The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]523513[/split]

 

[writer0327]

I think this film is certain to outdo R1, but the question is will this outdo TFA? I think it will land somewhere in between.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't think Feige and Marvel Studios is a very relevant comparison overall, because the whole thing was such an underdog and upstart venture to begin with.

It could have failed, and then the whole thing would have gone under. But, by the time Age of Ultron rolled around, the MCU experiment had already succeeded so far beyond anyone's original expectations that a somewhat under-whelming Avengers sequel hardly mattered.

The MCU started with nothing and built itself into one of the most successful franchises worldwide.

Star Wars is not an upstart or an underdog. It is probably the biggest pop culture franchise in North America. Internationally, it is more of a mixed bag, though Star Wars certainly does very well in a lot of places.

So this franchise needs to be evaluated with that in mind. There is a whole spectrum of possible reactions in between "Fire everyone!" and "Everything is great!"

I think this movie won't justify either of those reactions. At the box office, it is probably going to be perceived as a little disappointing, but not overly so, depending on where the movie ends up, exactly.

But there are other factors to consider, such as the long-term strategy. So, we'll see. It's an interesting case.

How is everything not great?

 

[dataSlave]

How is everything not great?

By any other standard $500 mil domestic box office and similar international in 3 weeks would be huge. But no other franchise has set a $2.1 bil global bar either. And no other franchise saw anything like the $4.1 bil acquisition cost either. My background is financial analysis. Disney's corporate operating margin is around 15%. So for SW to make that margin on their initial investment would require about $600 mil profit per year. And that ignores the 3 years with very little revenue before the release of TFA.

Now TFA was a huge winner. The movie alone was worth $750-800 mil in profit to Disney and merchandise was probably another $450-500 mil. If TLJ does $1.4 bil globally, Disney's split should be 55-60% of gross (TFA was 50-55%). That's $770-840 mil revenue to Disney. I've seen production and marketing estimates anywhere from $420 mil to $550 mil. So $300-350 mil profit on the movie sounds about right.

 

[BatLobster]

I don't think Bob Iger or any analyst in their right mind expected a repeat of 2 billion +. There is historical precedence for the first film in a Star Wars trilogy to be the biggest earner, and there is simply no accounting for the lightning in a bottle aspect of the return of the OT characters after 30 years. "Chewie, we're home" sold all those tickets.

If this flatlines around 1.1 billion, sure, that could be considered a bit of an underperformance. But I still think it has a pretty clear shot at 1.4 or higher.

 

[InCali]

I think this film is certain to outdo R1, but the question is will this outdo TFA? I think it will land somewhere in between.

Did you come up with this all by yourself?

 

[Flemm]

How is everything not great?

As with any other franchise, they are looking to maximize its potential in the long term.

Star Wars has a very high potential.

So of course they are going to look at these results with a very critical eye.

Not doing so would be foolish, which they are not. As to what their assessment will be exactly, we will have to wait and see.

Among other things, Marvel Studios has been very good at assessing what works and what doesn't, and changing up the formula when appropriate. Ragnarok is a great recent example of that.

 

[InCali]

I don't think Bob Iger or any analyst in their right mind expected a repeat of 2 billion +. There is historical precedence for the first film in a Star Wars trilogy to be the biggest earner, and there is simply no accounting for the lightning in a bottle aspect of the return of the OT characters after 30 years. "Chewie, we're home" sold all those tickets.

If this flatlines around 1.1 billion, sure, that could be considered a bit of an underperformance. But I still think it has a pretty clear shot at 1.4 or higher.

Totally agree. There was NO chance of it getting to TFA numbers. None. As Darth pointed out ESB didn't do ANH numbers. I expect 7-9 to function similarly (relatively speaking) to 4-6, but 1.4B+ is a very big number (if TLJ hits it). Not impossible for a SW movie, but still a high bar.

 

[InCali]

As with any other franchise, they are looking to maximize its potential in the long term.

Star Wars has a very high potential.

So of course they are going to look at these results with a very critical eye.

Not doing so would be foolish, which they are not. As to what their assessment will be exactly, we will have to wait and see.

Among other things, Marvel Studios has been very good at assessing what works and what doesn't, and changing up the formula when appropriate. Ragnarok is a great recent example of that.

