

Yes but is Batman and the Joker falling off a building an iconic storyline? The equivalent to doing Dark Phoenix in quick succession would be doing something like The Killing Joke storyline with specific story beats 11 years apart.

 

[Ordet]

X3 had very few things of Dark Phoenix.

There is no space, no aliens and neither the Dark Phoenix was a very menace (that was the core of comics sotry): she was only a weapon in the cure-storyline.

 

[Iceman]

I guess I disagree since Phoenix was (a poorly managed) subplot in TLS. One who never even lit aflame. The main thing was the cure. Or was it Magneto's revolution? No wait, maybe it was Xavier... wait, did Xavier die before then too?

No one remembered or cared TLS killed off Xavier when Logan came out. Because it was a half-assed plot point in a bad movie that only fanboys like ourselves still remember or discuss. Same goes with Phoenix. If a trailer drops of Sophie Turner going the full Star Child from 2001 in space (except being a floating naked young woman instead of a baby, because tickets) that looks cool? I think that is a pretty strong hook.

Saying it has been done before is pointing out Batman is looking for the Joker again or dancing with Selena Kyle at a masquerade ball. Execution, and execution of marketing, is key.

Yeah I accept that the whole thing became a condensed mix of too many stories reducing the impact of being told a full on DP story. I don't agree with the other comparisons at all as it seems like people aren't really understanding what I'm getting at (and it's not an important enough point to be worth any more effort) but to say the DP story didn't register/resonate first time due to being compressed in with other major storylines and therefore that a retread is not such a big deal is a fair point.

 

[SumT]

I can easily see this one doing more than Apocalypse. Its not that hard after all lol.
XMA was one the lowest bo cbm hits of last years, so if Dark phoenix trailers are much better, with more impressive shots, firebird, flying mutants, new costumes and all.... the audience may be more interested than in Apocalypse.

after all Xma had mutants in back costumes doing not so great things int he trailers, so it would be pretty easy to top that with XDP trailers/spots. And general audience now is a bit more familiar with this young X-Men, after watching it on dvd or tv, so that might help a bit too. It doesnt matter if they arent big stars yet, tv airings and dvd probably brought new viewers, young viewers too, and may go to the theatre next time around.

I woulnd be surprised if it makes $600m, tbh.

 

[Iceman]

X3 had very few things of Dark Phoenix.

There is no space, no aliens and neither the Dark Phoenix was a very menace (that was the core of comics sotry): she was only a weapon in the cure-storyline.

These are all true. You can do a Joker story every 10 years, just not the same specific Joker story. And in this case I think due to DP being told in such a weird way before, we can hope that if it is told definitively this time with all the more out-there aspects above and no other major stories like The Cure getting in the way, that it can be unburdened from the X3 version.