The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Iceman]

Yep. Despite the NFL's problems, Super Bowl weekend is still going to knock down movie attendance.

True. And I guess most potentially big films purposefully avoid it.

 

[Limonade]

Week 8 ended yesterday.

Per theater average (weekly gross divided by theaters)
Week 1: TFA $94,547 RO $53,404 TLJ $70,086 (TLJ = RO +31.24%, TFA -25.87%)
Week 2: TFA $63,162 RO $36,897 TLJ $39,720 (TLJ = RO +7.65%, TFA -37.11%)
Week 3: TFA $28,644 RO $19,226 TLJ $19,911 (TLJ = RO +3.56%, TFA -30.49%)
Week 4: TFA $13,438 RO $7,166 TLJ $7,399 (TLJ = RO +3.25%, TFA -44.95%)
Week 5: TFA $10,230 RO $6,348 TLJ $5,645 (TLJ = RO -11.07%, TFA -44.82%)
Week 6: TFA $5,828 RO $3,750 TLJ $3,593 (TLJ = RO -4.19%, TFA -38.35%)
Week 7: TFA $5,644 RO $3,311 TLJ $3,195 (TLJ = RO -3.50%, TFA -43.39%)
Week 8: TFA $4,232 RO $2,453 TLJ $2,263 (TLJ = RO -7.75%, TFA -46.53%)

I take it any future talks about giving any SW property big screen priority is out the window.

It would be crazy for any company to demand such a thing from the theaters anyhow.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Movie would have done worse if not for that forcing agreement:

Wall Street Journal - Disney Lays Down the Law for Theaters on ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’
Exhibitors say the studio’s top-secret terms are the most onerous they have ever seen

LOS ANGELES—The box-office domination of the “Star Wars” franchise has given Walt Disney Co. unprecedented power over the nation’s movie theaters.

Before exhibitors can begin screening “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” this December, they must first commit to a set of top-secret terms that numerous theater owners say are the most onerous they have ever seen. Disney will receive about 65% of ticket revenue from the film, a new high for a Hollywood studio. Disney is also requiring theaters to show the movie in their largest auditorium for at least four weeks.

Ignoring the terms carries an unusual penalty. If a theater violates any condition of the distribution agreement, Disney can take an additional 5% cut, bringing the studio’s total haul to 70% of sales on a movie likely to gross more than $500 million at the domestic box office.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney...heaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603

 

[spiderman2]

So I have not really looked at how the movie is doing for the last like 3 weeks other then just what its told is. So I am just wondering are its OS legs still doing better then its USA ones?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So I have not really looked at how the movie is doing for the last like 3 weeks other then just what its told is. So I am just wondering are its OS legs still doing better then its USA ones?

In terms of overall legs, OS-China (2.88x) is better than domestic (2.79x). So TLJ will be the first SW movie under Disney regime (maybe in all of SW history as well) to register a better OS multiplier than it's domestic multiplier. For TFA, domestic was 3.78x and OS was 3.59x. For R1, domestic was 3.43x and OS was 3.37x. TLJ has had much better drops in the OS markets than in the domestic market. So yeah, OS legs has been better.

 

[AverageMan]

Just passed Frozen to go #9 all time.

Needs another $20m to pass Harry Potter Deathly Hallows to go #8.

Can't see ti getting another $20m personally.

 

[Gladius Nova]

Just passed Frozen to go #9 all time.

Needs another $20m to pass Harry Potter Deathly Hallows to go #8.

Can't see ti getting another $20m personally.

Didn't it pass Frozen a couple of weeks ago? It won't pass HP unless it gets a re-release further down the road. Maybe in 2019 right before the release of Episode IX.

 

[AverageMan]

Didn't it pass Frozen a couple of weeks ago? It won't pass HP unless it gets a re-release further down the road. Maybe in 2019 right before the release of Episode IX.

It could well have done it a few weeks ago, it's only now I've noticed though. t:

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

RO's earnings after Day 59 = $5,014,368
The Avengers (total gross) - TLJ (Day 59) = $6,524,218

RO's earnings after Day 59 - 6% = $4,713,506
RO's earnings after Day 59 + 6% = $5,315,230
RO's earnings after Day 59 + 30.2% = $6,528,707

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Weekly box office

(or click link to enlarge)

Week 9 ended yesterday.

Per theater average (weekly gross divided by theaters)
Week 1: TFA $94,547 RO $53,404 TLJ $70,086 (TLJ = RO +31.24%, TFA -25.87%)
Week 2: TFA $63,162 RO $36,897 TLJ $39,720 (TLJ = RO +7.65%, TFA -37.11%)
Week 3: TFA $28,644 RO $19,226 TLJ $19,911 (TLJ = RO +3.56%, TFA -30.49%)
Week 4: TFA $13,438 RO $7,166 TLJ $7,399 (TLJ = RO +3.25%, TFA -44.95%)
Week 5: TFA $10,230 RO $6,348 TLJ $5,645 (TLJ = RO -11.07%, TFA -44.82%)
Week 6: TFA $5,828 RO $3,750 TLJ $3,593 (TLJ = RO -4.19%, TFA -38.35%)
Week 7: TFA $5,644 RO $3,311 TLJ $3,195 (TLJ = RO -3.50%, TFA -43.39%)
Week 8: TFA $4,232 RO $2,453 TLJ $2,263 (TLJ = RO -7.75%, TFA -46.53%)
Week 9: TFA $5,062 RO $2,308 TLJ $2,393 (TLJ = RO +3.68%, TFA -52.73%)

