Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[Detective Conan]

Per Variety



So looking at 40-50 mil in the US as of right now. But, I am thinking it may go lower. Like $35 mil maybe. Given this RT score, I expect bad WoM.

If this opens less than Shazam! domestically I will lol so hard.

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[EnDz0n3]

SilverLinings
Kinberg Playbook:

"Hey guys, lookee here! Shiny object!

‘Dark Phoenix’ To Beat ‘Secret Life of Pets 2’ In $170M Global Opening – Deadline

 

[Jake_Snake]

I feel bad for Fassbender and McAvoy. Those two always give out their best, regardless of the material and/or script.

 

[daddydivine]

I feel bad for Fassbender and McAvoy. Those two always give out their best, regardless of the material and/or script.

Way too talented to have to be directed by Kinberg. I hope Marvel finds a spot for them somewhere in the MCU. As other characters of course.

 

[Kuwolski]

Yeah, I'll never hate on those guys. Two of my favorite actors and two of the best working.

 

[psylockolussus]

MiB is tracking for a $20m opening... bad time for wannabe blockbusters

WoW. Thats low.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Way too talented to have to be directed by Kinberg. I hope Marvel finds a spot for them somewhere in the MCU. As other characters of course.

Of course

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I feel bad for Fassbender and McAvoy. Those two always give out their best, regardless of the material and/or script.

James is my favorite actor, but I don't really feel bad for either of them. They made plenty of cash out of this franchise and they seemed to have a good time making them.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

MiB is tracking for a $20m opening... bad time for wannabe blockbusters

Where are you getting those numbers? Boxofficepro's last long term tracking update for it, had MIBI looking at 40m.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood-quentin-tarantino/

 

[TMP98]

Where are you getting those numbers? Boxofficepro's last long term tracking update for it, had MIBI looking at 40m.

Pre-sale numbers from BoxOfficeTheory. Granted it assumes that MiB won't be pre-sale heavy, so if there's less up-front demand it could do even worse.

I feel bad for Fassbender and McAvoy. Those two always give out their best, regardless of the material and/or script.

I saw Steve Jobs again last night and Fassbender deserved the Oscar for that. He's so good in it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Pre-sale numbers from BoxOfficeTheory. Granted it assumes that MiB won't be pre-sale heavy, so if there's less up-front demand it could do even worse.

Are we talking forums here? While they are good at the analysis, pre-sale numbers can only say so much.

 

[Raiders]

My only point was the audience now wants more originality. But there is a certain fanbase that takes offense to a harmless opinion.

The XMen franchise is old,19 years is a long time, definitely a fatigue franchise. Every good thing must come to an end.

 

[halo10]

as i have always said ... let YOU decide what you like, ... if the movie satisfies you ... and do not
let the critics rating do the thinking, critique and judging for you.

 

[halo10]

Will this movie even make $50Mil opening weekend? Even the originally forecasted $47Mil is in doubt. Yikes. At the very least this will top Fan4stic's $25Mil opening weekend but that's hardly a win.

based off the usual huge Marvel comic fan base, it should be at least in the 70 million range over the weekend.

i'm still stunned that as popular as Xmen are as a comic book, they have NEVER eclipsed and reached the 100 million opening weekend mark...

Not even the best of the Xmen or Xmen -related movies (X2, Xmen, 1st Class, Days of Future Past, Logan, Wolverine) have achieved that feat.

Why is that ? (never maxing 100 million at box office on opening weekend) .....

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Both Deadpool movies did.

But I do think it is important to remember that comic books (and cartoons) are a very niche audience compared to the much, much larger regular film-going audience. Just because one is popular doesn't necessarily mean that a film adaptation is going to connect with the general public. And the main X-Men team films simply haven't connected for whatever reasons. It is more than the inconsistent quality too. DC has been just as inconsistent, but when DC does get things right (TDKT, Wonder Woman, Aquaman) people will still show up in spite of the failures. There have been good X-Men films, but it seems like the Deadpool ones are the only ones that people truly fell in love with. Maybe Logan.

 

[jignat]

Didnt X3 make a 100 million in the US in 2006?

I feel the DPH will make between $25-30 M in the US this weekend.

What do you guys think?

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

$45 million or so would be my guess based off estimates and reviews, but I'm not very good at predictions.

 

[psylockolussus]

Didnt X3 make a 100 million in the US in 2006?

I feel the DPH will make between $25-30 M in the US this weekend.

What do you guys think?

Yes, X3 performed ma$$ive in the opening weekend.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Yes, X3 performed ma$$ive in the opening weekend.

Apparently it did $102,750,665 (3 day) so it just hit the mark.

 

[psylockolussus]

Good God, if it opened with less than 40 million. X-Men movies are known for their bad legs and big 2nd weekend drop and this film won't be an eXception. There's no way it could hit 100million mark with an opening weekend of under 40million as the film would need a 2.5+ multiplier to hit 100million mark.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Seems like a bad year in movies, even after the huge opening for Endgame and John Wick, they took a nose dive. MIB will probably be the biggest flop of the year.
I think audience taste is changing back to wanting original concepts and not sequels and reboots.

Uh, what? John Wick 3 is doing fantastically. Already well past the first two films in the series, and has gone past 225m, with gas left in the tank. Endgame is going to end up the highest grossing film of all time. You literally couldn't be more wrong about those two movies. Captain Marvel did fantastically, and Aladdin is doing well.

As for future releases this year. Do you expect Toy Story 4, Spider-Man, the Lion King, Frozen 2, and Star Wars all to not break a billion?

 

[EnDz0n3]

My only point was the audience now wants more originality. But there is a certain fanbase that takes offense to a harmless opinion.

And the numbers from any of the movies, may they be sequels or reboots or adaptations of IPs that have come out in the past few years does not support that "opinion."

based off the usual huge Marvel comic fan base, it should be at least in the 70 million range over the weekend.

Huh? You assume Marvel fans are some monolithic group that all watch every Marvel movie.

i'm still stunned that as popular as Xmen are as a comic book, they have NEVER eclipsed and reached the 100 million opening weekend mark...

Not even the best of the Xmen or Xmen -related movies (X2, Xmen, 1st Class, Days of Future Past, Logan, Wolverine) have achieved that feat.

X-men making $54Mil in the year 2000 was a big deal. At the time it was the biggest non-sequel opening ever. The year it opened, X-men was the second biggest opening so far, following only Mi:2.

Spider-man 1 making $114 in 3 days two years later was unheard of.

X2 opening to $85Mil in 2003 was also a big deal. Matrix Reloaded, a bigger deal and a more pedigreed franchise back in the day, opened 2 weeks later to $90Mil. The two franchises were seen as rivals.

First Class came after the one-two punch of X3 and X-men Origins Wolverine. 'Nuff said.

Why is that ? (never maxing 100 million at box office on opening weekend) .....

You're right though, DOFP and Logan should have opened north of $100Mil.

 

[Fallen]

Chinese audience has rejected the movie.

7.5 on Maoyan: X战警：黑凤凰 - 猫眼电影 - 一网打尽好电影

 

[Iceman]

Damn, that’s not good either.