The G.I. Joe Box Office Prediction Thread

[rashad]

Monday numbers: $2,670,000
DOM gross: $101,247,529

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Van Helsing was very limited in merchandise sales though. Apparently Hasbro has already made as much money from selling GI Joe toys this to retailers this period as they did with Transformers 2 when it came out, and Paramount gets a cut of it.

Given that the movie has made 190 million WW in its first 10 days, I'd be very suprised if it doesn't pass the 300 million mark by the time it leaves theaters. Since it's tracking very similarly to Fantastic 4, I'm guessing its final WW box office tally will be about 360-380 million, with about 156-180 million of it coming from the US.

I'd wait for it's 3rd weekend before saying it's run is in line with Fantastic Four.

 

[rashad]

Foriegn gross: $94,247,748

 

[Timstuff]

I'd wait for it's 3rd weekend before saying it's run is in line with Fantastic Four.

From what we have seen so far though, its numbers are running in line with Fantastic 4.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

From what we have seen so far though, its numbers are running in line with Fantastic 4.

True, but I like to wait...movies boxoffice can be very unpredictable.

Because of a few great weekends everybody thought that Up was going to make 300mil but it's not because of a few bad ones...and competition I'm sure.

 

[Theweepeople]

GI Joe's numbers do look similar to Fantastic Four. However, the main difference is Fantastic Four had a more favorable release date in early July. I predict GI Joe will make somewhere in the domestic range of 130-150mil. It doesn't have much competition but, I doubt film it will have much staying power during the next couple of weeks considering that August is historically the weakest boxoffice grossing month of the summer for the film industry.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

GI Joe's numbers do look similar to Fantastic Four. However, the main difference is Fantastic Four had a more favorable release date in early July. I predict GI Joe will make somewhere in the domestic range of 130-150mil. It doesn't have much competition but, I doubt film it will have much staying power during the next couple of weeks considering that August is historically the weakest boxoffice grossing month of the summer for the film industry.

Exactly. Once School is fully back in it's weekdays are going to be s**t so it's going to have to start having some good weekend drops.

 

[dark_b]

whait a minute. this movie is making money?

 

[Marvin]

GI Joe's numbers do look similar to Fantastic Four. However, the main difference is Fantastic Four had a more favorable release date in early July. I predict GI Joe will make somewhere in the domestic range of 130-150mil. It doesn't have much competition but, I doubt film it will have much staying power during the next couple of weeks considering that August is historically the weakest boxoffice grossing month of the summer for the film industry.

it also has a similar look.

didn't both films use the eiffel tower for a set piece?
with the same lighting as well.

 

[Timstuff]

Exactly. Once Schoool is fully back in it's weekdays are going to be s**t so it's going to have to start having some good weekend drops.

Define a "good" weekend drop vs. a "bad" weekend drop, please.

 

[TheVileOne]

A good weekend drop, like in its second weekend, under 50% is pretty good. If its still dropping like 60% next weekend, that's bad.

 

[rashad]

Box Office Update
Weekend Estimate: $12,500,000 -44.00%
Domestic: $120,531,000
Foreign: $118,000,000
Worldwide: $235.5 million

 

[terry78]

Done and done. They will make a sequel.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

Done and done. They will make a sequel.

Bang! Yes they will.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^I would be surprised if they did, it hasnt made its budget back domestically and probably wont, depends how much they have made on merchandise.

 

[terry78]

It's a lot, it's G.I. Joe. That ******** makes money in its sleep.

 

[Jolly Rolly]

I see it finishing off at around $140,000,000 similiar to Hulk '08, I'm still scratching my head as to why it's still in the top 5.

 

[rashad]

^I would be surprised if they did, it hasnt made its budget back domestically and probably wont, depends how much they have made on merchandise.

$238.5 million is $238.5 million. Why are you assuming that a movie has to only make it's money back domestically to get a sequel greenlit? It's made it's budget back.

 

[deathshead2]

$238.5 million is $238.5 million. Why are you assuming that a movie has to only make it's money back domestically to get a sequel greenlit? It's made it's budget back.

Reports say it needs to break even at $350 million.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Now I will say it. It is running almost exactly in line with Fantastic Four. I still don't think it's going to make any money for the studio until DVD. Should it hit 150mil, I could see a sequel coming out in 2 years, a sequel that will follow F42's lead by making less than the first after opening with a little bit more and ultimately dooming the franchise.

 

[rashad]

Reports say it needs to break even at $350 million.

Well the budget's $175 million so of course it'll have to double that to break even.

 

[TheVileOne]

Van Helsing made $300 million worldwide and sold great on DVD and never got a sequel.

The first Hulk movie made $132 million and over $200 million worldwide and never got a sequel.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

$238.5 million is $238.5 million. Why are you assuming that a movie has to only make it's money back domestically to get a sequel greenlit? It's made it's budget back.

Maybe because with the domestic numbers studio's get 55% and with the international one's they only make 15%? BIG difference there, Terminator Salvation has done amazing internationally, better than this probably will, and it WONT be getting a sequel.

 

[Timstuff]

Now I will say it. It is running almost exactly in line with Fantastic Four. I still don't think it's going to make any money for the studio until DVD. Should it hit 150mil, I could see a sequel coming out in 2 years, a sequel that will follow F42's lead by making less than the first after opening with a little bit more and ultimately dooming the franchise.

But you're discounting the fact that Fantastic 4 2 sucked considerably harder than the first one. If GI Joe 2 is as good or better than the first, it could exceed the original's box office take by a considerable margin.

Movie ticket sales should be compared on a movie-by-movie basis IMO. Not a series-by-series one.

 

[Timstuff]

Van Helsing made $300 million worldwide and sold great on DVD and never got a sequel.

The first Hulk movie made $132 million and over $200 million worldwide and never got a sequel.

One word: merchandising.

If a sequel gets made, it's not like it's going to come into your home and violate you. Just don't watch it.