The G.I. Joe Box Office Prediction Thread

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

But you're discounting the fact that Fantastic 4 2 sucked considerably harder than the first one. If GI Joe 2 is as good or better than the first, it could exceed the original's box office take by a considerable margin.

Movie ticket sales should be compared on a movie-by-movie basis IMO. Not a series-by-series one.

Actually, FF2 is widely considered by fans a critics alike as the better movie of the 2, its just that it wasnt a significant enough improvement over the first to get people who saw the first back in the cinema.

One word: merchandising.

If a sequel gets made, it's not like it's going to come into your home and violate you. Just don't watch it.

If paramount gets all of the money from the merchandising, then I can see a sequel happening, based on BO only though, cant see it happening.

 

[Timstuff]

They don't get all the money, but they get enough royalties that they'll most likely want to go ahead with a second one. With Van Helsing and both Hulk movies (which TheVileOne loves comparing GI Joe to), the merchandising returns were mediocre at best. With GI Joe though, it's everywhere, and Hasbro is posting excellent revenues from it.

For an August release, GI Joe would be considered an overbudget movie. However it's also one of the biggest August hits on record, and since it's generated positive buzz from the general audience I wouldn't be surprised if the sequel gets a July release date. July = more people spending more money on movies, which = more potential profit.

ROC is doing about as well as one could realistically hope for an August release to do, and according to reports is meeting (and in terms of the first week, exceeding) Paramount's expectations. If Paramount was expecting the movie to be a flop, then why would they have even made it? The reason they were willing to spend 175 mil on this movie despite having an August release date, is because they are setting up for a franchise. The box office is just the first chapter, because they are likely also expecting the film's popularity to spread through DVD. Ultimately, this was a movie that was an investment, and the real payoff will be through merchandise sales (including DVD and Blu-Ray) and revenues from the sequels.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^Actually, the merchandise from Hulk did extremely well, the green fists had record sales, so it is valid to compare them really, I do hope we do get a sequel though, I enjoyed GI Joe as some mindless fun.

 

[terry78]

G.I. Joe is a brand that is synonomous with little boys for close to half a century. That **** will never get old...parents have been buying those toys for their kids for I don't even know how long.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

G.I. Joe is a brand that is synonomous with little boys for close to half a century. That **** will never get old...parents have been buying those toys for their kids for I don't even know how long.

That begs the question though, why isnt the movie doing better in the middle of the summer holidays?

 

[LostSon88]

1st week of August isn't really the "middle" of summer...in fact, its pretty much the end of it.

 

[Timstuff]

1st week of August isn't really the "middle" of summer...in fact, its pretty much the end of it.

Yup. This is one of those rare Augusts where summer goes out with a bang. One movie alone is pulling in over 200 mil, and District 9. The only movie that wasn't a dark horse / surprise hit was Inglourious Basterds, but that's only because everyone expected it to do well anyway.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

But you're discounting the fact that Fantastic 4 2 sucked considerably harder than the first one. If GI Joe 2 is as good or better than the first, it could exceed the original's box office take by a considerable margin.

Movie ticket sales should be compared on a movie-by-movie basis IMO. Not a series-by-series one.

I've acounted for everything, we simply just disagree.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

1st week of August isn't really the "middle" of summer...in fact, its pretty much the end of it.

Its the middle of the summer holidays when the kids are off though, at least in Europe it is.

 

[Timstuff]

Well Europe is a whole different story. In the US, a lot of kids start school up in mid-August. August is typically seen as being the end of the summer movie season, and typically the movies that come out this month don't do numbers anywhere near as big as in May, June, and July when the season is in full swing.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^I guess that explains it then, even then though, you'd think it would have a bigger opening at the start of August if the kids were still off.

 

[Jolly Rolly]

Van Helsing made $300 million worldwide and sold great on DVD and never got a sequel.

Just goes to show you that there are lots of stupid people worldwide.

The first Hulk movie made $132 million and over $200 million worldwide and never got a sequel.

Did you forget Hulk '08 with Edward Norton?