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Deadline - ‘Black Panther’ Goes Wild: 2nd Best Sunday $59M+; 3-Day $201M+; 4-Day To Shred ‘Jurassic World’ & Possibly ‘Last Jedi’

T’Challa has recorded the second best Sunday ever at the domestic B.O. with an estimated $59.55M per industry estimates tonight, filing behind the all-time record held by Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($60.5M on Dec. 20, 2015). This now pushes Black Panther to a 3-day between $201M-$202M; still the 5th best domestic opening of all-time after 2012’s Avengers ($207.4M).

But here’s where it gets crazy: Rivals are literally forecasting that the Ryan Coogler-directed Marvel movie could take the record for the second-best 4-day opening of all-time with $241M-$243M after Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($288M). In that case, Black Panther would slaughter the Friday-Monday hauls of Avengers ($226.3M) Jurassic World ($234.1M), and, yes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.6M).

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

TLJ 4-day opening: $241,565,957

new Black Panther daily studio estimates (202M 3-day, 235M 4-day)
Day 1: $75,808,000 (BP = TLJ -27.58%)
Day 2: $65,893,000 (BP = TLJ +2.97%)
Day 3: $60,096,000 (BP = TLJ +17.07%)
Day 4: $33,203,000 (BP = TLJ +54.03%)

It gets harder on Day 5 once people are back at school and work.

EDIT:

Black Panther right beside TFA on Sunday and Monday according to box office insider at the BoT forum. "Monday is basically a rehash of Sun either going to beat Monday record or go very close to it". If true that would put BP ahead of TLJ for the first four days in total with $242M or close to it (if the other weekend estimates hold).

BP (Feb. 2018): Day 1 est. $75,808,000 (TLJ -27.58%, TFA -36.36%) Day 2 est. $65,893,000 (TLJ +2.97, TFA -3.52%) Day 3 est. $60,096,000 (TLJ +17.07%, TFA -0.76%) Day 4 (Rth claim) ~$40,109,742 (TLJ +86.07%, TFA +-0.00%)

Monday night update: #BlackPanther could now come in at $242M or more after a possible record-breaking Monday that beats @starwars FORCE AWAKENS’ unadjusted $40.1M. History-making is an understatement.

https://***********/PamelaDayM/status/965842322373017600 (The Hollywood Reporter)

EDIT:

Deadline - ‘Black Panther’ Goes Wild: At $242M+ Superhero Owns 2nd Best 4-Day Opening & Defeats ‘Last Jedi’

Industry morning estimates indicate that Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther has cleared $242M, which means that the superhero now owns the second-best 4-day opening of all-time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($288.07M) and slashes the FSSM run of Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.6M) last December. It’s still early and Disney has yet to call the record. The 4-day for Black Panther should be around $242.4M. Ticket sales for the Ryan Coogler-directed movie were -34% on Presidents Day Monday for $40M-$40.1M. With those figures, Black Panther could very well own the all-time Monday domestic record as well, beating Force Awakens’ $40.1M. Another big winner for Disney, which now owns eight of the top 10 slots on the all-time domestic openers chart. Black Panther slotted 5th this weekend with $201.8M, and it’s only one of five titles to crack past the two-century mark in a three-day period.

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/
Star Wars: The Last Jedi President's Day Weekend actuals: $776,562 (TLJ = TFA -81.53%, RO -22.03%)
Day 64: $132,463 (TLJ = TFA -85.57%, RO -25.30%)
Day 65: $263,352 (TLJ = TFA -85.19%, RO -21.76%)
Day 66: $221,883 (TLJ = TFA -81.69%, RO -20.01%)
Day 67: $158,864 (TLJ = TFA -46.49%, RO -22.39%)

Black Panther President's Day Weekend actuals: $242,155,680 (BP = TFA -15.94%, TLJ +0.24%)
Day 1: $75,941,146 (BP = TFA -36.25%, TLJ -27.46%)
Day 2: $65,995,366 (BP = TFA -3.37%, TLJ +3.13%)
Day 3: $60,067,439 (BP = TFA -0.80%, TLJ +17.02%)
Day 4: $40,151,729 (BP = TFA +0.10%, TLJ +86.26%)

 

[Warlock]

@MagnarTheGreat

Black Panther beats TLJ for a 4 day weekend. I have to say, I did not see that coming.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Day 70: The Last Jedi current gross: $618,375,718
Day 70: The Last Jedi current multiplier (total gross divided by opening): 2.81
Day 70: Amount of money Rogue One had left to earn: $3,156,780
Day 64 to 70: % The Last Jedi trailed Rogue One: -21.18%
Day 140 (May 2017): Last day Rogue One was tracked in theaters. The Last Jedi would end up with a final tally of $620,863,892 by same day if no further change versus Rogue One.

