Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[Spider-Fan]

North America, $350 mil
Rest of the world, $650 mil
Total, one billion
Europe, Asia and Australia will come out big for this movie.
That why most of the marketing is not in NA.

This movie is not doing 1 billion. No X-Men film has managed that. It certainly won't make $350 domestically if it only manages around 40-45 mil OW. Unless it has historically low drops, which won't happen.

For reference:



I am seeing this grossing somewhere between X3 and Apocalypse.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

My guess is...
Domestic: $200m
WW: $600m

 

[shinlyle]

This movie is not doing 1 billion. No X-Men film has managed that. It certainly won't make $350 domestically if it only manages around 40-45 mil OW. Unless it has historically low drops, which won't happen.

For reference:

View attachment 25593

I am seeing this grossing somewhere between X3 and Apocalypse.

I was hoping someone else would point that out. The only way an X-Men movie would clear a billion is for Fox to get bought out by Disney, and for them to reboot the franchise and include it in the MCU...just sayin'...

 

[Filmfan93]

My guess is...
Domestic: $200m
WW: $600m

$600 million seems far too much.

Apocalypse got $543 million and this already looks to have less hype than that.

Not to mention MIB is released the following weekend and Toy Story 4 the one after.

I would say $500 million at the most.

 

[TMP98]

Not to mention MIB is released the following weekend and Toy Story 4 the one after.

MiB is going to bomb so hard, but Toy Story 4 is gonna open to $130m at the very least. Most likely $150m.

 

[Filmfan93]

MiB is going to bomb so hard, but Toy Story 4 is gonna open to $130m at the very least. Most likely $150m.

MiB will still eat a slice of Dark Phoenix's pie at the BO.

 

[EnDz0n3]

TS4 is already breaking records. Though after how well they wrapped up the franchise with Part 3, I don’t really want to see another Toy Story.

At least Sony had enough awareness to not give MIB International too high a budget. I mean, $110Mil still a bit high for what amounts to a poor man’s Thor Ragnarok (without the Marvel brand, without Feige, without the aesthetics) but it’s not $200Mil Dark Phoenix-high. Between MIB and the Tiffany Haddish comedy, Hemsworth needs a new agent, and I don’t mean Agent K.

 

[TMP98]

At least Sony had enough awareness to not give MIB International too high a budget. I mean, $110Mil still a bit high for what amounts to a poor man’s Thor Ragnarok (without the Marvel brand, without Feige, without the aesthetics) but it’s not $200Mil Dark Phoenix-high. Between MIB and the Tiffany Haddish comedy, Hemsworth needs a new agent, and I don’t mean Agent K.

That Tiffany Haddish comedy is gonna make more money than MiB and cost 1/3 as much. Hemsworth also has that Hulk Hogan biopic from Netflix and Todd Phillips fresh off the Joker. Though, for Joker it looks like Joaquin Phoenix is gonna have to do the heavy lifting - and as much as I like Hemsworth, he's no Joaquin Phoenix.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I forgot about the Hulk Hogan biopic. That's a good get for sure.

I like Hemsworth but it looks like he's all in on the buddy comedy thing but I think he's better than that. That said he's tried out the action star role, and outside of the MCU movies he hasn't really made bank.

You're right about the Haddish budget and eventual BO though.

 

[Dimahoo]

At this point, it doesn't matter if the movie flops or not. This is the last X-Men- Fox movie, and whatever it makes, goes all to Disney now.

It'll get a reboot. So, this movie will probably get a boost from classic X-Men fans who have watched the series since the beginning, and then it'll die fast at box office.

If it gets good reviews, it's at least something to go out with a bang. If it doesn't get reviews, no problem at all. I'll be watching it in 3 days. It was a ride.

 

[Davidstorm]

the fight of DP vs SLOP2 by # 1 will be interesting to follow
both are performing poorly on the pre-sale (DP slightly better but not at all encouraging)
in the group that I attend on the box office are putting DP with something between 40-47m and SLOP 45-55m ..

and about MIB this movie is having a simply disastrous pre-sale, they are predicting something around 20-25m OW for this.

