Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[I Am The Knight]

So China won't save this movie's box office as they kept telling us?

 

[Kuwolski]

Damn. That was going to be the market that could make this film turn a profit in the end. Maybe good reviews could help give it a boost, but the GA interest seems to be at an all time low for this franchise. If only they were as excited as a handful of posters are in here.

The film actually looks better then Apocalypse ever did though, so there is that.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Yea looks like they weren't able to convert those "44, 45 million views of the trailer in China alone" that Kinberg was boasting about into actual paying customers.

Of course there is the off chance that Gavin Feng is wrong. He was wrong with his Pokemon numbers. His forecasted $50-60Mil vs. $39Mil opening weekend (though he did say both Pikachu and DPh would do phenomenal in China).

 

[Detective Conan]

This is the very same Gavin Feng who reported Dark Phoenix was among the most anticipated foreign movies for Chinese audiences along with movies like Captain Marvel and Endgame.

And of course Alita was also among those movies and that movie was still a major financial failure that lost money. Dark Phoenix I forsee having a decent opening weekend in China but it would not surprise me if it couldn’t even beat what Apocalyse made, especially if the word of mouth is not strong. It will definitely make more than Shazam( but that cost significantly less to make than this movie does) and it’s a coin toss if it will even beat it’s predecessor’s overall gross in that territory.

All in all, foreign studios only receive about 25% of the money they make in China with their movies so Phoenix still needs to have a strong run domestically in order for it to be profitable which I don’t see it having since it’s being released in such a packed summer.

 

[Kuwolski]

Will be interesting to track. A 70 m 4-day would be nothing to sneeze at. DoFP made 40 m over 3 days.

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[EnDz0n3]

Certainly not the big win Kinberg wanted us to believe (China had 44 Million trailer views, you guys!) Apocalypse, in 2016 made $59Mil its opening weekend. Considering the Chinese box office is known for its massive year over year increases for these franchise films, a $1-6Mil top up is peanuts.

Dark Phoenix was also moved from the less-crowded February release so the movie can enjoy same day and date all over the world, and especially for China and this Dragon Boat Festival Long Weekend. Yes, that $60-65Mil is for the 3 days but...what a mess. The next numbers to watch is the theatre count. Kinberg also said the movie was moved to take advantage of the increased screens they acquired from Gambit's June 6th date. The theatre close to me doesn't even have any Dark Phoenix screenings, so far.

 

[Dumain]

Certainly not the big win Kinberg wanted us to believe (China had 44 Million trailer views, you guys!) Apocalypse, in 2016 made $59Mil its opening weekend. Considering the Chinese box office is known for its massive year over year increases for these franchise films, a $1-6Mil top up is peanuts.

Dark Phoenix was also moved from the less-crowded February release so the movie can enjoy same day and date all over the world, and especially for China and this Dragon Boat Festival Long Weekend. Yes, that $60-65Mil is for the 3 days but...what a mess. The next numbers to watch is the theatre count. Kinberg also said the movie was moved to take advantage of the increased screens they acquired from Gambit's June 6th date. The theatre close to me doesn't even have any Dark Phoenix screenings, so far.

60 million China OW is not fantastic, but solid given the bad reception to Apocalypse and how badly everyone is rooting for Dark Phoenix to fail.

 

[EnDz0n3]

60 million China OW is not fantastic, but solid given the bad reception to Apocalypse and how badly everyone is rooting for Dark Phoenix to fail.

Do you think the Chinese audience members care what US social media and traditional media in the US thinks of Dark Phoenix? I can guarantee you the Chinese market did not care that Apocalypse was received poorly in the US. Why do you think Apocalypse opened to the tune of $59Mil when Days of Future Past, the better movie by any measure, only did $39Mil (Monday to Sunday!)?

Why do you think Kinberg was banking on the Chinese market to save this movie, even knowing Apocalypse was not beloved in North America? Because Kinberg wanted an excuse to move the movie to June because he couldn't finish it in time, that's why. To him, the 44 Million trailer views in China was a good reason (see: excuse).

 

[Dumain]

Do you think the Chinese audience members care what US social media and traditional media in the US thinks of Dark Phoenix? I can guarantee you the Chinese market did not care that Apocalypse was received poorly in the US. Why do you think Apocalypse opened to the tune of $59Mil when Days of Future Past, the better movie by any measure, only did $39Mil (Monday to Sunday!)?

Why do you think Kinberg was banking on the Chinese market to save this movie, even knowing Apocalypse was not beloved in North America? Because Kinberg wanted an excuse to move the movie to June because he couldn't finish it in time, that's why. To him, the 44 Million trailer views in China was a good reason (see: excuse).

The Chinese people don't care about US social media because they have their own social media. And Apocalypse probably opened much higher than DoFP because of the goodwill of DoFP and because the Chinese market love effects heavy spectacles.

But there was probably no goodwill from Apocalypse because that movie failed to make much of an impact and Dark Phoenix will be paying the price.

 

[Kuwolski]

Certainly not the big win Kinberg wanted us to believe (China had 44 Million trailer views, you guys!) Apocalypse, in 2016 made $59Mil its opening weekend. Considering the Chinese box office is known for its massive year over year increases for these franchise films, a $1-6Mil top up is peanuts.

Dark Phoenix was also moved from the less-crowded February release so the movie can enjoy same day and date all over the world, and especially for China and this Dragon Boat Festival Long Weekend. Yes, that $60-65Mil is for the 3 days but...what a mess. The next numbers to watch is the theatre count. Kinberg also said the movie was moved to take advantage of the increased screens they acquired from Gambit's June 6th date. The theatre close to me doesn't even have any Dark Phoenix screenings, so far.