I think this happens with every release if the studio is smart. There is always room for improvement. That being said, I think Disney is quite happy with the numbers it's seeing. I figured around 1.5B and don't see any reason to change my mind just yet. It might be a bit south of that, but not by a whole lot.

 

[InCali]

How is everything not great?

If Avatar 2 doesn't hit within 10% of Avatar WW (2.5B more or less), it will be a huge disappointment....

Could it hit that number? Sure, if it's really good, but the first one was an almost once in a lifetime event and it's run was unprecedented. You don't often catch lightning in a bottle twice. It does have something of an advantage over TLJ because it's been quite some time since Avatar was on screen (unlike TFA).

Temper your expectations folks. 1.4-6B is a great showing. If Avatar comes in around there, it will be just fine. Would the producers like more? Sure, but a showing like that isn't going to deep six a franchise.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Totally agree. There was NO chance of it getting to TFA numbers. None. As Darth pointed out ESB didn't do ANH numbers. I expect 7-9 to function similarly (relatively speaking) to 4-6, but 1.4B+ is a very big number (if TLJ hits it). Not impossible for a SW movie, but still a high bar.

Co-signed.

 

[dataSlave]

One thing that gets lost a lot is that the original SW trilogy had a 3 year break between movies during a time of high inflation. TESB dropped 37% in nominal dollars vs SW but 45% in real (inflation adjusted dollars). RotJ was up 7% in nominal dollars but down 4% in real dollars.

The first to second film drop actually lines up well with the down 41% in real dollars from Ep 1 to Ep 2 in the second trilogy. If we take a 43% average drop, crank in 2% inflation for one year we've got a 42.2%. Match that against TFA's $936 mil domestic gross and you're looking at $541 million. TLJ should do better than that so its drop will be less than average for movie #2 in a SW trilogy.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

International update:

As it gets closer to the $1B worldwide mark, Star Wars: The Last Jedi has now shot well past $900M with $934.2M including Thursday’s grosses. The international box office portion was $22.7M for $469.6M to date. The $500M offshore threshold is approaching this weekend as is that $1B global milestone. Together, the three Star Wars titles since Disney acquired Lucasfilm have now topped $4B worldwide with $4.058B through yesterday.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/star-wa...-results-international-box-office-1202232602/

 

[007]

It will be interesting to see how this film effects the next ones box office.

People were always gonna see this one. Personally I can see the next one struggling. Rogue one numbers. Will be interesting to watch it unfold.

 

[Flemm]

Would the producers like more? Sure, but a showing like that isn't going to deep six a franchise.

Basically nothing would deep six Star Wars. It is too well-established. Even in the case of a huge failure, there would be every reason to try again. So that argument is either absurd or a straw man (frequently a straw man).

But "Everything is great!," "We are incredibly happy with these results!," that type of thing is mostly just a PR stance, which some fans get caught up in, or adopt, because they are rooting for something, one way or another.

In some cases, results are so obviously great or terrible that it is easy to assess.

But, in a borderline case like this, we won't really know for a while what the assessment was. Or whether that assessment was accurate.

It matters in the sense that it will affect future movies. I'm not really sure how it will play out.

I don't think the domestic figures will be much of a concern, simply because Star Wars has so much established interest in the US. Internationally, they would probably like better results in certain places.

 

[InCali]

It will be interesting to see how this film effects the next ones box office.

People were always gonna see this one. Personally I can see the next one struggling. Rogue one numbers. Will be interesting to watch it unfold.

Of course anything is possible. If I had to guess, I would say that Disney is going to pull out all the stops to make the next one spectacular. People tend to flock to the last show in a series (HP Deathly Hallows 2, RotJ, etc.) if it's been good (Are you listening Maze Runner, Divergent Series, etc.?).

I think there's a very good chance Ep 9 outdoes TLJ.

 

[InCali]

Basically nothing would deep six Star Wars. It is too well-established. Even in the case of a huge failure, there would be every reason to try again. So that argument is either absurd or a straw man (frequently a straw man).

But "Everything is great!," "We are incredibly happy with these results!," that type of thing is mostly just a PR stance, which some fans get caught up in, or adopt, because they are rooting for something, one way or another.

In some cases, results are so obviously great or terrible that it is easy to assess.