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-01 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK PERCENT TICKETS MOVIE
1 24.012% 18345 Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
2 22.621% 17282 Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3 18.173% 13884 Rocketman
4 10.145% 7751 Ma (2019)
5 07.647% 5842 John Wick Chapter 3
6 05.374% 4106 Avengers Endgame (2019)
7 03.151% 2407 Detective Pikachu
8 02.427% 1854 Booksmart
9 01.309% 1000 Brightburn
10 00.911% 696 Dark Phoenix [combined]

 

[TMP98]

and about MIB this movie is having a simply disastrous pre-sale, they are predicting something around 20-25m OW for this.

Yeah, 25-30m looks likely. That Shaft film might even out-gross it opening weekend despite costing $80m less

 

[Davidstorm]

Godzilla is doing below-expected performance in most markets, I hope this helps DP internationally.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Even with the middling boxoffice for Godzilla before it, a lower than expected cume for Secret Life during and a horrendous MIB after it, it's doubtful Dark Phoenix will over perform.

Might mean a bad month overall. Will surely give June 2014 a run for its money.

 

[Dimahoo]

Why is Secret Life of Pets 2 tracking so poorly? I mean, I assume general audiences enjoyed the first one, and even the reviews weren't that bad ( movie was certified fresh, with 73% on RT )...That's very surprising.

I understand why is Dark Phoenix tracking poorly, though. I mean, Apocalypse had a very mixed reaction from general audiences, Logan was basically the end of the original franchise as we knew it ( finishing Wolverine's and Xavier's arcs ) and Marvel already has the X-Men back to home. So, I can perfectly understand and respect those who are tired of the old Fox X-Men movies.

That being said, it doesn't matter if Dark Phoenix flops or not. The X-Men will be rebooted, this is the final X-Men from Fox. So, whatever this movie makes, it goes to Disney's pockets. This movie can be a failure without damaging anything. I'll enjoy it and that's it.

 

[EnDz0n3]

The original opened to over $100Mil and the sequel is only expected to do $70Mil. Certainly nothing to sneeze at though.

I think it's more a case of the novelty has worn off. I mean if you're an audience member and you're looking for talking animals and animals going on adventures, is that really a less catered-to audience?

And I disagree, Dark Phoenix can very much still damage the IP.

 

[psylockolussus]

That being said, it doesn't matter if Dark Phoenix flops or not. The X-Men will be rebooted, this is the final X-Men from Fox. So, whatever this movie makes, it goes to Disney's pockets. This movie can be a failure without damaging anything. I'll enjoy it and that's it.

It matters, because when people look back at the series, we will, Dark PhoeniX flopping will never sound good or okay for the series which was successful in the past. And which studio wants the final film to be a flop at the box office, especially for a 20 year old franchise.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

$600 million seems far too much.

Apocalypse got $543 million and this already looks to have less hype than that.

Not to mention MIB is released the following weekend and Toy Story 4 the one after.

I would say $500 million at the most.

Fair point. Definitely think $600m is its absolute upper limit.

Sorta sad that essentially the final film in the franchise seems to have such low hopes.

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[Raiders]

Embargo will lift 1:00am EDT and 10:00pm PDT.

 

[lastairbender]

What amazes me is that SLP2 is having almost mores1000 theatres than DP.

3500 is very low for this kind of movie.. dont understand..

 

[psylockolussus]

But the series’ final installment will be a far cry from its box office peak. The film is estimated for an opening of $55 million, which is only slightly better than the series low opening of $53 million earned in 2013 by “The Wolverine.” The studio is projecting between $40-50 million for “Dark Phoenix” domestically in over 3,700 locations.

'Secret Life of Pets 2' and 'Dark Phoenix' Vie for Top Spot in Crowded Box Office

 

[Spidey 2007]

Embargo will lift 1:00am EDT and 10:00pm PDT.
EARLY REACTION IS OVERWHELMING POSITIVE.
Some are saying it’s the best superhero movie of the year.

It's not overwhelmingly positive, unfortunately.

 

[TheVileOne]

Is worst X-Men movie ever positive?

 

[EnDz0n3]

Will this movie even make $50Mil opening weekend? Even the originally forecasted $47Mil is in doubt. Yikes. At the very least this will top Fan4stic's $25Mil opening weekend but that's hardly a win.