Week 10 ended yesterday.

line graphs:

Spoiler

 

[Silver Surfer]

Any chance this beats TA's domestic number? Needs about 5 million more to cross it.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Any chance this beats TA's domestic number?

Zero chance. TA to TLJ from (4-5) weeks back

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Week 12 ended on Thursday, March 8, 2018.

(click link to enlarge image)

Notes:
For the first time since the 4 week screen mandate expired, during weeks 11 & 12 TLJ played in more theaters than RO did. During Week 12 the theater count gap became bigger.
Black Panther third week take ahead of TLJ, Jurassic World, and The Avengers; only below The Force Awakens and Avatar.

 

[Freebird65]

Sorry if this is the wrong place, but I haven't seen this talked about anywhere.

I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but based on the evidence so far it would seem TLJ is not selling very well in home release. Over the last several days I've been checking Amazon's list of the 100 best-selling movies and TV shows (the list is updated hourly and I've checked it several times each day), and NOT ONCE have I seen TLJ made an appearance on this list.

Now you might say, well sure, the bluray/DVD isn't even out yet so that explains why it's not on the list of the 100 best sellers. Except that many other films on the list are not out yet. Jumanji (out on March 20) and The Greatest Showman (out on April 10) are both always in the top 10 best sellers. Pitch Perfect 3 (March 20), Fifty Shades Freed (May 8) and The Post (April 17) are also always among the top 100 best sellers, usually in the top 50. And other unreleased films and TV shows occasionally pop up on the list. But TLJ, a supposedly major blockbuster and the eighth installment in the main Star Wars Saga, has never once appeared among the top sellers on Amazon just two weeks before its release. At least as far as I can tell.

Funnily enough, some other Star Wars movies are making the list. Rogue One is always on the list, usually among the bottom 20, but still there. The Force Awakens is often on the list, and sometimes the set of the complete Saga (Episodes I-VI) makes the list of the top 100. But never never The Last Jedi.

I'm sure some people will tell me it doesn't mean anything, but I thought it was very interesting.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Week 14 ended yesterday, March 22, 2018.

 

[danoyse]

Sorry if this is the wrong place, but I haven't seen this talked about anywhere.

I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but based on the evidence so far it would seem TLJ is not selling very well in home release. Over the last several days I've been checking Amazon's list of the 100 best-selling movies and TV shows (the list is updated hourly and I've checked it several times each day), and NOT ONCE have I seen TLJ made an appearance on this list.

Now you might say, well sure, the bluray/DVD isn't even out yet so that explains why it's not on the list of the 100 best sellers. Except that many other films on the list are not out yet. Jumanji (out on March 20) and The Greatest Showman (out on April 10) are both always in the top 10 best sellers. Pitch Perfect 3 (March 20), Fifty Shades Freed (May 8) and The Post (April 17) are also always among the top 100 best sellers, usually in the top 50. And other unreleased films and TV shows occasionally pop up on the list. But TLJ, a supposedly major blockbuster and the eighth installment in the main Star Wars Saga, has never once appeared among the top sellers on Amazon just two weeks before its release. At least as far as I can tell.

Funnily enough, some other Star Wars movies are making the list. Rogue One is always on the list, usually among the bottom 20, but still there. The Force Awakens is often on the list, and sometimes the set of the complete Saga (Episodes I-VI) makes the list of the top 100. But never never The Last Jedi.

I'm sure some people will tell me it doesn't mean anything, but I thought it was very interesting.

It’s not on the list because the DVD/blu-ray is not available for pre-order on Amazon. It’s part of an ongoing snit between Disney and Amazon that’s been going on for awhile. Right now, the only blu-ray available is from a 3rd party seller (and it’s $50?!).

Same thing happens with Marvel and Disney animated films. It will be available some time after the release date, but not before.

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah I was planning to buy Ragnarok from Amazon but they never had it up for pre-order so I got mine from Best Buy on the day of release instead.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That is such a weird pissing contest.

 

[Reaver027]

It’s not on the list because the DVD/blu-ray is not available for pre-order on Amazon. It’s part of an ongoing snit between Disney and Amazon that’s been going on for awhile. Right now, the only blu-ray available is from a 3rd party seller (and it’s $50?!).

Same thing happens with Marvel and Disney animated films. It will be available some time after the release date, but not before.

Thats a US problem i assume?
Because i was able to preorder the TLJ Steelbook from Amazon with no problem. And i don't even plan to watch the movie more than one more time in english. This is pretty much just for collection purposes.

 

[danoyse]

Yeah, it’s been going on for ages. I bought the last few Marvel blu-rays at Target. I got Rogue One at the Disney Store last year, and I pre-ordered TLJ there just to get the lithograph set. Amazon usually puts the discs up after the release date, but I won’t bother then because they annoyed me by not putting up the preorder.

 

[Flint Marko]

So is this a disappointment relative to expectations? Out of everyone who I regularly talk movies with, only two of them have said they liked the movie. Seems this might have left money on the table by souring some fans and bringing the WOM down.