But, in a borderline case like this, we won't really know for a while what the assessment was. Or whether that assessment was accurate.

It matters in the sense that it will affect future movies. I'm not really sure how it will play out.

I don't think the domestic figures will be much of a concern, simply because Star Wars has so much established interest in the US. Internationally, they would probably like better results in certain places.

Or a deliberate exaggeration to make a point. We can disagree, but my main point is that I believe Disney IS happy with the returns. To reiterate, would they like higher BO receipts? Always. Blasting into the mid 500M DOM after 2 1/2 weeks, however, doesn't keep the champagne corked no matter what franchise you're talking about.

I do agree that we haven't seen what kind of late legs TLJ has and I think that'll be the difference between a solid success and a dynamite run.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't think Bob Iger or any analyst in their right mind expected a repeat of 2 billion +. There is historical precedence for the first film in a Star Wars trilogy to be the biggest earner, and there is simply no accounting for the lightning in a bottle aspect of the return of the OT characters after 30 years. "Chewie, we're home" sold all those tickets.

If this flatlines around 1.1 billion, sure, that could be considered a bit of an underperformance. But I still think it has a pretty clear shot at 1.4 or higher.

Only if they feel it'd represent an overall slide to the next film.

There hasn't been a film made yet where grossing over a billion would not equal great profits.

 

[Romannen]

Forbes are really going out of their way to defend this movie. Doesn't matter how they report this story. If the movie ends up like 1.2b (800m+ less than TFA) heads will roll at Disney.

If heads roll as a result of your movie making a big profit then I definitely wouldn't want to work for Disney.

 

[Mysteryman]

If heads roll as a result of your movie making a big profit then I definitely wouldn't want to work for Disney.

Yeah like 2 billion or DECAPITATION CITY!

 

[Mysteryman]

It will be interesting to see how this film effects the next ones box office.

People were always gonna see this one. Personally I can see the next one struggling. Rogue one numbers. Will be interesting to watch it unfold.

Rogue One numbers, a billion dollars, how is that struggling?

 

[spiderman2]

International update:

As it gets closer to the $1B worldwide mark, Star Wars: The Last Jedi has now shot well past $900M with $934.2M including Thursday’s grosses. The international box office portion was $22.7M for $469.6M to date. The $500M offshore threshold is approaching this weekend as is that $1B global milestone. Together, the three Star Wars titles since Disney acquired Lucasfilm have now topped $4B worldwide with $4.058B through yesterday.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/star-wa...-results-international-box-office-1202232602/

I think we are looking at around a 1.4 billion final. The movie should be around 1.1 billion by the end of Monday and should have around 100 million left USA maybe more. Its OS numbers are still around the USA numbers so I see it doing around 100 million there. That would mean 1.3 and I think that is worst cases. We also still have China left whitch should give it a small boost. Yes I know we are not going to get much from China with it not being that big in China and being very front loaded there but we should still get 40 million or so and that is still something. I think best we get like 1.5 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

Rogue One numbers, a billion dollars, how is that struggling?

If 9 makes a RO numbers that is stuggling. RO was a spin off meaning it should make less and it also is 3 years before 9 meaning 3 years of inflation and R0 numbers for episode 9 would mean a 50% drop from TFA even with 4 years of inflation on top of that.

 

[Darepool]

If it get's 1.5 billion that would be exceptional in my book

Even 1.3 billion is great, just not as great as most people expected, even in this poll.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

By any other standard $500 mil domestic box office and similar international in 3 weeks would be huge. But no other franchise has set a $2.1 bil global bar either. And no other franchise saw anything like the $4.1 bil acquisition cost either. My background is financial analysis. Disney's corporate operating margin is around 15%. So for SW to make that margin on their initial investment would require about $600 mil profit per year. And that ignores the 3 years with very little revenue before the release of TFA.

Now TFA was a huge winner. The movie alone was worth $750-800 mil in profit to Disney and merchandise was probably another $450-500 mil. If TLJ does $1.4 bil globally, Disney's split should be 55-60% of gross (TFA was 50-55%). That's $770-840 mil revenue to Disney. I've seen production and marketing estimates anywhere from $420 mil to $550 mil. So $300-350 mil profit on the movie sounds about right.

They already paid off their cost for Star Wars, which was rather cheap, and half paid in stocks.