 

[Jolly Rolly]

That begs the question though, why isnt the movie doing better in the middle of the summer holidays?

And I don't even think kids are buying the ROC toys just us thirtysomething guys.

 

[LostSon88]

why would you think that?

 

[lespaul59]

My little cousin loves G.I. Joe after seeing the movie and he's only 6. And he got more Joe stuff than anything for his birthday. And around here where I live there was a lot of people doing back to school shopping the same weekend the movie came out.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Did you forget Hulk '08 with Edward Norton?

That wasnt a sequel though it was a re-do, and financed by a different comnpany so hardly counts.

And I don't even think kids are buying the ROC toys just us thirtysomething guys.

That wouldnt surprise me, I mean i'm sure the movie made some new fans as well who are buying it, but I bet its long time fans buying more than anything.

 

[TheVileOne]

Just goes to show you that there are lots of stupid people worldwide.


Did you forget Hulk '08 with Edward Norton?

Nope wasn't a sequel. Universal wouldn't make one. Marvel made a reboot movie that did pretty much the same as the 2003 movie business wise.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates $8,000,000 -34.5
DOM: $132,436,000

 

[Shadow-Guardian]

How much did ROC make so far in total?

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I think its total cume is now $265.3 at the moment i believe.

 

[lespaul59]

I went and finaly saw ROC again for a second time and still loved it and surprisingly there where probaly 20-30 there during the last matinay(spelling) showing. I was expecting to be one of a handfull of people. And after ward while look for ROC figures a little boy and his parents walked by one of the end cap displays at Target and the little kid was like it's Snake Eyes. So little kids do know who the characters are.

 

[Super78]

The toys are actually doing great business from what I'm hearing.

So, the movie did what it was intended to do I guess.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

How much exactly does Hasbro get from the merchandice sales? I only ask because, for me, the movie isnt doing great business at the BO.

Does it have any major international markets to open in yet?

 

[TheVileOne]

Hot Blog comments on GI JOE's current status:

GI Joe looks like it is heading to a $300m worldwide final. 6 years after Hulk did $245m worldwide, you're looking at a similar financial situation. GI Joe will be trying to get out of the red ink for years to come - a couple of million DVD units will make the difference between a loss and a breakeven film - but is not an unmitigated financial disaster. Then the question of the sequel... and if you think an announcement is the same as a film getting made, you are too green to live. Marvel lost money on The Incredible Hulk, even though it did a better job of giving the core audience what it wanted. It grossed slightly more than the first Hulk film... but cost more - which says so much, given that when Universal made the first film in 2002/3, it was their priciest effort ever - and it lost money.

So do you make a GI Joe sequel? Do you try to rein in the budget? Didn't the kids come to see stuff blow up real big? It's not like they spent the budget they had on actors. I don't know. Does this studio want to be dragged through a sequel? Remember the public apologies that came out of Charlie's Angels; Full Frontal. Remember all the drama around M:I3? Could they mistake $300m from GI Joe for $700m from the first Transformers? And dare we invoke Superman Returns and its $391,081,192 worldwide gross? (No sequel for YOU, Bryan!)

 

[Timstuff]

There are several ways they can bump up GI Joe 2's profitability:

1) give it a 4th of July Weekend release date
2) Cut the budget down to 150 million and focus more on infantry shootouts than grand-scale CG battles
3) Not having to play second fiddle to a Transformers movie would help

GI Joe was an investment, and Paramount would not have released a 175 million movie in August if they weren't expecting to take a slight hit financially. The real payoff will be from toy sales, and sequels which will likely be bigger earners than the first one. By August standards GI Joe is a pretty big hit-- 300 million for an end of summer movie is nothing to scoff at. The issue at hand is that GI Joe's budget was disproportionate to its release window, and the only concievable reason for why is because Paramount and Hasbro expect that the sequels will be big enough hits that it won't matter in the long run if the first one only breaks even. They're not stupid-- they're not going to just throw 175 million at a movie and expect it to make back 600 million in August. Clearly Paramount is factoring a lot more into GI Joe's success than just the budget to box office gross ratio.