The 60-65 million is projected over 4 days. A solid number all things considered, but Apocalypse did make a similar number over 3 days.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Ah yes June 6-9, 4-day weekend. My bad. That’s even worse considering locking the Dragon Boat Festival weekend was supposed to be a big win.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm predicting a $40million plus opening weekend in the U.S. then worldwide opening weekend, if China doesn't bring the heavy amount of $$$, I see it opening, under 200 million worldwide and we know how X-Men team films are notorious for their bad legs/big drops so those numbers wouldn't be good. I'm curious how Godzilla 2 and Secret Life of Pets 2 will affect Dark PhoeniX, I don't see Godzilla 2 overperforming but that would probably hit Dark PhoeniX as both are blockbusters. While more kids and families would probably choose to watch Secret Life over Dark PhoeniX given how successful the first film was. MIBI is a non factor to me, but like Godzilla 2, there's a chance it would eat Dark PhoeniX's target audience when it opens. Toy Story 4 would probably lead to a really small 4th weekend numbers for Dark PhoeniX, so thats another thing. By July, its gonna be all about the Lion King and Spider-Man.

 

[Spidey 2007]

This will pretty much live or die by that dang tomato meter and positive word of mouth. If word spreads that it's actually good, people will turn out and give it a strong second weekend.

 

[EnDz0n3]

We'll see but the X-men movies are known for having bad legs, though. Even with an underperformer like MIB (it's being forecast to make $40Mil opening weekend for this Hemsworth/Thompson-starrer), Dark Phoenix will still have a 60-70% decrease on its second weekend. DOFP, even with its CinemaScore of A still had a 64% decrease. Most people who watch these X-men movies already see them on its first weekend. Fox's X-men franchise is notorious for having very low multipliers.

I just looked at the June release schedule. Will this be one of the lowest-grossing Junes in a while?

 

[Manasrepublic]

So with 4 weekends of consistent $40-50 million we are looking at a win. The reviews for this seem like they will be a huge win. People who loved this film will watch it again. I predict a $250 mill gross domestic run

 

[Spidey 2007]

We'll see but the X-men movies are known for having bad legs, though. Even with an underperformer like MIB (it's being forecast to make $40Mil opening weekend for this Hemsworth/Thompson-starrer), Dark Phoenix will still have a 60-70% decrease on its second weekend. DOFP, even with its CinemaScore of A still had a 64% decrease. Most people who watch these X-men movies already see them on its first weekend. Fox's X-men franchise is notorious for having very low multipliers.

I just looked at the June release schedule. Will this be one of the lowest-grossing Junes in a while?

Yep I know, but even Fox X-Men fans are simply waiting on reviews for this one. If it reviews well, IF, and I mean REALLY well, the second weekend won't be nearly as huge of a drop. Only example I can think of something similar happening is First Class. Yet still a bit different, since this franchise is over & FC was a new beginning with a better team behind it. It depends on if a curtain call is more enticing than a "reboot" to audiences that are interested. IF DP gets good reviews similar to First Class.

If it doesn't, which is far more likely, it's royally F'ed. No way around it.

Absolutely no way in hell will it maintain 4 straight 50 million weekends through out June. That just won't happen. The second weekend might be much bigger than expected to compensate for the opening, a little, then it will fall like a god damn rock.

 

[Carlo Comicus]

According to Gavin Feng, the tracking for Dark Phoenix in China is 60-65 milions dollars. I think it's good.

 

[Raiders]

North America, $350 mil
Rest of the world, $650 mil
Total, one billion
Europe, Asia and Australia will come out big for this movie.
That why most of the marketing is not in NA.

 

[shinlyle]

This will be lucky to hit 200 million domestic. WW, I don't know. I wouldn't expect more than 600-700 million, honestly. That may be generous. The delays and such have robbed it of its momentum.
That being said, if it gets solid reviews, and WOM, it may do better. However, it actually has to not suck, which may be a tall order for this franchise post-Apocalypse.

 

[psylockolussus]

It would be lucky to get $150 million in North America.

 

[psylockolussus]

North America, $350 mil
Rest of the world, $650 mil
Total, one billion
Europe, Asia and Australia will come out big for this movie.
That why most of the marketing is not in NA.

Dofp, despite all the buzz and good reviews couldnt outgross X3 yet Dark Phoenix would gross 350 million in North America?

 

[shinlyle]

It would be lucky to get $150 million in North America.

Agreed...I was just trying to be nice.

Also, they are already on damage control, which isn't helping. The blame game has started...and it's all downhill from there.

I guess we're just doomed to never get a good version of the Phoenix saga...mostly because it should be a 2 film story or a trilogy...made by consistent and competent filmmakers.

DARK PHOENIX Ending Was Changed Due to Similarities With Another Superhero Movie

 

[EnDz0n3]

North America, $350 mil
Rest of the world, $650 mil
Total, one billion
Europe, Asia and Australia will come out big for this movie.
That why most of the marketing is not in NA.

LOL You say the marketing is not that big in NA but you think it'll still make $350Mil here? Looks like you're just throwing out numbers that add up to a Billion because Reasons.

 

[Superhero 101]

North America, $350 mil
Rest of the world, $650 mil
Total, one billion
Europe, Asia and Australia will come out big for this movie.
That why most of the marketing is not in NA.

This does bring a smile to my face