Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[DarthSkywalker]

Will this movie even make $50Mil opening weekend? Even the originally forecasted $47Mil is in doubt. Yikes. At the very least this will top Fan4stic's $25Mil opening weekend but that's hardly a win.

I wonder. Especially with Secret Life of Pets 2 hitting on the same day.

 

[psylockolussus]

MiB will still eat a slice of Dark Phoenix's pie at the BO.

It will.

Will this movie even make $50Mil opening weekend? Even the originally forecasted $47Mil is in doubt. Yikes. At the very least this will top Fan4stic's $25Mil opening weekend but that's hardly a win.

The really bad reviews, that 17% would hurt the opening weekend.

 

[TheGuy]

Worst case for DP is it makes around Fant4stic numbers. Maximum is below 300m. Internationally, this will still make decent numbers, but overall this will be a net loss considering marketing and theater shares.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Anyone still want to be tossing out $1 billion dollar predictions?

 

[EnDz0n3]

Overheard: “$120Mil 4-day opening weekend in China!”

Kinberg: Not if I can help it!

 

[shinlyle]

Anyone still want to be tossing out $1 billion dollar predictions?

Bring some aloe, if you gonna burn folk like that!

 

[Raiders]

Anyone still want to be tossing out $1 billion dollar predictions?

I’m not anymore, it will be hard to make $300 million worldwide with the terrible RT score. But that’s not going to stop me from being there on opening night.

 

[Iceman]

What is the expectation for strictly US numbers? I haven't been paying attention.

 

[Spider-Fan]

What is the expectation for strictly US numbers? I haven't been paying attention.

Per Variety

“Dark Phoenix,” the first X-Men installment and blockbuster-hopeful to be released by Disney since the studio’s completed merger with 20th Century Fox, is touching down in 3,700 theaters. Disney is more cautiously estimating a start between $40 million and $50 million. That would rank as one of the franchise’s lowest openings, in line with 2013’s “The Wolverine” ($53 million), 2000’s “X-Men” ($54 million) and 2011’s “X-Men: First Class” ($55 million). “Dark Phoenix,” the 12th installment in the Marvel-owned series, is a direct sequel to 2016’s “X-Men: Apocalypse.” That film bowed with $65 million and went on to earn $543 million in ticket sales worldwide.

So looking at 40-50 mil in the US as of right now. But, I am thinking it may go lower. Like $35 mil maybe. Given this RT score, I expect bad WoM.

 

[Raiders]

What is the expectation for strictly US numbers? I haven't been paying attention.

Now it looks like only $35-$40 million at best

 

[EnDz0n3]

With a $40Mil opening this movie is going to limp to get to the Century mark. Will it even make $90Mil?

And here we thought MIB International was the one to watch.

 

[TMP98]

And here we thought MIB International was the one to watch.

MiB is tracking for a $20m opening... bad time for wannabe blockbusters

 

[Iceman]

Per Variety



So looking at 40-50 mil in the US as of right now. But, I am thinking it may go lower. Like $35 mil maybe. Given this RT score, I expect bad WoM.

Now it looks like only $35-$40 million at best

Thanks for those. Not too hot at all.

 

[Iceman]

MiB is tracking for a $20m opening... bad time for wannabe blockbusters

Damn! After all those adverts with Endgame too. It doesn't sound the like the kind of film with a minimal budget either.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Damn! After all those adverts with Endgame too. It doesn't sound the like the kind of film with a minimal budget either.

My very basic Google search shows a budget of around $110 for MiB:I but I am sure that excludes marketing expenses.

 

[EnDz0n3]

$110Mil certainly nothing to sneeze at but not as embarrassing as Phoenix’s $150Mil+ pre-reshoots.

MiB is tracking for a $20m opening... bad time for wannabe blockbusters

Ouch.

Will DPh give Hulk a run for its money when it comes to second weekend declines? IIRC that was 69%. A similar decline from a very optimistic $55Mil opening will give DPh $17Mil second weekend. With $40Mil, you get $12Mil.

$8Mil (or more!) of that went to Kinberg LOL.

 

[Raiders]

Seems like a bad year in movies, even after the huge opening for Endgame and John Wick, they took a nose dive. MIB will probably be the biggest flop of the year.
I think audience taste is changing back to wanting original concepts and not sequels and reboots.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Nice excuse but no. Us is the original IP that’s cracked the Top 10 of the year.

You might as well say there’s a comic book fatigue. But that’s also false. Make a good movie. And people will watch.

 

[Raiders]

Nice excuse but no. Us is the original IP that’s cracked the Top 10 of the year.

You might as well say there’s a comic book fatigue. But that’s also false. Make a good movie. And people will watch.

Making a good movie doesn’t guarantee success, marketing is the key. Opening weekend is all about marketing, after that comes WOM.
I don’t think there is comic book fatigue, I think there is sequel and reboot fatigue. The problem is studios only put big marketing money behind sequels and comic book movies. The movie “Us” is a perfect example of a movie that did well because it was original. Unfortunately this has been rare in recent years.

 

[shinlyle]

Seems like a bad year in movies, even after the huge opening for Endgame and John Wick, they took a nose dive. MIB will probably be the biggest flop of the year.
I think audience taste is changing back to wanting original concepts and not sequels and reboots.

Endgame took a sharp drop because it had a $300 million plus opening weekend. It's the number 2 movie domestic AND worldwide of all time. It pulled its weight. The problem is that the other films aren't pulling their weight. Captain Marvel and Avengers Endgame have made 3 billion plus between the two of them. Spider-Man Far From Home has a shot at it, and Toy Story 4 as well. The question is, where are the sleeper hits? Usually, there are a couple of surprise hits that help. This year, we haven't seen any.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I think there is sequel and reboot fatigue.

Ok I'll bite.

What?? You keep saying fatigue but I don't think you actually know what it means.

 

[Iceman]

Seems like a bad year in movies, even after the huge opening for Endgame and John Wick, they took a nose dive. MIB will probably be the biggest flop of the year.
I think audience taste is changing back to wanting original concepts and not sequels and reboots.

True, really bad. No way DP does $2.7B levels of bad though, don’t worry.

 

[Iceman]

Ok I'll bite.

What??

He’s right. I am fatigued from going to see Endgame so many times. Tiring stuff.

 

[Kuwolski]

I'm happy this franchise is crashing and burning at the end to be completely honest. Other then X2 and Logan which I loved, the rest were bad, mediocre, or highly overrated to me. Fox never tapped into the true potential or explored the X-Men as fully as we know them in the comics. This franchise should be as big as the Avengers, but that ship has sailed now. Good riddance Singer, Kinberg and everyone else.

I don't count the Deadpool films as part of the X-franchise as some do. Absolutely two of my favorites.

 

[EnDz0n3]

He’s right. I am fatigued from going to see Endgame so many times. Tiring stuff.

Nine of the Top 10 movies in the Domestic Box Office for the year are "sequels" or "reboots" but sure there's a "sequel and reboot fatigue." LOL